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An Anwarista Skews The UMNO Elections

UMNO is in a spot. It does not want a by-election. But it faces one it can lose. The UMNO Kuantan division chief, Dato' Fauzi Abdul Rahman, cannot defend his post because 20 branches in the division would not nominate him; he only got nine. He lodges a police report against the UMNO secretary-general and former mentri besar, Tan Sri Khalil Yaacob of abuse of power, alleges a conspiracy to unseat him with bribery, resigns as state assemblyman for Baserah in Pahang. The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, says it is "illogical" for him to do it since the people, not UMNO, elected him. Dato' Fauzi looks at it differently: he was elected on a National Front ticket, and if his party disowned him, he must, in conscience, resign. UMNO is upset a state assemblyman resigns on principle; he insists he can remain in UMNO politics and remain a friend of the jailed former deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. UMNO insists that its president's enemy must be yours too.

His friendship with Dato' Seri Anwar has cost him plenty. He was to be mentri besar when Tan Sri Khalil moved to Kuala Lumpur, but sidelined at the last minute and ordered to leave the palace minutes before the swearing-in of Dato' Adnan Yaakub after the 1999 general elections. The bad blood between Tan Sri Khalil and Dato' Fauzi is not new. He would not have contested in 1999 but for the Anwar pressure group within UMNO and PAS incursions in the state. But the National Front was returned with a bigger majority of seats while losing ground, a quirk in the first-past-the vote electoral system, and felt it overreacted. Dato' Seri Fauzi was sidelined, and the Anwaristas isolated. UMNO wanted to remove, if possible, the Anwarista influence in its ranks, and this year's branch and division elections was where it would.

It was easier, on paper, now, to weed them out in branch elections. To make sure UMNO top leaders are unchallenged, candidates must obtain a minimum number of nominations to run for office. It entrenched the leaders but it also made them so insecure, after the 1999 general elections, but when they wanted to abolish them, in November last year, UMNO delegates disagreed. The UMNO ground is fed up, and dared UMNO leaders to lead without their support. The rules now haunt UMNO. Dato' Fauzi's resignation throws UMNO out of gear. The man UMNO leaders wanted out of this elections is, willy nilly, one to watch. UMNO leaders had assumed no Anwarista sidelined would dare come into the open. Now that one has, it cannot allow any more show of independence. So, it has to ensure the divisional elections which begin tomorrow, would not upset the status quo. The Anwaristas would be left untouched, which they would, no doubt, try to fight their way into the General Assembly.

The Malay is reluctant to confront, so he bides his time before he rebels. In Malay feudal tradition, challenging the feudal leader is "derhaka" (treachery), and so he masks his rebellion with a surface calm until when he can take it no more rebels. Often it is with frightening results. It is not without reason that amok is a Malay word. This surface calm misleads those who believe Dato' Seri Mahathir is in total control. At the November meeting to amend the party's constitution, he had to prod delegates to clap at several points in the speech. Even then it was subdued beyond belief. This time around, the anger, and the stakes, are higher. How delegates react to his speech at the General Assembly would decide how long he would remain in office. Which is bets are placed -- one for RM200,000 that he would not be Prime Minister in August; another for RM50,000 that he would leave early July. No one believes him when insists he leaves in 2004.

He faces more pressure with Dato' Fauzi's defiance. UMNO leaders are so isolated from its members, and the country at large, that they must pay for a full crowd when its president visits a predominantly Malay area of Kuala Lumpur. What he says carry no weight unless the deputy prime minister endorses it. His only backers are those who expect financial gains, and those who would be fed to the wolves should he leave. The longer he stays in office, the more the pressure upon not just him but UMNO and National Front. The UMNO ground once wanted him and the finance minister, Tun Daim Zainuddin, out. Not any more. They want the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, and the information minister, out as well. Should National Front be returned with a smaller majority or is defeated, UMNO leaders in Kuala Lumpur would be more out of kilter. UMNO is weaker in the state since then. PAS influence in Pahang has grown by leaps and bounds, and could well emerge the winner. A former Pahang state executive councillor today forms a PAS branch in Ampang Jaya. He expected a small gathering, but he expects it now to be in the hundreds. He campaigned for PAS in the 1999 general elections. As no doubt in Baserah. To UMNO's discomfiture.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my