THE NATIONAL FRONT GOVERNMENT can only pass laws on the conduct of Islam for Kuala Lumpur. In other states, although they are in power, they can only do with the consent of the ruler for it is ordained in the Federal Constition, which the National Front and its previous Alliance is responsible. It got its first chance at enacting Islamic law when Parliament, which it controls, got the legal right to pass laws for the Federal Territory. The Federal Territory now consists of Kuala Lumpur, Putra Jaya, and Labuan. The Islamic Family Law (Amendment) (FT) Act is the result. It can only persuade the states, even though it rules all but one, because the consent of the rules is necessary. It would not touch on Islam in its legislation because of this. But it now needs to prove to Malaysians that it is more Islamically inclined, to prove to PAS that it is superior in the introduction of Islam into Malaysia. But it is unfair to call it the work of the National Front. It is UMNO's view, which like in all matters the other parties, Islamic or otherwise, in the National Front defer. It became an issue it had to use threats because the group most affected, the women, protested. But it protested too late. It should have protested before the bill was discussed in the Lower House of Parliament in September.

The UMNO general assembly last September provided much evidence of it. For all the spin, Pak Lah came out of it weaker than before his election. A ground revolt, disgusted at the attempt to shorten his odds to control UMNO, made sure of it. He does not control UMNO. The state chiefs, though nominated by him, is in revolt. The defiance of at least four mentris besar has spilled over into foreign affairs. Johore UMNO is dissatisfied with Kuala Lumpur's negotiations with Singapore over outstanding issues. He cannot reshuffle his cabinet for fear of those dropped turning against him. To be in charge, he had to destroy Dato' Seri Najib, the unlikely flag-bearer of the Mahathir insurrection. The Proton chief executive resigned because of Dr Mahathir's "interference" in the car company is more than that: he bites the hand that appointed him. His importance is only that he is a Pak Lah pawn to bring the good doctor down.

He has rebuilt his international contacts to what it once was, he remains a politician to the core, knows what he does, reads widely – shortly after he was released from prison in September, I bantered with him about the books he had read, only to find he was up to date in his reading, and, of those books I had also read, he pointed out to me several areas I had missed or forgotten – and has a decided view on issues of the day. The Malaysian government dismisses him in the light of his legal constraints to run for political office; he prepares his ground for the day he could, not at the next elections, but whenever.

UMNO in 2004 is in crisis. It would not admit it, but its general assembly, and its election, last week (23-25 September 2004), did not lie, even if its leaders did. It was to annoint a new president, but it ended with him worse off than ever. The three days of election and debate were overshadowed by two issues that its leaders insisted were irrelevant: its former deputy president, Anwar Ibrahim, and vote-buying. Yet both were never far from the lips of delegates and leaders, within and without the assembly.

THE NEW UMNO PRESIDENT, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, must rue the day he decided he could attain power in a vaccuum. A year after he is prime minister, with his UMNO-led National Front (BN) government sweping into power as never before, and unopposed election as UMNO president, he still seeks what he needs most: political legitimacy. He rode rough shod to cling to power, ignoring the quiet resistance of the ground joined by a caucus of his political enemies, taking silence as assent. He is now dealt a fatal blow at the UMNO supreme council elections yesterday (23 September 2004). He and his advisers riled the UMNO ground, helped by a chorus of sycophants, on whom he relied upon much, that he misjudged the forces ranged against him. To the Malay ground, and not only in UMNO, he became a two-dimensional cardboard figure, immensely popular but deeply flawed as a leader. In other circumstances, it could well be different. But not in the present. He mistook feudal obeisance as a mark of his strength.

The sycophantic and orchestrated chorus of thundering support bayed for blood. It missed out on the details. Would Dato' Hishamuddin Hussein, in his closing remarks tomorrow (25 September 2004), demand other traitors to UMNO be punished too? We can start with his grandfather, Dato' Sir Onn Jaffar, the founding president of UMNO, who walked out of the party in 1951 to become an inexplicable foe of UMNO, defeating an UMNO candidate to enter Parliament in 1959 on a Party Negara ticket. What about his successor and Malaysia's first prime minister, Tengku Abdul Rahman Putra, who refused to join UMNO Baru in 1988 and worked to his dying breath to destroy UMNO and its long-time president, and helped ensure that an UMNO renegade, Dato' Shahrir Samad, be returned to parliament as an independent in the 1980s? What about his father, Tun Hussein Onn, who refused to join UMNO after it was disbanded, and supported Dato' Shahrir in that byelection? None were UMNO members at their death.

What happens at these gatherings? On Sunday (20 September 2004), it was the turn of the Selangor mentri besar, Dato' Seri Khir Toyo. The roads to his house were chocker block with hundreds of the latest models of Mercedes Benzes, BMWs, Lexuses, and just about every luxury car you could find parked along the road to the residence at Shah Alam. It would be an understatement to say that the luxury cars alone would have been worth at least RM1 billion. But then UMNO meetings are for aspiring politicians to show off their wealth, their cars and their trophy wives. Twenty years ago, a Malay lawyer and I were on the same flight to Penang. He offered me a lift to my hotel. His old Holden car awaited him. He shouted at the driver that he wanted the Mercedes Benz because he was there to attend an UMNO branch meeting. He ordered him to go back to the mainland and return with the other car. I remonstrated with him to take the car into town, and then let the driver return with the other car. He would not hear of it. And we were stuck at the airport for more than three hours until the Mercedes arrived. For him it worked. He is now a cabinet minister and a candidate for the UMNO supreme council.

WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's triumphal grand entry at the UMNO general assembly this week (from 23 September 2004) descends rapidly into a nightmare. His overwhelming March general elections victory, the ousting of PAS from Trengganu, his more than 99 per cent anointment as UMNO president – each of doubtful provenance – should be enough to welcome the conquering hero. He could not; not that he would not but that he would in an atmosphere of fear and loathing, which resides in the Malay mind beneath the surface and tightly controlled, but which could run amok at an instant's notice. Pak Lah and UMNO misjudged and misunderstood the mood outside, that the Malay ground, even in UMNO, had moved sharply away from the party, the anger nurtured to breaking point by its arrogant assertion that UMNO knows best for the Malays, that it could manipulate the Malay mind at will, that they would not ever rebel, that Malay culture is sustained by an absolute respect for the fuedal lord. This belief is sustained in UMNO even as it dismantled the feudal structure to replace it with one which owed loyalty not to the sultans but to the UMNO president.

At last Wednesday's (08 September 2004) cabinet meeting, three ministers – Datin Seri Rafidah Aziz, Dato' Nazri Aziz, Dato' Seri Rais Yatim – demanded to know why Dato' Seri Anwar was given the saturation coverage in the media and why Pak Lah's son-in-law, Mr Khairy Jamaludin, was at the Anwar residence at midnight on the day of his release. He sidestepped the question about his son-in-law, although he had told the press that Mr Khairy had gone to the Anwar residence because the former deputy prime minister wanted his help to obtain his passport to travel to Munich for his surgery. He said there was no deal with Dato' Seri Anwar. He insisted Dato' Seri Anwar would be neither in UMNO nor the government; the political party he is affiliated to would never be in the government; and ordered the media coverage stopped forthwith. All this showed his weakness. The trio had their own reason for raising the Anwar issue: the first hates him with a passion, the second is still close to him and does all he can to put the government in a spot, the third would be forcibly retired should Dato' Seri Anwar be a force in UMNO.

He taunted his tormentors, banging his head against the wall with a vengeance for justice, pummelled at every turn until unexpectedly last Thursday (02 September 2004), he was released. There was no proof of sodomy, the Federal Court ruled, and freed him. Dr Mahathir disagreed, but when he was called as a witness during the trial, he declined. He and others were more interested in character assassination, not if Dato' Seri Anwar is a sodomist. But when charges are filed in court, the prosecution must prove it. It could not, so he is free. But it would not go away. How do you know he is? He is, you know. When asked for proof, they waffle. Those who accused him of sodomy could not prove it in court. Whether he is as alleged is not the issue; that no convictable evidence was proferred is.

WHEN THE MALAYSIAN AIRWAYS flight landed at Frankfurt airport yesterday (05 September 2004) morning at 06.15 am, the few hundred well-wishers, amongst whom were the Malaysian ambassador, Dato' Kamal Ismaun, and his staff, gave a rousing welcome to the special passenger, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The New Straits Times sent a special correspondent to cover his arrival, who thought it unworthy to report this minor detail. But look closely, and one could see apparatchiks of the UMNO high and mighty. But this goes against the grain: it is difficult to turn a devil into a hero, but that is what it has to do. He went on to Munich and checked into the Alpha Klinik, and expects to undergo surgery today. His back problems worsened after the Inspector-General of Police, Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Noor, no less, beat him, shortly after his arrest, to an inch of his life, and combined with political positions he and the government took reduced him to a near cripple, with neck and back braces and confined to a wheelchair. Who blinked, lost. And the National Front (BN) government did.

THE MORE ONE LOOKS into Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim's dramatic release from prison yesterday (02 September 2004) the more one realises politics, not law, that ensured it. He was charged, humiliated, convicted in a political vendetta. The only way he could be released ahead of time only by political intervention. The prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, like his predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, wanted him in jail for as long as possible. The rules were stretched so he could not get what others charged for similar offences would as a matter of right. The judges, their hands tied, could do little but convict. The speed with which he goes for his surgery – he leaves tonight – raised many an eyebrow. That appears to be part of the deal, that he would leave immediately after his release, and not return for a while as Pak Lah tried to firm his rule. What forced Pak Lah's hand was the fear Dato' Seri Anwar might die on him – horror of horrors – before the UMNO elections in three weeks. Dato' Seri Anwar held his ground, and did not want a deal in which he would lose out politically.

DATO' SERI ANWAR IBRAHIM faces imminent paralysis, neurological, kidney and urinary failure, and, God forbid, sudden death. This is the medical diagnosis. But how and if the jailed former deputy prime minister is treated depends on politics, not medicine. That he is in this state is not his doing. An existing spinal injury kept in check is worsened when, after his arrest on 20 September 1998, when the then inspector-general of police, Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Noor, attacks him, blindfolded, manacled and trussed up, with karate chops that brought him to an inch of his life. He was denied, as it became known later, medical treatment for a few days, when he was left as he was after the attack.

Dato' Mustapha is now beholden to Pak Lah, whose plan for survival is to have him be elected the first vice-president at the UMNO general assembly in September and, in a cabinet reshuffle after, first finance minister. Three years later, he would challenge Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak for the UMNO deputy presidency. But Dato' Mustapha does not have a political base in Kelantan. He is aloof and remote, and comes out on the hustings like a dead fish addressing a convention of second-hand car dealers. Another task in Kelantan to stop Tengku Razeleigh Hamzah, his former mentor, from even thinking of challenging Pak Lah for the UMNO presidency in September.

These are not the only moves planned. Pak Lah wants Dato' Mustapha Mohamed, the minister in the Prime Minister's department, to be the first vice-president in UMNO in September. If he succeeds, he would be the first finance minister in the reshuffle after, and positioned to challenge Dato' Seri Najib three years down the road.

That he survived is testament not to his brilliance nor political savvy but to his most valuable asset, his political secretary for the past decade, Mr Alies Anor Abdul. This quiet French-speaking self-effacing man in his forties, known to the UMNO cogniscenti but not the world outside, is the architect of his steady political rise. Dato' Seri Najib knows this only too well. Especially after he was appointed deputy prime minister, and hopes, soon, by political custom the next UMNO deputy president. But Mr Alies Anor wants no part of it. He wanted to resign his post and, if had his way, from politics,. He was persuaded to stay on until the March general election. He was promoted political secretary to the deputy prime minister. He was asked to stay on until after the UMNO elections in September. He would not. On 31 May 2004, he resigned.

Pak Lah deserves his chance to be UMNO president. But he got off to a bad start. He has had to face one crisis after another, which could have been deflected with good advice, that if he does not pick himself up smartly between now and the UMNO elections in September, he could face an opponent then who could well defeat him easily. He contradicts himself so regularly that one does not know where stands on any issue. The former de facto law minister, Dato' Seri Rais Yatim, was demoted in the cabinet reshuffle after the elections for saying the ACA has indentified 18 high profile individuals for prosecution. Pak Lah said the corruption was in 18 sectors, not individuals. On Friday, 28 May, the ACA director-general, Dato' Zulkipli Mat Noor, said the files of 18 high-profile individuals had been referred to the Attorney-General's Chambers for possible prosecution. Pak Lah wanted the results of the investigations made public. Dato' Zulkipli does not agree, and would not comment. It was known then that at least one high profile cabinet minister and his wife are amongst the 18. But he would not say if the list includes mentris besar and chief ministers.

THE UMNO SUPREME COUNCIL met on Monday (24 May 2004) and decided unanimously, so we are told the next day, that the Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, and the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, are elected party president and deputy president respectively. Or as the UMNO secretary general, Tan Sri Khalil Yaakob, put it: "The supreme council also agrees that acting president Abdullah is elected to the post of president without contest and the vice-preisdent carrying out the duties of deputy president, Najib, is elected to the post of deputy president without contest." All other posts for the supreme council will be decided in elections at the UMNO general assembly starting on 23 September. The obvious questions were not asked: How could the UMNO supreme council elect the party president and deputy president without falling foul of its own constitution and the Registrar of Societies? Why and how did it decide? Tan Sri Khalil's sepulchral announcement - as befits a man, if the widespread belief in UMNO can be believed - who would be soon the governor of Malacca, raises more questions than answers. He would not answer them. But someone must. It could not be left unexplained.

But it did not work to plan. The Court of Appeal last week (21 January 2004), which heard his bail application, denied it, would not read the judgement for the rational reason that it lost control of its own court. All it could was to walk out in a huff when faced with the mayhem. The political decision of Tun Mahathir Mohamed, the former prime minister, to destroy his protege for daring to tell him it might be time to go, by having him convicted on still unproven charges of corruption and sodomy. Dato' Seri Anwar was arrested in September 1998. Five years later, he is still, in Malay and Malaysian eyes, wrongly convicted, and puts the BN's electoral plans at risk. The BN election machinery remains unstuck with the General Election widely expected before April.

IT WAS A BRILLIANT SETUP. This time the National Front (BN) would show how rascally PAS MPs are. It did not succeed now as well. Each time it has PAS in its sights and attacks, it is not PAS but BN which is wounded. This time PAS would not get away, the BN strategists insisted. The accidental BN MP for Pendang, Dato' Osman Abdul, is all but certain he could not be re-elected in the coming general elections against a PAS candidate. PAS is so well-entrenched that he believes PAS could capture the state. So he does nothing to lose if he made a fool of himself. So he asked a question in Parliament on 24 September 2003 which BN thought would tie PAS in knots: Would the Prime Minister reveal how many MPs claimed expenses more than RM10,000. The parliamentary secretary in the Prime Minister's Department, Dato' Noh Omar, decided he would not answer it but focus his attention on one PAS MP, Mr Arpandi Mohamed, who had claimed between RM11,000 and RM12,000 a month for 18 months. It was reported as if he had done something wrong. The BN scented blood. And called in the Anti-Corruption Agency to investigate. The ACA, never missing a chance to reveal its toothless impotence, began its investigations. That it did is linked to with top-level discussions this weekend if general election should be held in December.

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