In other words, the opposition candidate goes in not to win but to bleed the BN. But neither Parti Keadilan Negara (Keadilan) nor the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the two parties involved, would accept this. The residual distrust and anger complicated the opposition campaign. So, the Opposition is fractured and frayed. The DAP left the opposition Barisan Alternatif (BA) because it could not agree with PAS's theocratic policies. The bad blood between the DAP and Keadilan is long standing: DAP objected when its former members joined Keadilan; and now invites the former Keadilan deputy president, Dr Chandra Muzaffar, to join.

The Malay soul, in other words, is there now for whichever party can persuade it into its fold. Three parties fight for that: UMNO, PAS and Parti Keadilan Negara. Complicating it is that this Malay soul is forced into an Islamic mould, with UMNO and PAS each insisting that its version of Islam is what the Malay should follow. Keadilan, on the the other hand, provides the alternative, traditional Malay view of his soul in cultural terms in which Islam is its bedrock.

The government cannot but show its good faith now by being as harsh on its cronies and Tun Daim, whom UMNO rank and file blame for much of Malaysia's ills, as those it want destroyed. Indeed, one perceptive UMNO watcher said UMNO must now produce, at the very least, a list of, say, 20 cronies, make them justify their excesses, and send at least half to jail. Tun Daim must be in that list. That would at least show UMNO's desire to want to settle the gulf between it and the Malay community. This must be augmented by resolving the Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim affair. It is more enough for UMNO to demand the Malays to back it. In fact, he goes further: Dato' Seri Anwar must be brought back as deputy prime minister, in other words status quo ante his dismissal. If he is released, UMNO is at risk if he does not rejoin UMNO and goes to another party, Parti Keadilan Negara or PAS. UMNO leaders do not know if they come or go. The government runs on autopilot, and this makes it all the more difficult for the present leadership to address the issues of the day.

The National Front (BN) is returned with a larger majority in the Indera Kayangan byelection. The stakes were too high for UMNO and MCA for it not to be otherwise. The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, nor the MCA president, Dato' Seri Ling Liong Sik, would be under greater pressure that they already are otherwise. So, it had to win. It did, with a larger majority. The MCA's Mrs Oui Ah Lan is returned with 900 more votes than in 1999. The BN is quick to claim the Parti Keadilan Negara (Keadilan) is discredited. How it does not explain, since if it had caused an upset, it would have been the BN that would have. All the byelection proved is that BN cannot lose in any byelection and ensure it would not. The Lunas byelection loss in Kedah sticks in its gullet.

The candidates are Chinese, but MCA is no where to be seen, if Malaysian press and media news on the hustings in Indera Kayangan is any guide. The deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is certain the MCA candidate would be returned with a majority, not a higher majority he was sure of until now. With due respect, how could one win an election with a minority in a straight fight as hard fought as this? (I know of only one -- in Kuala Kubu Bahru state assembly seat in the 1969 general elections, when MCA dumped its the sitting member: his supporters spoilt their ballot papers, all 5,009 of them, which was more than the winner's; but surely Dato' Seri Abdullah did not have this in mind) The MCA president, Dato' Seri Ling Liong Sik, has little to say but pour scorn on Parti Keadilan Nasional (Keadilan) though not the candidate, Mr Khoo Yang Chong, a popular Chinese community leader.

The MCA split is beyond repair. The president, Dato' Seri Ling Liong Sik, and his deputy, Dato' Seri Lim Ah Lek, lead the two factions so at odds that each looks to cut the other's wings at best it can. So in Indera Kayangan -- even if both agreed MCA should aim to be returned in Indera Kayangan and should set aside their differences for the duration. Forlonly, it turns out. All that happened is that it went underground. The MCA candidate is Mrs Oui Ah Lan, linked to Dr Ling and works in Dato' Seri Shahidan's office as a Chinese adviser. Dr Ling chose her and without consulting Dato' Seri Lim. In the straight fight, the opposition is from the Parti Keadilan Negara (National Justice Party or Keadilan), but its candidate, Mr Khoo Yang Chong, is ex-MCA and from the Lim faction. So, Indera Kayangan is an MCA turf battle. Worse, UMNO Perlis does not support her for her links to Dato' Seri Shahidan.

It is that which makes Dato' Seri Abdullah nervous and Dato' Seri Shahidan angry and jumpy. In the three years since Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim was sacked, detained, criminally assaulted by the Inspector-General of Police, convicted and jailed, every Muslim Ramadan fast is in the wake of an unfortunate and regrettable death amongst the conspirators and former cronies. On the first anniversary, the wife of Mr Azizan Abu Bakar, who accused the former deputy prime minister of sodomising him, died in a road accident. On the second, the wife of the deputy minister of education, Dato' Aziz Shamsuddin, died in a freak road accident. On the third, the son of Dato' Seri Shahidan Kassim, for whom Dato' Seri Anwar bent backwards to lavish him with contracts and projects, died. The Anwar camp has not forgiven him for what they term his treachery. What was said in the speech is not new: it is spread by word-of-mouth in meetings and gatherings of Parti Keadilan Negara, the political party whose Godfather is Dato' Seri Anwar.

The UMNO is so out of touch with its constituency but the opposition is so hopelessly divided that that would not matter. The DAP, for instance, threatens to sack those who campaign. In other words, it needs a byelection to show how autocratic and irrelevant political parties have become. And worse, how easily the National Front sets the agenda for all political parties to follow, like sheep. The Parti Keadilan Negara will field a candidate for the byelection caused when the sitting member, from the MCA, died of cancer. The opposition does not have a policy and runs headless into battle. If it had, it would mount a tough campaign but just enough for the BN to win: with an election due in a year, it is pyrrhic opposition victory. A BN win would lull it into further complacency. But strategy, sometimes even tactics, is not an opposition speciality.

That saga has dragged on for three years, with each public confrontation between the two men diminishing UMNO and its president. The cussedness and the official hatred towards him and his illness which confines him to a wheelchair increased with each appearance in court. The 1999 general elections, the first since Dato' Seri Anwar's jailing, showed its effect: the UMNO-led National Front's massive victory belied a sharp erosion of Malay support towards Parti Islam Malaysia (PAS) and the party formed to fight for his release, Parti Keadilan Malaysia or National Justice Party.

Before September 11, the US had in place a policy to introduce Malaysian opposition leaders to US audiences and policy makers. The PAS president, Dato' Fadhil Noor, and the Trengganu mentri besar, Dato' Haji Hadi Awang, had already visited the United States under this programme. No more. Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim is sidelined after the Parti Keadilan Negara's deputy president, Dr Chandra Muzaffar, spoke and wrote critically of the United States after September 11. Dato' Seri Anwar's essay in Time magazine recently was as much to distance himself from Dr Chandra as much as to say he is an Islamic moderate. But he is sidelined by Washington as surely as Dr Mahathir before September 11.

The other federal opposition parties, especially Parti Keadilan Negara (Keadilan) and Parti Islam Malaysia (PAS), join the Democratic Action Party (DAP) to challenge the might of BN in Sarawak.

UMNO is sure the Likas byelection is the National Front's. The SAPP is certain victory is its president and former chief minister, Dato' Yong Teck Lee's. The Sabah chief minister, Dato' Chong Kah Kiat, has no qualms to insist that the man he would rather not have supported but has to in view of his exalted position would win hands down. All of them have a niggling problem: they are worried sick of the entry of Parti Keadilan Negara in the electoral fray. This is the sense of the news reports in the Malaysian press.

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