One is not surprised then at the party election results. The New Straits Times calls it "shock results". It is to Pak Lah and the newspaper, but not to those who have followed developments closely. What shocked him though is that those aligned to his predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, were amongst the victors. The three vice-presidents – Tan Sri Isa Samad, Dato' Seri Ali Rastam, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin – are not his men. In the supreme council, half the incumbents including three cabinet ministers, many aligned to Pak Lah, were defeated, those whom he wanted out are returned, to tie his hands in the new supreme council. Those who should have been in were defeated for no reason than they would not be involved in vote buying. The breast-beating aside, it was also clear that if a candidate was unprepared to bribe the delegates, he would not win. At one look, it appears none who did not bribe were returned.

The comment by the UMNO vice-president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, is typical of the democratic frame the Pak Lah camp wants to enforce: "Mounting a challenge against party president Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is tantamount to challenging the prime minister. Pak Lah is the prime minister. By going against Pak Lah, you go against the policies he set out as the prime minister. The prime minister's policies have gone down well with the people."

The man who should worry is Dato' Seri Najib. He is to Pak Lah what Tan Sri Musa Hitak was to Tun Mahathir. Both prime ministers have to keep looking over their shoulders at what their deputy prime ministers are doing. There is no love lost between them, and between their wives. Besides, Johore is out of the loop in this cabinet even if two new UMNO ministers are in this cabinet - Datin Azalina Othman (youth and sports) and Dato' Khaled Nordin (entrepreneur and co-operative development) - but in relatively unimportant ministries. The UMNO vice president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, is in agricultural and agro-based industries, but otherwise out of the power equation. If current thinking becomes real, he would challenge Dato' Seri Najib for the deputy presidency. The other vice-president, Tan Sri Mohamed Taib, is out of Parliament altogether, but he could be expected to stand for the UMNO vice-presidency in June. On the face of it, he has little or no chance. It would have been so if Tun Mahathir was UMNO president. But Pak Lah has yet to find his ground, he has to take matters slowly, making haste slowly, and move in little steps. His cabinet is one manifestation of that. It is for one reason and one only: to secure his position to make himself unbeatable in June. It is also important for Pak Lah that few warlords succeed in the UMNO elections.

THE PRIME MINISTER, DATO' SERI Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, has appointed a deputy prime minister (on 7 January 2004) and a professional to his recycled Cabinet. He wanted Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin but had to settle for Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak. The former prime minister, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, whose choice Dato' Seri Najib is, also wanted his economic adviser in office, Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcob, as second finance minister, and so he is. Two key men in two key positions - and both not Pak Lah's choice. If that is not a burden enough, Pak Lah reappoints the Mahathir cabinet, with more than half past their sell-by date. He makes a few cosmetic changes but otherwise left the team as it is. Tan Sri Nor Mohamed is the only new appointment.

UMNO is his other domain. It is not apparent but it is split several ways, but because they are mutually exclusive it poses no threat to the UMNO establishment. Which is why the new deputy prime can repeat the mantra that UMNO is not split, as he said yesterday (08 January 2004). He said it as often more melodramatically. He quashed rumours - he did not say how he could, but power is its own aphrodisiac and he is allowed to make nonsensical statements like these - of a split. How so? He is on good terms with his two vice presidental colleagues, the agriculture minister Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin and the former mentri besar of Selangor Tan Sri Mohamed Taib, and they believe he is the best choice. He was reacting to rumours in UMNO and on the Internet that Tan Sri Muhiyuddin, who would have been the deputy prime minister if Tun Mahathir had not read Pak Lak the riot act, is unhappy he is not chosen. Then he throws a red herring. He has known both for a long time and "we have no problems working together". Since both work with him as a team, their supporters, as good and loyal UMNO members, would close ranks behind Pak Lah.

He appoints the defence minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, as his deputy prime minister. He had wanted the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, with the political bonus of Johore backing him to the hilt. He did not want Dato' Seri Najib. The New Straits Times editor-in-chief, Tan Sri Abdullah Ahmad, was sacked for writing and talking about it. It is no secret Dr Mahathir wanted him. As Pak Lah did not. Dato' Seri Najib has pressed his claim as hard as he could. He knew if he did not make it now he could be in the cold for ever. Besides he made his plans to challenge Pak Lah for the UMNO presidency if was not the deputy prime minister. Pak Lah could call that bluff. He did not. Why?

Dato' Shahrir's support for the Southern Gateway does not make sense unless it is to force Pak Lah to appoint the Johorean and UMNO vice-president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, as deputy prime minister. Dr Mahathir wants Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak and Tan Sri Musa Tan Sri Muhiyuddin. Pak Lah takes his own counsel, and six weeks into office has appointed neither. He has enough problems on his plate to add another. For appointing either could force the other to the sidelines. This puts Pak Lah on the spot. He is all but certain to be challenged for the UMNO presidency. If he appoints either, the other could well desert to the challenger, thought to be Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. It is now possible he would appoint his deputy after the UMNO elections later this year. But that means he has four cabinet positions: Prime Minister, deputy prime minister, home minister and finance minister. He is weighed down by this, and other political and personal worries. It gets to be too much for him. But he cannot move without his own political standing compromised.

UMNO is unhappy with the changes. There is no avenue for it to make its views known. But where once they would keep quiet for a larger goal, today they have no qualms about what they fell or think. In the usual UMNO meeting points - the warongs, the tea stalls, the meeting places dotted around the country. And egged on by others who were once UMNO members and who do not care for it. Which is why UMNO leaders now have to exhort its members that all is above board. The UMNO youth leader, Dato' Hishamuddin Hussein, said it is in his usual combative way. It did not still the opposition. Now two UMNO vice president, no less, repeat the same message. Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, who is also domestic trade and consumer affairs minister, insists only a "small" number is unhappy at the new UMNO division leaders. Tan Sri Muhammad Taib said UMNO would tolerate the dissatisfied and the disgruntled, but if they support the Opposition as a result they would face disciplinary action. The UMNO information chief, Tan Sri Megat Junid Megat Ayob, is philosophical for no rhyme or reason: "If we change there are problems, if we don't make changes there are problems. So we take the middle road, we make several changes here and there wherever necessary."

Dato' Hussein excluded Mr Ghafar, wanted Tengku Razaleigh, who would not accept since he was not in the cabinet at the time, and Dr Mahathir made a solemn promise that when he succeed Dato' Hussein he would have Tengku Razaleigh as his deputy. But when the time came, he did not, said he would accept whomsoever the UMNO general assembly selected. Dato' (now Tan Sri) Musa Hitam, with Dr Mahathir's blessings, challenged Tengku Razaleigh, defeated him and became deputy prime minister instead. Pak Lah has indicated his preference for Dato' Seri Najib but defers appointing him. Most expect an open fight between Dato' Seri Najib and another vice-president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin for the UMNO deputy presidency in June. Then again, Pak Lah sends mixed signals. He has asked the Anti-Corruption Agency for the files of the three UMNO vice presidents.

Pak Lah faces his first test with his deputy prime minister. His natural choice is the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. This would give him the solid Johore support he needs to ward off any challenge at the UMNO general assembly in June 2004. Dr Mahathir appears to have twisted his arm to accept Dato' Seri Najib instead. Pak Lah could well not appoint either until after the general election, which could be before the UMNO general assembly. But he must first ensure he could restrict PAS to Kelantan and Trengganu, and win comfortably in the other states in the general election. That is not easy. A recent survey done in some depth has the National Front (BN) defeated in Perlis and Kedah state assembly elections, and in danger in Pahang and Selangor. The challenge is from PAS, but it is buttressed by anger over how Dato' Seri Anwar has been treated. If, on the other hand, he were to confound his critics, and does far better than anyone expected, he could return in triumph at the UMNO election.

This is not spelt out. One must discern it from the odd statements from its leaders, which often raise more questions than answers. How the BN declared Malaysia an Islamic state is one example of that. In recent years, especially after 1998 and the demonisation of the former deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, UMNO has deserted its cultural constituency for Islam and finds, to its horror, that it does not gain more converts to its Islamic cause while the cultural Malay has no truck with it. It is caught in its own spin. And its leaders must make more statements about what it does not understand to sideline PAS which wants an Islamic state in Malaysia. Issues crop up now and then, and both got at them hammer and tongs. The latest is the PAS decision to impose Islamic criminal law punishments in the two states it controls - Kelantan and Trengganu. One UMNO lawyer has asked the Federal Court to determine if the Trengganu Syariah Criminal enactment (Hudud and Qisas) was unconstitutional. As the debate intensifies, the UMNO vice-president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, who could, if all goes well, be Prime Minister in a few years, throws in an oar. "We do not propose hudud," he said on Friday (24 October 2003), only how PAS plans to implements it in Kelantan and Trengganu.

Why does the BN then want an election now? It allows time for the new Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, breathing space to name his deputy prime minister. The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, wants him to appoint the defence minister and UMNO vice-president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak but Pak Lah would rather the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister and anothe UMNO vice-president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. He is in a bind over this. And it portrays him as indecisive and unable or unwilling to decide especially under pressure.

As Tun Hussein, as he later became, so Dr Mahathir. He wants his successor, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to appoint the defence minister and UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, as his deputy prime minister. Pak Lah would rather he be another UMNO vice-president and the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. In any case, he would only after he is prime minister. Pak Lah is caught in an untenable cul-de-sac. If he appoints Dato' Seri Najib, he loses the support of Johore UMNO, without which his future in politics is shortlived. If he does not, he earns the enmity of Dr Mahathir. Besides those around him would rather he ignored Dato' Seri Najib. This makes him seem indecisive, deflecting any question about his deputy and is firm only after a nod from Dr Mahathir. Dato' Seri Najib, if he wants a future in politics, must be the next deputy prime minister. He is only 51 but he has been in UMNO politics and in Parliament and state assembly since 1976, after his father, Malaysia's second prime minister, died, and longer than even Pak Lah, in Parliament only since 1978.

To the incredulity of politicians and Malaysians, he breaks ranks to insist on election rallies in the next general election. This shook UMNO and National Front (BN) to the core. The deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, snarled when he was asked about it on his return from China. The UMNO vice president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, was unhappy. The UMNO Youth leader, Dato' Seri Hishamuddin Hussein, did not think it a good idea. The law minister, Dato' Seri Rais Yatim, insists Malaysia has a security threat which could aggravate with election rallies. The UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, said Malaysian electoral practices are accepted internationally without election rallies, and he did not see the need for it now. But should not the criteria be how Malaysians view the ban on election rallies?

The UMNO reaction reflected it. The law minister, Dato' Seri Rais Yatim, who on the other side of the fence welcomed it, is vehemently opposed now. The UMNO vice president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, cannot see the need for public rallies. The UMNO youth leader, in the false garb of the National Front (BN) youth leader, opposes it. (When did the BN youth wing meet to decide on it?) The one certainty to the proposal is that it frighted and shocked UMNO beyond belief. It took Dr Mahathir to come in and put matters right: The police will decide if public rallies would be allowed. Whatever the Election Commission might say. He takes the legalistic line that he would be blamed if he interfered in the EC's workings; it is independent, did you not know? But you will not he stayed clear of the scandal of the EC as a Puteri UMNO employment agency.

I had heard that Pak Lah had decided he would now choose Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, not his preferred choice, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, as his deputy prime minister. As a first step, Dato' Seri Najib would be made home minister. This is what Dr Mahathir wanted all along, but Pak Lah had baulked. If Dr Mahathir's plans are as I have heard, this would make sense. Dr Mahathir clearly could trust no one in the new Pak Lah lineup. But he can Dato' Seri Najib. And it would kill two birds with one stone. Dr Mahathir owes a cultural debt - 'hutang budi', as the Malay acknowledges it - to Tun Razak. This also gives Dato' Seri Najib a new lease of political life. It is also his last chance to make a stab to follow his father into the highest political office in the land.

Pak Lah did that so hamfistedly that his competence to lead Malaysia was in question. His candidate for deputy prime minister is, as always, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. For his political survive, it could not be an other. He has made that clear to his camp, to important UMNO leaders, but did not forefully make it known. Dr Mahathir wanted several key officers, beholden to him, appointed to Dato' Seri Abdullah's inner office. Pak Lah was not so keen, did not know how to refuse, and reacted by delaying it. In one instance, for five months until Dr Mahathir complained about it. He was appointed. These Mahathir strategists, with a proven record of mayhem and plots on his behalf, has, it now seems, seen the writing on the wall, and changed sides. No one admits to it, but suddenly Pak Lah is not a wimp any more. He acts with firmness, neutralising his party and political opponents, with a verve that surprised many.

Pak Lah understands that. Which is why he wants Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, not Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, as his deputy prime minister. Dr Mahathir would rather he be Dato' Seri Najib, but he cannot force Pak Lah to comply. A former leader is just that - a former leader. Tan Sri Muhiyuddin is from Johore, the best-entrenched UMNO-controlled state. He has a well-oiled political machine which can make deals with other important states. And sideline those they do not like. It is not without cause that the Pak Lah backers work furiously to ensure the political destruction of Dato' Seri Najib. If he is not Pak Lah's deputy, his political career is all but over. He is caught in a political maelstrom of his own. The Bukit Tinggi casino scandal devolves on him in ways he cannot defend. His Pekan parliamentary constituency is not as safe as he assumes. PAS has several well-liked candidates chosen for the area, and any one of them could easily force Dato' Seri Najib into premature retirement.

The pressure on Dato' Seri Abdullah is incalculable. For him, General Elections must come before the UMNO elections. If BN and UMNO does well in the first, his chances are much improved. But not by much. As matters stand, he would be challenged -- by the Hermit of Langgak Golf, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. If the calculations in his camp is believed, he would get the minimum 55 nominations to qualify him a candidate for the UMNO presidency. If he stands, the result is one Dato' Seri Abdullah would not like. There is one other squiggle: Dr Mahathir wants Dato' Seri Abdullah to appoint the UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, as his deputy prime minister. Neither wants it. Dato' Seri Abdullah would rather have Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, from Johore. In any case, he cannot afford to. It is important for him to establish his independence from Dr Mahathir. Dato' Seri Najib has his own plans. He believes he is young enough to wait awhile, but he is prepared, in the interim, to be deputy prime minister to the Hermit.

So, he does whatever needs to be done to ensure he has at least a pipsqueak advantage over his other challengers. He is already caught in limbo with Dr Mahathir's insistence that the defence minister and UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, be his deputy prime minister. He has the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister and UMNO vice president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, in mind. His effective mentor, Tan Sri Musa Hitam, does not, and prefers, like Dr Mahathir, Dato' Seri Najib. That both Dr Mahathir and Tan Sri Musa both want him as Dato' Seri Abdullah's deputy has to do with the Malay concept of 'hutang budi', literally, a cultural debt, as important in Malay feudal life as honour in Sicilian life. It was Dato' Seri Najib's father, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, who protected Dr Mahathir and Tan Sri Musa from the then prime minister, Tengku Abdul Rahman, after he sacked Dr Mahathir from UMNO and Tan Sri Musa as executive secretary of UMNO after the 1969 racial riots. They want to repay this hutang budi by ensuring Dato' Seri Najib is deputy prime minister.

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