The Malay ground took to the streets in 1998 after Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim's arrest, humiliation, and jailing. It was brutally put down. Key figures in the Malay ground are arrested, detained, jailed, charged in courts to warn others of their fate if they continue backing the jailed politician. The consequent peace of the graveyard is touted as proof that all is well. But this election unleased an angrier Malay ground: it is convinced all is not right, and holds the Pak Lah government and the EC responsible for it. The BN and UMNO politicians are angry with their leaders and the new cabinet marionettes who dance not to not one puppet master but a hundred. Pak Lah, to be fair, tries to reverse the trend, but it is a task beyond him. He did not have the time to settle in his job, or even reflect on what he ought to do. His first task should be to get this right, but he has no help. His cabinet says what it likes when it likes, policies and plans continue to be announced which commits Malaysia to billions of ringgit we do not have.

The UMNO president knows his weakness, and that the BN parties are now like foxes outside an unguarded chicken coop, ready to swoop when attention is diverted. It is not that easy. The UMNO's brilliant showing comes with a party that threatens to break asunder if this unspoken and unmentioned rebellion takes root. The near total victory can only be managed if there is firm leadership at the top. There seems to be none now. The former prime minister, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, brooked no rebellion - and he made that dramatically, but with such disastrous results, when he sacked, arrested, humiliated his chosen heir, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim - and, by and large, he succeeded. But he stayed too long, did not allow Pak Lah enough time to succed him in his own right. The warlords flexed their muscles. Even before the general elections. After it, important UMNO leaders joined them. More did after the UMNO supreme council decided that the prime minister and deputy prime minister would be challenged as UMNO president and deputy president. This was unwise. There is no UMNO president and deputy president now. How could the supreme council take it upon themselves to decide the two posts would not be challenged?

The 2004 General Elections should have been no different. The BN would have won with its two-thirds and more majority. The Opposition would have held its ground, or even lose some of it. But the BN realised the old practices cannot work. The Pendang parliamentary and Anak Bukit state assembly byelections in Kedah - it won one, lost the other - two years ago hinted at the dangers ahead: the BN could not depend on the Malay ground, disenchanted with it since Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim was sacked, jailed, humiliated and beaten to a pulp in defiance of Malay cultural rules, and that divide forced it to a new alignment with the Chinese and the bumiputras of Sarawak and Sabah. It was equally important for PAS to be sidelined. In Parliament, it showed up a BN front bench as the Malaysian Keystone Cops, bumbling and bungling its way from one relentless parliamentary question to another, unable to debate the issues, frightened when PAS leaders stand up to speak, unwilling to stand up, running away from the chamber when the issues got an uncomfortably close airing. So it enhanced the advantage it had with the new electoral boundaries with a little skullduggery of its own.

It puts Pak Lah in a spot. Despite his solid victory, he sits atop an uneasy throne. He cannot assign blame to the EC. For it is he who must protest the loudest at this deliberate hijacking of the general election, at the moment by parties unknown, to make his tenure uncomfortable. He should have relied on his personal popularity, and the tremendous goodwill he had as the new prime minister, and built on that. The longer he continues, without addressing the growing doubt that this general election is irrevocably flawed, the more the ground would move away from the BN, and him personally. The Malay ground is furious. It feels cheated. The creative delineation of the constituencies, when large sections of Chinese communities were added to solid Malay seats inclined to PAS and the Opposition has raised a demon more serious than what the former deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim created. The BN and Pak Lah believes they can ride the storm, but they view the world from the eye of the storm, unaware of the violence out of it. But make no mistake, they would slip into the violence if they do nothing about it. For a start, they must consider fresh elections for the Selangor state assembly. But they cannot stop there. They could have in the week or so after the polls. Not now. More dramatic measures must be taken to erase the growing view that we are now descending into the elections favoured of African presidents, where elections are held to vote them into power. God forbid if that should be the fate of elections in Malaysia.

As a result, Pak Lah sits atop an uneasy throne, the country divided as never before, more so than after the former deputy prime minister was sacked, arrested, beaten, humiliated and jailed. If this could have got the Malay ground to desert UMNO at the 1999 general election, this time it is not only more serious but this divide could well be permanent unless the BN drastically correct it. There is no hope of that. Especially when both the BN and PAS, in the opposition, miscalculated Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim's impact on the polls. Both lost ground, one culturally, the other at the polls. PAS all but ignored the Anwar impact, conducted a campaign without him. It lost ground badly. It still does not have the killer instict to take the BN head on, although it has a formidable election machinery. It should have rode on the Anwar affair, but it decided not to, and paid the price.

One example will suffice. He says, in a press conference, that 5,000 ballot papers in Lumut were not returned. He said many sailors were out at sea, and could not vote on the day specified. He talks nonsense. If all our naval ships were out at sea at the same time, which is unlikely, no more than 2,000 sailors would be on board. As far as I know, the RMN does not have an aircraft carrier, not do we have plans for one. If we had, Tan Sri Rashid would be right. If they have to vote at a specific point, why were the ballot papers not issued only to those who came to vote? Why was it given out to all and sundry as he says they were? The government cannot keep quiet now. It is in the thick of it as surely as the EC is. Keeping quiet or ignoring the result of the EC's handiwork is not an option. The ground seethes in anger at being taken for a ride. There are no outward signs of it, but talk to the ordinary man in the street, and you would an anger that seems to surpass even at the political destruction of Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The widespread goodwill the new prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, before the general election is all but depleted. For that he must thank Tan Sri Rashid and the EC. No one else could have done it so efficiently. Certainly not the Opposition.

But Pak Lah and Dato' Seri Najib, acting the vacant posts, do not want to be challenged. What happened in the 1978 UMNO elections is worrying enough. The then president, Dato' (later Tun) Hussein Onn, was challenged by Dato' Sulaiman Palestine (ironically, in the light of subsequent events, the maternal uncle of the ousted and battered former deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim). About 30 per cent of the delegates backed the challenger. This threw Tun Hussein out of gear, the remaining three years spent in how to retreat gracefully after this unacceptable feudal challenge. Dato' Sulaiman himself was to claim he did not get what he was promised, and would reveal in clinical detail to any who would listen. Rumours that it was Dr Mahathir who put him up to it was current at the UMNO general assembly.

AT EVERY MALAYSIAN GENERAL election, the governing coalition, once known as the Alliance and now the National Front (BN), had the edge. It has dominated politics since the first in 1955. It has governed all the states but it has now lost control of two Malay states and could well, if it loses ground, two more. But for the first time, in the 2004 election, the old magic did not work. It did not know until 48 hours before polling tomorrow (21 March 2004) that the ground shifts from it. The BN president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, went into the polls believing all is well, that the Anwar shock in 1999 would not bother it now, the same short term magic of the past would damn the Opposition as it almost always has. But his optimistic hopes for an electoral sweep - he aims for a four-fifths majority in parliament - had to be drastically revised downwards as the BN had to fight for every inch of ground. And the stark reality that every plan to trap the Opposition backfired on it instead. The arrest of two BN workers for entrapment shocked the BN heirarchy and it quickly distanced itself from it. Its plan failed. It is not difficult to see why. Those who would have carried out this plan include those who moved to PAS and KeADILan after Dato' Seri Anwar was sacked, humiliated and jailed. They moved to neutralise the BN plan.

The 1998 Anwar affair revealed a stark truth. The opposition to BN would, from now on, come not from the Chinese-based and ideologically different political parties, but from the Malay political parties and organisations that disagrees with its worldview. This is reflected in those detained under the Internal Security Act: all, but for a handful, are Malays regarded in Putra Jaya as on the wrong side of the fence. The BN government is caught in a vice about them: several are on a hunger strike, sustained only with water, but it is so serious that they are forcibly removed to hospital to be force-fed. Little is reported in the mainstream media it controls, especially during the election campaign. But it is a live issue, like the Anwar affair, in the Malay heartland. The issue is their detention for alleged links with the Taliban and other far-right Muslim groups, especially after the son of the prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is cleared of all wrong doing in making centrifuge parts for nuclear weapons in a company he controlled. What is sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. But not in Malaysia. Here Napolean, as in George Orwell's Animal Farm, will always be better treated than Snowball.

That had one unintended effect. UMNO to meet the growing threat of PAS, after 1999, had to be seen to be more Islamic than its rival for the Malay heartland. With the multiracial parties sidelined, UMNO had to best PAS on its turf. Malaysia is declared an Islamic state, the judicial system gives equal status to civil and syariah law, and now, the prime minister announces, in the election campaign, that Muslim pupils must study the Quran from the first year of school. This, he insists, would not affect the non-Muslim pupils. As usual, this is a gut reaction not thought out properly. It does not matter. PAS would accept it wholeheartedly. The BN and UMNO is pushed further into changing the character of the Malaysian state in a debate, like in Iran in the 1970s, where the other secular and non-Islamic views were battened down. KeADILan, even with its raison d'etre the release of its eminence grise, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, promised that hope. But UMNO wanted nothing more than to see it destroyed, and is now caught in the islamic dilemma.

He is cossetted between by the unstated but implied pressure on the one side from his predecessor, who is, in typical Malaysian political fashion, a non-person but unlike it wields considerable influence behind the scenes; and, on the other, the twin pressures of a resurgent PAS and the cultural miscalculation that stemmed from how his predecessor, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, was humiliated, against Malay feudal practice. Both are understated now, the BN in fact insists both are non-issues, though it is more afraid of PAS than of Dato' Seri Anwar. His first major problem is to remove Tun Mahathir's influence in UMNO, Parliament and the state assemblies. Many of those removed in this month's general election are to remove his influence. This has worked well, but in the states, he did not find it plain sailing at all. In Trengganu, UMNO division leaders and members not given a constituency contest walked out from its election office, in one case burning it down, leaving the party machinery in a lurch. In Perak, one UMNO division would not allow a BN component party leader to contest in what was always an UMNO seat. In two states, Johore and Pahang, the list was released at the last possible moment, but not after high drama.

It would have continued this way but for how the then Prime Minister, Dato' Seri (now Tun) Mahathir Mohamed, destroyed and humiliated in 1998 his chosen successor, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, now reeling in pain in his cell in Sungei Buloh prison. It caused the first major shift in Malay thinking since independence. The Malay, with his acute sense of justice and fair play, and shocked beyond belief, moved away from UMNO's political and cultural protection. He remains on the sidelines waiting to see who the winner is before he commits himself to that side. UMNO and the coalition it leads, BN, has tried its best to wean them back, without success. It is this that enabled the Opposition political parties, especially PAS, to make headway. The Malay vote is split, and the BN cannot depend on it anymore. Hence in the general election, all focus is on the Chinese vote, now solidly with the BN even if the leaders of the Chinese political parties are in bad odour with the new Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. UMNO's strong-armed control of the BN political partners has no principle behind it, but a vague sense of political unity which is not sustained with reasoned thought. This, to be fair, is not with BN alone. Every political party, in BN and the Opposition, are guilty of it. In the opposition it is not as critical since they do not hold power, and it has the luxury of internal debate. Even then, a few, like the DAP, does not allow too much of it.

Keadilanis a roasted party, partly because many of its gumball leaders meet in all these eateries and cafes aligning themselves to Anwar and then suddenly finding themselves back to square one after 1999. They are bereft of issues, their only call for survival is on Anwar, and that too is waning really, really badly. Will there actually be Keadilan in future? Its embalmment with the PRM is looking like the marriage of two dead identities. They must find an issue other than Anwar which could last for at least the next 20 years to remain a credible force. If not, I even fear for Wan Azizah in Permatang Pauh. Anwar is a foregone conclusion, even if he makes a return now he would have lost all his zeal and finesse. It would be best for Keadilan to shut the book on him and move on. If his case goes up again, maybe he will get his day, but that is it. Nothing more, nothing less.

The UMNO mystique in the Malay heartland is under attack. Pekan, for all its closeness to the state capital of Kuantan and the superficial modernity that marks for progress in present day Malaysia, is in the thick of it. It is a constituency which must be nurtured. His father assiduously did in his years in office. He was deputy prime minister in his thirties, and died at 53, the age when his son became deputy prime minister. Dato' Seri Najib, in many ways a more consummate politician than his father, however, ignored his ground, and allowed the opposition to build a base within it. Not all of it is his own fault, but he must bear a large share of the blame. The urbane sophistication that makes him a welcome guest at No. 10 Downing Street or the White House is seen amongst his constituents as plain old-fashioned arrogance, and this in a society which lays great store on civilised behaviour. The Opposition Party Islam Malaysia (PAS) has made impressive inroads into the state: UMNO is frustrated that many of its older members and leaders left it, especially after the 1998 sacking of the then deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, for PAS and the National Justice Party (KeADILan). The ground was slipping from under him. He did not act quickly to stop the rot.

His UMNO past is brought up for favourable mention: he was a "staunch" UMNO supporter, an assistant secretary of UMNO youth "who was expelled from UMNO on Oct 6, 1998 for taking part in anti-UMNO activities and later joined KeADILan". How could a staunch UMNO member be expelled for anti-UMNO activities? But let us not quibble over it. The report further states that he "has campaigned aggressively" to reinstate Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim as deputy prime minister and UMNO deputy president. To make this defection feasible, the NST adds that a KeADILan 'bigwig' would defect. Then it puts the knife in with a gratuitous comment: With general elections due soon, even KeADILan leaders believe the party is a spent force and would not hold its own at the polls. So, it infers but does not say so outright that Mr Saifuddin has seen the light and would join UMNO.

The Anwar Ibrahim affair, in one sense, is the most important political development since the first general election in that this man, humiliated and incarcerated for a political vendetta, caused the Malay political and cultural ground to move to the sidelines, forcing UMNO, the leader in BN, to have to fight for Malay support that it once got as their cultural and political leader. This is played down now: Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim is a nobody, he is a spent force, without him KeADILan, the political party that came out of what the BN thought was his political castration, is history. But he is not. His name is a dirty word in UMNO and BN, the fear is real of what would happen if he is indeed released. UMNO has to fight to retain its cultural and political leadership of the Malay community because of it, for it breached the fundamental relationship between leader and chieftain by humiliating him.

Weaving through the three states, and elsewhere, is the still unresolved political problem of Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. There is this fashionable view - one visiting academic told me this over dinner a few days ago - of a man who is as reprehensible as they come, a user and an acolyte of whoever is willing to meet his demands, which BN leaders often tell you. In strictly Western political science jargon, he is right. He was all that once; no one could rise as high in BN and UMNO as he did, if he did not wallow in the cesspit. But his strength to the Opposition and danger to BN is that he has re-engineered himself into some one wronged culturally, and turned BN politics upside down. In one sense, it is he and he alone that gave the Opposition the strength it has now. PAS would not have done as well but for the Anwar makeover. That remains, though not as strong as once. In the Malay heartland it is as firm as ever. KeADILan, his political voice, does occasionally go over the top to prove his continued importance, but it does that so ineptly that it sometimes deserves the opporobrium thrown at it. But the fact remain that Dato' Seri Anwar remains an underlying cultural problem that UMNO and BN has to overcome.

This would continue so long as the anti-corruption laws are defanged to make it all but impossible for the ACA to prosecute even if they had rock solid evidence to convict. If Pak Lah means what he says, the ACA must be strengthened to what it was in the beginning, when it was on the accused to prove he did not live beyond his means. Under this provision, it removed two UMNO mentris besar. The law was hastily amended to exclude that in future, and weakened periodically as the degree of corruption went up leaps and bounds. Today, it is a matter of strict proof, which is all but impossible for anyone who squeals is invariable in trouble too: under Malaysian law, those who give and accept bribes are equally liable. Over the years, the anti-corruption laws was a useful tool for the prime minister to keep his flock in line. He did not hesitate to use it when it did: that was why the then Selangor mentri besar, Dato' Harun Idris, was convicted in the 1970s, and the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, two decades on. Although in the latter case, evidence had to be manufactured, the court rules made a mockery of, and rules of fair play consigned to the winds.

There was one attempt to set this right. In 1997, the then Prime Minister, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, was on leave. His deputy, the now-jailed Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, as acting prime minister, got the cabinet to amend the anti-corruption law to give it more powers including the right to investigate all records of whoever it investigates for up to six years previous. Retirement, or resignation, as now did not protect one. When he presented it to the cabinet, it was fiercely resisted until he asked in what now can only be described as political naivete if it does not support the amendments because the ministers have much to hide. It was passed. Two who did were one Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and one Najib Tun Razak. It was presented to Parliament, where it got its first reading quickly enough. But Dr Mahathir returned, reversed it, and it now lies in limbo. Since Pak Lah's view on corruption mirrors Dato' Seri Anwar, he should use that law as the basis, tighten its provision, and earn the undying gratitude of all and sundry that he would beard the goat.

When it does that, it allows the hegemon to decide who should be in power. However one looks at it, that man is not Pak Lah but his deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak. He must know this by now. It was, remember, Washington's public support for the jailed deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, that sharpened the political debate in Malaysia. Tun Mahathir accused Dato' Seri Anwar of being Washington's stooge, amongst others, because the Pentagon gave him a right royal welcome, even inspecting a guard of honour, as it did not Dr Mahathir. If you extend this to the present situation, so did Dato' Seri Najib in Washington on a recent visit. Would Pak Lah get a similar welcome when he visits Washington? He might or he might not, depending on how loyal a poodle he could be. Dato' Seri Najib's credentials on this cannot be faulted: when he called on Mr Tenet, the great man had his legs on the table and slumped to his chair, telling him that the US is a greater power than the Roman Empire. He was insulted and, yet, he did nothing about it. Washington, I should think, knows the SCOPE factory cannot be a major link, but it is enough to unnerve Pak Lah. Why should he be rattled?

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