It is this dilemma Pak Lah faces. It is possible, indeed probable, he did not know of the electoral hijacking that so divides Malaysia now. More than Pak Lah, those who depend on him and UMNO for continued protection, contracts and jobs cannot envision an opposition in power. The opposition flexes its muscles. We should do something about it. And did. This world view in Pakistan led Mr Bhutto to the gallows. The ruling party must remain in power for all time, and it can do what it likes to ensure it. The voter does not count. If he would not vote for the government, or if a well-organised opposition could trip the governing party, he and it must be cut down to size. Malaysians do not react as the Pakistanis do, but when the BN blames the ground for losses in Kelantan, it adds fuel to the fire.

The man who should worry is Dato' Seri Najib. He is to Pak Lah what Tan Sri Musa Hitak was to Tun Mahathir. Both prime ministers have to keep looking over their shoulders at what their deputy prime ministers are doing. There is no love lost between them, and between their wives. Besides, Johore is out of the loop in this cabinet even if two new UMNO ministers are in this cabinet - Datin Azalina Othman (youth and sports) and Dato' Khaled Nordin (entrepreneur and co-operative development) - but in relatively unimportant ministries. The UMNO vice president, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin, is in agricultural and agro-based industries, but otherwise out of the power equation. If current thinking becomes real, he would challenge Dato' Seri Najib for the deputy presidency. The other vice-president, Tan Sri Mohamed Taib, is out of Parliament altogether, but he could be expected to stand for the UMNO vice-presidency in June. On the face of it, he has little or no chance. It would have been so if Tun Mahathir was UMNO president. But Pak Lah has yet to find his ground, he has to take matters slowly, making haste slowly, and move in little steps. His cabinet is one manifestation of that. It is for one reason and one only: to secure his position to make himself unbeatable in June. It is also important for Pak Lah that few warlords succeed in the UMNO elections.

There is a fascination with polls in Malaysia. Partly it comes from the belief that we are now headed for the first world, the first world has regular opinion polls, and so we should have them too. When the PAS newspaper, Harakah, had its internet poll, not with any scientific basis but more to needle the UMNO leaders, the reaction in UMNO is one of shell shock. The questions are explosive, for instance, if Pak Lah is more popular than Tun Mahathir Mohamed before he stepped down as prime minister. But there is no basis to have one that is scientifically acceptable. Choosing a sample is difficult. People do not like to talk of their likes and dislikes to strangers, for fear they come from the government to find out if they are hiding something.

THE MALAYSIAN PRIME MINISTER, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, takes the only view he can, that the polls are over, it does not matter if it is flawed or not, all that mess the Election Commission caused has nothing to do with him. The important thing is his overwhelming mandate, and his first task is to appoint the cabinet and mentris besar. Possession, after all, is nine-tenths the law. He is in control. Now who would dare overturn that? The Election Commission? With Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahmand as chairman and Dato' Wan Ahmad Wan Omar as its secretary? But however you look at it, this electoral mess has reduced Pak Lah in stature. The mainstream euphoria of his victory comes with caveats that could sink him if this EC mess gets out of hand. What Pak Lah and the EC glosses over is that with this election, as I noted in a commentary two days ago, the rubicon is crossed. Brewer's Dictionary of Phrase and Fabe records: The Rubicon was a small river that separated ancient Italy from Cisalpine Gaul, the province alloted to Julius Caesar. When he crossed this stream in 49 BC, he passed beyond the limits of his province, and he became an invader, thus precipitating war with Pompey and the Senate.

If he had this result five years earlier, his victory would have been the sweeter. Not this year. The Election Commission, in its eagerness to see the BN in power, went out of its way to break the law and its electoral operating rules, amongst others, to extend the voting hours in Selangor by two hours when it seemed certain the BN and the PAS-led opposition were neck-to-neck. It encouraged phantom voters all over the country but especially in the four Malay states - Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Trengganu - where PAS was at its strongest - whilst overseeing a flawed voting system. In many individual polling stations, more votes were cast than there were voters. There was, at the end of the day, a deliberate plan for what happened. It was centrally administered, so the local BN, mostly UMNO, leaders did no know of it. They were often as surprised at the result as PAS and KeADILan. It was clear to Pak Lah that without it, he would have been sidelined without further ado. His legitimacy, as prime minister and UMNO president depended on it. So did past BN and UMNO leaders. This kind of nonsense took place even then, but so seamlessly that few could complain or knew about it. In the 1999 campaign, one prominent Malaysian arrived in Sabah with two large dried fish, a gift for the UMNO leader, which escaped customs or other inspection because he went through the VIP channel: it was split open later to reveal the thousands of false identity cards for use in that general election.

THE NATIONAL FRONT WON an unexpected landslide victory in yesterday's (21 March 2004), the best since it as the Alliance won 51 of 52 constituencies for the Federal Legislative Assembly in 1955. It is a result that defies statistical probability and logic. It swept the Malay states, routed PAS in Trengganu, a cliff hanger in Kelantan, where the votes are still being recounted, decimated the National Justice Party, KeADILan, and made its president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, unbeatable in his own right. The only KeADILan MP is its president, Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. PAS saw its hopes dashed so thoroughly that it would be awhile before it recovers. The only opposition of any note comes from the Democratic Action Party (DAP). But this BN victory also calls into question the Election Commission's impartiality and ability to conduct elections. It stepped in in Selangor when as polls were about to close it was clear the BN and the Opposition were running neck to neck. Without warning, it extended the voting by two hours, breaking its own rules and without consulting the candidates. It was during this time that BN bussed in a surge of voters that turned the tide. Pak Lah's brilliant mandate comes with it deep-seated questions of fairness of the election process.

Amidst this, if Pak Lah gets his sweeping two-thirds majority, his tenure in office is flawed. He must act quickly to bring sanity back to the electoral system. Nothing short of a royal commission would do. It must look into the debacle, it must allow the Leader of the Opposition to nominate two or three members of the EC, change drastically how it conducts itself. If the EC's dereliction of duty is serious, he must call for fresh elections, and allow election monitors from interested groups, and have a group of well-known worthies to whom representations can be made by the voter and candidate of whatever irks him. The returning officers must be hauled up for not attending to their assigned task. This cannot be pushed under the carpet. We only know of the mishaps in areas where there is interest. It is fair to assume that the mistakes in the Klang Valley could well occur in other constituencies. The mind of the civil servant is not to rock the boat. The civil servants are the returning officers in the election. It did all it could not to rock the boat. It is surprising that the BN leaders had not claimed victory, and told Malaysians they do the country proud for giving them another chance to serve. The BN did not realise that the ground had shifted from it. Pak Lah's nice-guy image and his promise of better things to come is not enough. The voter now holds him to account. He must think of recouping his reputation. Even if he has to call for fresh general elections under a more honest EC. Otherwise he is in more trouble than he thinks he is in.

Pak Lah's BN went on a media blitz to hide its unpreparedness. In many areas of the country, there was none. Since the BN campaign blitz is oiled by large dollops of money, the lack of it ground it to a halt in many key constituencies up and down the country. The arrogant selection of candidates caused a virtual civil war in every BN component party, and this flowed over into the campaign itself. Important party officials dropped as candidates just moved away to other states to work for their return into UMNO's inner circle in the June party elections. The official and mainstream media would not report on this, but its sycophantic coverage of the BN was overdone, and helped move voters to the Opposition. The BN, staring defeat in its face, went on the offensive: it attacked PAS leaders, notably the Kelantan and Trengganu mentris besar, Dato' Seri Nik Aziz Nik Mat and Dato' Seri Abdul Hadi Awang. That backfired. The electoral frustrations within BN forced the candidates to campaign on the component party symbols. In some areas, like in Kampung Bharu, the UMNO flags were more in evidence than the BN.

The EC has made it its business to make this election as difficult as possible for the Opposition. After 1969, when the constitutional was grossly amended to change the direction of a multiracial Malaysia into a Malay-dominant Malaysia, the EC became UMNO's, not BN's, electoral arm to ensure it. If political parties are not allowed to help out with posters and men for its partners, then this should be for all political parties. The BN is one party, the EC should not recognise its component parties, since none of them stand for election except as BN candidates, their posters and logos should not be around. UMNO's Adnan Mansor contests not on an UMNO but on a BN ticket. If they must be around, in the EC's considered view, then so should all political parties. When the EC officer in Putrajaya telephoned Mr Abdul Rahman, he did not speak for the EC but for UMNO. Besides, the EC should have announced it boldly and publicly that it has changed the rules mid-stream. The law is constricted that one cannot challenge the EC decisions except with severe restrictions, yet the EC insists it alone does not make mistakes. What it does is only that. Those who died a decade and more ago are allowed to vote. Pak Lah sends a letter to one voter who died in 1988, but with the new identity card number that was not announced until a decade after he died, asking him to vote for BN. I am listed in my constituency twice - under my old and my new identity card. Its accuracy is severely tested.

He could well be returned in this constituency of 5,000 mostly civil servant voters and their families. So he would, the BN tough guys threaten the residents with what the Election Commission insists is not true: the vote is not secret, and "we would know how you voted". In this, I disbelieve the EC. The vote is not secret. It can find out how one voted quiet easily with the help of super computers. Why it is not widely used to find out is the inefficiency of the bureaucracy and of the EC. In Singapore, for instance, with the efficient bureaucracy and its creative use of computers, it could in a flash find out who voted for whom. In Malaysia, the bureaucracy is efficient only because we are told it is. If it is efficient, how is it that the embarrassing details of whom one business partner calls 'Tengku Palsu' - fake prince - are so quickly in the public domain. It is a fair bet that no one can find out how these documents leaked. His opponent is from the National Justice Party, KeADILan, an accountant named Abdul Rahman Othman, and the party reports that he is followed by BN toughs as he goes about his campaign. The BN now accepts that this presumed safe seat is no longer. Could the BN candidate, if he is returned, return to the Cabinet without denting Pak Lah's image? More important, can Tengku Adnan remain in the cabinet after this?

In Kuala Lumpur, the infighting within and between the BN parties is taken to new heights. In Titiwangsa, the sitting member is dropped, and he could not get back in. So he shut down the UMNO campaign headquarters to deny the candidate, the son of a former cabinet minister of long standing. In neighbouring Wangsa Maju, UMNO is miffed at the MCA candidate that it shut down its campaign headquarters. In retaliation, MCA shut down its election office in Titiwangsa. Similar incidents happen all over the country, but in areas in Kelantan, Trengganu and other areas in the Malay heartland, it could upset the BN's calculations. This election is in part to ehance Pak Lah's image, but that image is getting frayed. In Johore he had to eat humble pie, forced to change his line-up when the sultan objected to his candidate for mentri besar.

WHEN THE PRIME MINISTER, DATO' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, filed his nomination papers in his Kepala Batas parliamentary constituency, his PAS opponent, Mr Abdul Khalid Rasid, raised a preliminary objection: Pak Lah did not file his election statement of accounts, as the law requires, after the 1999 general election. Pak Lah insisted he had, but when challenged, could not produce it. The returning officer, who would gladly had disqualified the candidate if the situation was reversed, decided discretion was the better of valour. His future was at stake. He passed the buck. He said at first only the Election Commission could, then decided he would, and rejected the objection. How could the Prime Minister be disqualified? He would not make such a stupid mistake, would he? The DAP leader, Mr Lim Kit Siang, could, which is why he was charged for a similar election offence years ago. But the Prime Minister? Certainly not! In 1999, the then Prime Minister, the now Tun Mahathir Mohamed, found at the last minute that his nomination papers were wrongly entered and could have been disqualified. But it was found out in time. He sacked a political secretary for this gaffe.

THE PRIME MINISTER, DATO' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is caught up in the official myth-making of a National Front (BN) and UMNO so well-organised that it can rout all comers in an election. That it has more than its share of problems is ignored, and not allowed to surface. Threats and sinecures do help mollify the protesters, but not when election come. The old anger reasserts, and with a new leader at the helm, this is pushed to the limit. Pak Lah wants a united team, a better result than in 1999, a stronger showing in the Malay heartland, which it could not in the last general election. His predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, kept a tight ship, crushed all dissent with brutal force, but this only postponed the inevitable. Pak Lah is of a different mould, more conciliatory, and would rather, if he can, discuss the problem. But he succeeded Tun Mahathir only four months ago, giving him little or no chance to hold his ground.

This is why the BN is both strong and weak. When the BN president is in control, he will crack all dissent, and choses the candidates. That puts the party leaders also on the line. But when he is weak, as now, the war lord party leaders defy the BN president to sideline their political enemies. The official spin is that the BN president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, decides on the candidates. Not this time. The individual party leaders announced his candidate list as Pak Lah struggles to complete his. It should have been ready early this week, and announced today (11 March 2004), two days before nomination day. But last night, the list is not final. The MIC president, Dato' Seri S. Samy Vellu, thumped his nose at Pak Lah to announce his list. He dropped his deputy, Dato' S. Subramaniam, making it clear that for all the support he had given him, the man is disloyal and ungrateful. Typical of BN party leaders, he would not admit it to reporters: no one is dropped, he insisted, but a change is made to the list. Dato' Subra is not told of his fate, and learns of it on television.

But all told, the EC is nervous. For all its vaunted independence, it must ensure a solid BN victory. If it does not, the EC chairman would be forced out in time. Failure to break the law so those who must win does not is a serious crime in this blessed democracy of ours. So the BN works closely with the EC so its victory is in no doubt. But it is not so straightword. The BN bigwigs are worried. The de facto law minister, Dato' Seri Rais Yatim, had to put his oar in: he warned that if the Opposition not to raise sensitive issues, it would have to pay the price. The presumption here is the BN could with impunity. Why do I notice an unbelievable nervousness in the BN and EC? It is the Opposition which dictates debate in this election. The issue is the islamic state, the first time it is since the former prime minister, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, declared Malaysia to be an Islamic state, without debate or parliamentary approval. PAS wants it debate. The BN, especially its dominant UMNO, cannot. When PAS challenged the BN chief and Malaysian prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, about his Islamic credentials, UMNO froze in fright, deeming it an unfair personal question. it is not. In an Islamic state, how its leader behaves is subject to public scrutiny and debate. But the BN has decided it would not address it head on. So Pak Lah would not be drawn into it. But that only puts him on the defensive.

THE MIC PRESIDENT, DATO' Seri S. Samy Vellu, does not know if his deputy, Dato' S. Subramaniam, is a candidate in this month's general election. "It is the prerogative of the party president and prime minister," he thundered. "I am not going to make any statement on this." When MIC leaders beg and cry before him for a "chance to serve the people", and Dato' Seri Samy only wants sycophantic leaders, is Dato' Samy denied his seat because he did not beg, cry and kowtow low enough? Johore MIC leaders talk of a new MIC MP. Tamil papers are sure he is out. His supporters are distraught and convinced he is out. There is no love lost between the two men. Dato' Seri Samy would rather he disappear into thin air. He saw the prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, yesterday, but "it was on other matters". He was dropped once, in 1990, after he challenged Dato' Seri Samy for the MIC presidency, brought into the government as a senator as deputy agriculture minister. He was MP for Segamat after 1995. He is close to Pak Lah, whose relationship with the MIC president is at best tetchy.

For Pak Lah's most intractible task is to draw up the list of candidates. The BN fiction is that he and he alone decides. It is convenient. The BN political party presidents evade would rather let the BN president decide than face wrathful members. Over the years, this firmed his hand so he now can drop non-UMNO candidates at will. Power is secured in his hands so thoroughly, and uses it to the full that there is no nonsense that he is primus inter pares, first amongst equals. There is more. The BN parties submit their lists of candidates for his approval. But he interferes to correct blatant inconsistencies and ommissions. The saga of the People's Progressive Party president, Dato' M. Kayveas' search for a parliamentary seat is typical. He was not given it, but Pak Lah wants him to have it. The question is where. He had worked hard for the new parliamentary constituency of Cameron Highlands. But other parties wanted it too: first, the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, then the Malaysian Indian Congress. He was then offered the overwhelmingly Malay constituency of Bukit Gantang, in Perak. But not after some untypical BN arm-twisting. But it is still unclear where, or if, he would. Now the MIC deputy president, Dato' Seri S. Subramaniam, so say his crest-fallen supporters, is denied his parliamentary constituency. He would probably get it. Pak Lah is not known to desert any closely aligned to him.

The states PAS controls - Kelantan and Trengganu - the BN has promised to defeat. It is easier said than done. Kelantan is firmly in PAS hands. So should Trengganu. The BN is sure PAS would be defeated. But that does look unlikely. The Opposition does not control its advance. It is Pak Lah who does. He needs a solid victory to strengthen his hold on UMNO before the party elections later this year. But he may not pull it off. For UMNO and BN has ignored Trengganu after it got only five of the 32 state assembly seats. And caused a political furore when it refused to hand over to the PAS-run Trengganu the Petronas royalties due to the state. That is now before the courts. But what makes it difficult for BN is that it hands the petroleum royalties, which it labels 'wang ehsan', to its state leader to distribute.

He had to hold it so his honeymoon in office would excuse his governmental lapses. But he was caught with two major political mishaps: his war on corruption went awry; and his son controls a purpose-built company which produced centrifuge parts for nuclear weapons. It does not matter what the official spin is, and if the Malaysian police had cleared his son of any wrongdoing; but the United States wants blood. The unfortunate fact of this crisis is that Pak Lah is on the defensive, even with the United States, and this could redound on our ties with Washington. The fact is that Malaysia is the nut in a nutcracker that Washington wields.

The issue in this election is, more than anything, Pak Lah. He projects an image of a religious scholar, the son and grandson of respected ulamas. Few have thought of him as one in his rise to the top, although no one denies he is both pious and religious. His spin doctors have made him out to what he is not, and it is this that PAS is chipping away. When its president, Dato' Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, questioned and challenged it, the mainstream press said it was a personal attack on the Prime Minister. Politics must be clean, the Opposition should not cast aspersions of the leaders, it must learn to be in politics and abide by the strict tents of the political Queensbury rules. Of course, when the Prime Minister decides to go a personal vendatta and attack a man he wants destroyed, no holds are barred, as when Pak Lah's predecessor was on prime time television in 1998 with a vicious personal attack on his deputy prime minister, accusing him of sodomy, helpfully explain to those who did not know how one masturbates.

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