But there is a fly in the National Front ointment. The younger voters, particularly the Malays, do not believe in this widely held belief that UMNO, its lead party, is there to ensure that they will be looked after. UMNO has turned into a religious party, which the National Front endorsed. It fights a political battle to have its version of Islam – called Islam Hadhari under the Pak Lah administration – against the PAS version, which is the Islam ordained in the Quran. This is understood by the UMNO leadership, for when UMNO meets PAS head on – in Kelantan, Trengganu, Kedah and Perlis – there is no mention of Islam Hadharii and only that PAS misuses the Quiran. Malaysias only hear of PAS members joining UMNO but many UMNO members, especially in recent years, have joined PAS. That is not reported, for that in National Front eyes, is not important, and the newspapers, in truth its propaganda organs, stay away from such newsta.

The National Front, led by UMNO, has taken Islam as its political platform, mainly to beat PAS at its own game. It has dispensed with multiracialism in this move. It is its version of Islam that matters. The MCA, MIC, its allies in Sarawak and Sabah have accepted it, usually because their leaders want to stay in power. But it kept quiet about Islam Hadhari when it met PAS in byelections in Kelantan last year. It is schizophrenic about Islam, and that would be disastrous in a country which has accepted UMNO as its political party. Since most Malay have more than 90 per in Malaysia are Kelantan, Trengganu, Kedah and Perlis, this is a disastrous development. The only two political parties here are UMNO and PAS; the others don't couint because they are united in hate. Any attempt by them to win elections to form state governments is unsuccessful. What happened to the DAP in Penang is not the National Front's effectiveness but in the voter's feeling that it should be in the opposition.

If the opposition ever forms the government, it would be headed by PAS. It has members who love Islam and this is reflected in its continued electoral strengths. But even it won power in Kelantan and Trengannu, in 1990 and 1999, because it was the only party around to benefit from UMNO's mistakes or misjudgements. Kelantan, Trengganu, Kedah, Perlis is where it expects to win. Its narrow political views make it difficult for it to forge alliances, and therefore it can only remain in the opposition in parliamentant, though they may control even four states. The other opposition parties will not join it, except perhaps PKR, because of this narrow Islamic viewpoint. But this will not prevent PAS being a political party. Its members are mutually hostile to UMNO, but has readjusted its policieis to take UMNO members in.

Women in the new UMNO are treated badly although they have played a valiant role in the early days. Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, in prison, thought up a wing of educated women different from the women's wing. But the opposition did not agree with him, dilly dallied over it for months. UMNO ran with it, and created a revolution in politics. All political parties, in the government and in the opposition, are toying with the idea of a special young educated women's wing. In UMNO, they proved to be efficient campaigners. In the Indera Kayangan byelection in Perlis, Puteri UMNO made its mark. Since then, it has been active in all elections. UMNO has found the most important political weapon ever but spoiled it when it founded Putera UMNO which became a vehicle for the UMNO Youth deputy president and Pak Lah's son-in-law, Mr Khairy Jamaluddin, to unseat the UMNO Youth leader, Dato' Hishamuddin Hussein.

The Thai Malays, which once included Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan and Trenggau, had been under Thai suzerainty since before the 17th century. In 1905, the British negotiated a treaty with Thailand to hand over these four states into Malaya, as it then was. But the Thai Malays, principally from the southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Songkla and Narathiwat fought to be separate from the Thai nation, as East Timor (now Timor Leste) wanted to from Djakarta. But Southern Thailand had been part of the Thai nation for more than 300 years. Now the attitudes have hardeded in Bangkok. The Moslems in Thailand's north disagree with their southern Thai counterparts. The Thais I spoke to seem to think that the rise of the Islamic world has caused it to revolt. The positions have hardenedd, with the average Thai refusing to accept even self-rule for the Thai Malays. They have to be a minority of the Thai Nation, or they would be forcibly made to. The other alternative is war which the Thai Malays cannot win.

PAS is strongest in a largely Malay constituency, and its strength is in the overwhelmingly Malay dominates states of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Trengganu. There is still in PAS the idealism that once was the hallmark of UMNO. This is a powerful political message that UMNO cannot counter with finesse, certainly in the Malay states. If UMNO wanted to break that, it had to return to what it once was, or challenge PAS on its ground. Its leaders would have to humiliate themselves for the first, and so decided on the second.

PAS has not wavered in wanting to turn Malaysia into an Islamic state in which the syaria rules. Its strength was in the Malay majority states of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Trengganu. But it crept into the Malaysian heartland as UMNO lost its hold on the Malay cultural and feudal ground. To a degree that UMNO must be avowedly Islamic to fight for a Malay ground that was unquestionably its.

The results surprised everyone, including BN and UMNO leaders. The deputy prime minister, Najib Razak, was uncertain of his chances in Pekan, and he had asked his aides a day before polling to persuade the PAS candidate, a retired brigadier-general, to step down. Pak Lah had accepted the inevitable that Kelantan and Trengganu would remain under PAS control, and his best hope was to retain Perlis and Kedah, and prevent an electoral haemmorhage in the other states. At the same time, it is impossible to believe neither had at least a whisp of these plans. They should have stepped in when the EC played fast and loose with the electoral register. They should have stepped in when it played fast and loose with the election rules, and unilaterally extended the voting hours in Selangor. The official reason for it is unconvincing. The hours of voting was gazetted as between 0800 and 1700. That could only be changed only with the consent of the candidates. The EC does not have the right to do that unilaterally.

On the face of it, there is no inspired appointment in this cabinet. He wants, like Tun Mahathir, a cabinet of loyalists, would brook no opposition, within the feudal framework he becomes accustomed to. He has opened himself to attack in the states where he appointed several mentris besar at odds with the palace - Dato' Seri Shahidan Kassim in Perlis, Dato' Seri Adnan Yaakob in Pahang, Dato' Seri Mohamed Ali Rastam in Malacca, amongst others - and this could cause needless problems later on. But all told, in the circumstances, he has done well. He needs time to get used to the new circumstances, which while it entrenches the BN, and UMNO, hold on politics, he must fashion a policy to explain why, for the first time since the first elections in 1955, the Malays are for the first time in a minority in the new parliament. In this single-minded desire to frustrate the Islamist and multiracial Malay opposition with the help of the Chinese, the UMNO president allowed Malay representation in parliament to be less than 50 per cent. It made the mistake in Sabah and Sarawak when it assumed that anyone with a name that looked Malay - the chief minister of Sabah, Dato' Seri Musa Aman, the chief minister of Sarawak, Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, or the former Sabah chief minister, Dato' Seri Salleh Said Keruak, call themselves bumiputras, not Malay, indeed are not Malay but of Indian and Melanau blood. With PAS all but decimated in parliament, the majority of Malays in parliament would come from UMNO, and that is less than one hundred in a house of 219. Pak Lah is in more pressure than he realises. Which is why the coalition partners who forced him to chose could well pay dearly for their impudence.

If he had this result five years earlier, his victory would have been the sweeter. Not this year. The Election Commission, in its eagerness to see the BN in power, went out of its way to break the law and its electoral operating rules, amongst others, to extend the voting hours in Selangor by two hours when it seemed certain the BN and the PAS-led opposition were neck-to-neck. It encouraged phantom voters all over the country but especially in the four Malay states - Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Trengganu - where PAS was at its strongest - whilst overseeing a flawed voting system. In many individual polling stations, more votes were cast than there were voters. There was, at the end of the day, a deliberate plan for what happened. It was centrally administered, so the local BN, mostly UMNO, leaders did no know of it. They were often as surprised at the result as PAS and KeADILan. It was clear to Pak Lah that without it, he would have been sidelined without further ado. His legitimacy, as prime minister and UMNO president depended on it. So did past BN and UMNO leaders. This kind of nonsense took place even then, but so seamlessly that few could complain or knew about it. In the 1999 campaign, one prominent Malaysian arrived in Sabah with two large dried fish, a gift for the UMNO leader, which escaped customs or other inspection because he went through the VIP channel: it was split open later to reveal the thousands of false identity cards for use in that general election.

The BN today realised the mess it is in and quickly moved to distance itself from the EC's dereliction of duty. The BN deputy president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, blames the EC for the mess-up in the ballot paper in the Sungei Lembing state seat in Pahang where the PAS candidate is depicted as from KeADILan. The Gerakan president, Dato' Seri Lim Kheng Yaik, is furious at the missing names of voters, and now fears for his seat as a result. The government-owned radio and television networks all but blamed the EC for the confusion and anger at the incomplete electoral list, especially in areas where the Opposition PAS and KeADILan is particularly strong. This cannot be confirmed but the polls in Selangor was extended when it became clear when polls closed at 1700, that BN had not lost its two-thirds majority in Selangor but had probably lost the state too. What does seem clear is that even with the extended voting hours it has lost its two-thirds majority. It is a bigger blow to BN than losing Kedah and Perlis. As it stands the BN would well hold on to the two northern states.

The BN decided to dislodge PAS in Kelantan and Trengannu and prevent it from taking power in Perlis and Kedah. As it went deeper into it, it found Kelantan and Trengganu all but impregnable, and its defences in the other two northern states shot to pieces. The does not mean PAS could romp home here, but it would have a greater presence in the two state assemblies that it thought possible. Pak Lah and the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, concentrated their fire on PAS in the four states, and ignored the other vulnerable states. One UMNO insider said that Pahang and Selangor also faces a PAS barrage; could Pak Lah hold his ground if Perlis and Kedah is retained but lose the BN's two-thirds majority in Pahang and Selangor? The traditional view is accepted: that the states from Selangor to Johore is firmly in its hands, but that it is not made the BN panic. But it cannot get its election machinery to work overtime to correct this, as once it could. The only ones interested in the election is the mainstream media and the Election Commission, each making and reporting statements as unrelated to reality as could be. One must look hard to see signs of an election, for the city and its environs show no signs of it. Where the candidates are locked in battle, especially in the Malay ground, there is more interest than is normal. But a visitor from overseas would be surprised to be told Malaysia was amidst an election campaign.

Pak Lah needs to romp home, if possible, with 80 per cent of Parliament and a two-thirds majority in the state assemblies, to be returned as UMNO president in his own right in June. He took a calculated risk to prune the BN list drastically, but it was done in self-interest, and it backfired. He did it so stupidly that those dropped learnt of it from from the newspapers or radio or television after the fact. He changed candidates at random, causing the divisions to close its election centres, in some cases, burning them down, or offering its services to the Opposition. In many a constituency, the BN election machinery is but shut down, and Pak Lah can do nothing about it. He and his deputy, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, rush from one area to the next as internal sabotabe threatens its optimistic expectations. The danger for Pak Lah is the Malay belt - Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Trengganu - and Pahang and Selangor. He could not turn PAS out of the two state governments under its control, Kelantan and Trengganu, but PAS could deny BN its two-third majority in the other states. If he cannot make headway in the Malay states, even a two-thirds majority would not help him politically. The internal squabbles in Johore, Sarawak and Sabah puts even a sweep of these states, which he depended on for his two-thirds majority, not so easy as he thought. The biggest threat to BN candidates in several constituencies is not the Opposition but the BN itself.

UMNO stalwarts complain of 'palace interference' but this cannot be ruled out when BN itself is cock-a-hoop when its candidates are of royal blood: in Pahang, the sultan's brother is a BN MP and deputy minister; in Perlis, BN make much of the King's brother standing on its ticket. The BN ignores why the palace is involved: did it pull up the Sultan of Pahang when he openly called on his subjects to vote for the BN? BN at the centre insists who would be mentri besar. This upsets many a sultan who is prepared to accept any chosen by the state assembly or the BN in the state. But BN would not want that: the man chosen is often not the best man available, but one which would accept Kuala Lumpur's dictates without question. It throws up a constitutional crisis waiting for a hearing. This is partly why Pak Lah could not complete his list of candidates until the last possible moment. In Malacca, the chief minister, Dato' Seri Mohamed Ali Rastam, was to step down for two reasons: a missing hundreds of millions of ringgit from a joint account with a foreign investor; and the civil service's refusal to work with him after his several callous remarks to them about "Melayu bodoh" (stupid Malays). The ACA is reported to investigate the first. Yet he is back in. But the opposition is not positioned to take advantage of this, though it could increase its representation in the next state assembly.

So why does the EC insist on short campaigns? So the BN can romp home free. All its excuses are for no reason than that. The EC is more anxious in 2004 because the BN snaps from within. The deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, rushed to Perlis in front of a BN revolt: many constituency operation rooms are abandoned, one or two burnt, in a state where PAS could, until nomination day, dent the solid BN majority. Now the state could fall. The superficial BN unity the mainstream press talks of is not matched by what happens in the ground. The two-thirds majority is safe, but it comes at a heavy price. Pak Lah's iron control of BN is not there. He had to rush to Johore before nomination, and after calling on the Sultan, change his candidate for mentri besar. In Batu Pahat, several BN operation rooms were abandoned or burnt because the sitting MP is not a candidate. In Malacca, the chief minister Pak Lah wanted dropped stands, with a better than ordinary chance of remaining in his post, despite a financial scandal surrounding him and in which the ACA takes a keener than usual interest.

The prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, has another difficulty: he must appear at the UMNO general assembly in June with the Malay ground on his side. But he came into office too late in the day to address that before the elections. The battle is fought in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Trengganu, Pahang and Selangor. His main opponent is PAS now and the National Justice Party (KeADILan) possibly in the coming years. PAS only has to show it has gained ground in these states by denying the BN its two-thirds majority, as in Kedah. If it can achieve that, and be returned in 50 per cent more seats in Parliament and the states, it has achieved what it wants for this general election. A problem for the BN, more narrowly, UMNO, is that PAS and KeADILan work hand-in-hand in this general election. In 1999, the BN strategy was to deny every KeADILan candidate but its president, Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, a seat. KeADILan had five seats in the last parliament.

UMNO's focus is on Kedah, Perlis, Pahang and Selangor, where PAS has made deep inroads. PAS could not cause upsets in Pahang and Selangor, except in a few constituencies, but it could in Kedah and Perlis, where BN must fighter the harder to retain control. This worries UMNO no end. But long years of neglect, and overbearing state leaders, who behave as Dato' Seri Samy Vellu in fine form, must in the end cost it heavily. PAS believes in softening up the ground, gradually over the years until the state falls into its lap without effort. It worked to a 30-year, or generational, schedule. It got side-tracked in 1959, when it formed the state governments in Kelantan and Trengganu. It lost control of Trengganu two years later. It forgot its scedule, and could not make headwy. What brought it to its senses is its ill-fated years in BN; when that soured and led to its dismissal from Kelantan in 1978, it rethought its strategy and restarted its 30-year schedule. That works to plan. It has Kelantan and Trengganu under its belt, it believes it add the four northern Malay states, and a few others in the general election after 2004.

Pak Lah had to dissolve Parliament and the state assembliers as soon as possible. The superficial loyalty and the still euphoric view of him as Prime Minister is still there, but that must, in time, erode. But if these internal squabbles get a wider airing, it could affect the BN's showing. Pak Lah cannot afford to have these strains surface. While general election is expected, the timing still caught many by surprise. Even UMNO officials were caught flatfooted. Now that elections are due, it be due soon after 21 March. This was the widely expected date, but this is when the first leg of the F-1 motor racing championship is in Malaysia. It is all but impossible to hold a general election on the same day. He needs to win with a large majority, not let another state fall into PAS hands, perhaps have Kelantan or Trengganu seized from PAS control for him to be safely returned unopposed at the UMNO general assembly as its president. As it looks now, he is assured of his two-thirds majority. But how he would fare in the states is unclear. If the Opposition, especially PAS, gains further ground in the states, especially in Kedah, Perlis, Pahang and Selangor, it would not be a good sign.

But all this is cold comfort for the Opposition. An enemy, political or otherwise, is at his most destructive when he has nothing to hope for. We see signs of that in present day Malaysia. The BN, rotten to the core, is still a formidable opponent. It still has aces up its sleeve. What unnerves it is the progressive alienation of the Malay heartland. PAS, for instance, concentrates its guns on Kedah and, to a lesser extent, Perlis, has made inroads in the two states; if the Gods smile their way, they could win either or both. But it is an uphill battle nevertheless. Indeed, Kedah is its better bet, but it is not certain it could succeed. What gives it the confidence is that the BN machinery is as weak to be non-existent. But for the voter to throw out the incumbent government and even the sitting representatives requires a mind shift many are prepared not even to think about it. I do not see this mind shift except at a narrow local level, and in pockets. The BN is well aware of this. This is why it is as equally confident. There would be upsets, of course, but that it can live with. The best the Opposition can hope for in this round is to build the ground for an onslaught in the general election after this. Any other result would indicate the ground is angrier than it is given credit for. And should be counted a success.

THE NATIONAL FRONT (BN) GOVERNMENT is furious that Friday sermons at some mosques throughout the country have a decidedly "political" - by its definition, anti-government - tinge. The only Islam it accepts is what it stands for, however vague or unacceptable it is to the Muslims in the community. Shamsul Akmar, in his political column in the New Straits Times, talks about it this morning (09 February 2004) but he narrows its focus to an irrelevant happenstance: that some mosque sermons equated the horrific rape and murder of a young girl as God's punishment for an UMNO official. The BN, and its predecessor Alliance, government, on the other hand, took it as a political decision since independence to control the mosques politically. But it took this position whilst ignoring how Islam developed in Malaya. There were three strands: in the Federated Malay States of Perak, Selangor, Pahang and Negri Sembilan; the Unfederated Malay States of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Trengganu and Johore; the Straits Settlements of Penang and Malacca. Islam and the mosques developed differently in the three areas, with the added confusion that the five UMS states moved at their individual pace. In the FMS and in the Straits Settlements, the Religious Affairs Department had total control of the mosques in the state, directly or indirectly.

Pak Lah (1364)   United States (636)   Straits Times (412)   Samy Vellu (224)   Putra Jaya (200)   Chief Justice (200)   Saddam Hussein (188)   Vincent Tan (164)   Civil Service (154)   Parti KeADILan (148)   Islamic State (118)   Johore Bahru (100)   Sungei Buloh (94)   Bukit Tinggi (88)   Abdul Razak (80)   Pengkalen Pasir (68)   Ting Pek (64)   Armed Forces (59)   Soviet Union (58)

Malay Dominance (58)   Yong Teck (56)   Hong Kong (56)   Human Rights (56)   Syed Hamid (54)   Puteri UMNO (52)   Islam Hadhari (52)   Royal Commission (51)   Hussein Onn (51)   Rafidah Aziz (48)   Indian Congress (48)   Open House (44)   Vision Schools (44)   Shah Alam (44)   Malay Unity (42)   Chua Jui (42)   Abdul Taib (42)   Ampang Jaya (36)   Ras Adiba (36)

Osama Bin Laden (36)   Nik Aziz Nik (20)   Ling Liong Sik (18)   Lee Kuan Yew (18)

High Court Judge (14)   Wan Azizah Wan (9)   Lim Kit Siang (9)   Megat Junid Megat (8)

Mahathir (2960)

Anwar (2399)