Dr Mahathir taunts the Opposition
2002-05-14
The Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, fresh
from his persuading PAS to ignore the jailed former deputy prime
minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, and his 'reformasi' movement
and return politics to one of Malay unity, now taunts the
opposition. He snared the PAS president, Dato' Fadhil Noor, in a
discussion on Palestine by turning the tables on him. The UMNO
strategists clearly knew what they wanted out of this debate.
The PAS strategists thought they could steal a march on UMNO, but
could not. Dr Mahathir by turning up as a humble supplicant,
taking second place to Dato' Fadhil, changed the country's mood
to isolate, if not split, PAS. Malaysian politics has since 1998
been held ransom to what happened to Dato' Seri Anwar. It put
UMNO on the defensive.
So when ABIM, the former political vehicle of Dato' Seri
Anwar, negotiated for this debate, it first wanted Dr Mahathir to
allow Dato' Seri Anwar to go overseas for medical treatment and
stay out of Malaysia while he pursued a doctorate. That was
peremptorily turned down. Agreement for the debate was finally
reached a week earlier, and on Dr Mahathir's terms. PAS, for its
own reasons, found itself held hostage by the Anwar factor, and
wanted him out of its hair.
But it threatens to split PAS as it has UMNO. There is a
clear divide now between the West Coast PAS led by Dato' Fadhil
and the East Coast PAS led by Dato' Nik Aziz Nik Mat, the
Kelantan mentri besar. And since PAS now embraces Malay unity to
the exclusion of Malaysian unity, it warns it could temper its
demand for a theocratic state with a larger political ideal of
Malay unity.
But could the Anwar problem be removed from the Malaysian
political equation so easily, as Dr Mahathir believes so
confidently? That is where both the good doctor and the PAS
president went wrong. Dr Mahathir, at the Shah Alam rally to
mark UMNO's 56th anniversary, went beyond his normal caution to
taunt the Opposition, telling them that the Anwar isssue (though
he could not come to mention his name) is no more, and UMNO and
the National Front (BN) would romp home with an even bigger
majority. He is right in his assessment of the BN's electoral
chances, for what he did was to divide the opposition parties
even more. It becomes even more difficult for the Opposition to
get together, for he has sown suspicion and calumny on it so
deftly that it goes into the polls with both wings broken as
always.
The mistake Dr Mahathir makes is his view that since he has
snared the PAS president, he could the country. The BN and UMNO
is in tenterhooks, not knowing whether it comes or goes, with the
individual parties so deeply scarred with internal problems that
it ensures a reasonably level field when elections come around.
The scale of that emerged when the UMNO president appointed the
defeated former cabinet minister, Dato' Seri Megat Junid Megat
Ayob, as its information chief. If he had appointed a younger
and more active man to fill that slot, it could have made a
difference.
The recent spate of scurillous articles against the Puteri
UMNO in a magazine edited by one who makes it his speciality, it
now appears, was encouraged by her enemies in UMNO. The also
resist moves to make the Puteri UMNO leader an automatic
vice-president.
Dr Mahathir has his strategic sense, and what he says makes
sense. But he cannot get UMNO or BN to do his bidding. For the
BN and UMNO are so frightened of their own shadows that they
would not venture out except in controlled conditions. UMNO
postponed elections until after the general elections for fear of
further splits within if held earlier. This happens when the
leaders want to control who would succeed them. The party
members once went along for it regarded UMNO as its cultural and
political saviour.
The Malay does not now. Not after how Dr Mahathir breached
the unspoken feudal code when he humiliated his deputy, Dato'
Seri Anwar. It is that which dominates Malay politics. He could
orchestrate politics with his awesome powers, but UMNO would
remain as unstable and uncertain of its role so long as Dr
Mahathir remains its head. The next election would go his way,
but the Malay would remain as estranged as now.
The Prime Minister can control his destiny by brute force
and the use of the awesome powers under his control. But all
this would dissemble when he (as he must) leave the political
scene. The superficial unity his leadership provides for UMNO
cannot be sustained after him. Already, UMNO leaders are unhappy
at the prospect of Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi succeeding Dr
Mahathir. Dr Mahathir can slap down, with the authority he
exudes, any challenge to orderly succession.
But he cannot prevent one. Especially after he leaves.
What Dr Mahathir therefore talks of is how UMNO and BN could win
on tactics and not strategy. As his supporters would gladly tell
you, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. And BN and UMNO
would eat. At least after the next general elections. But UMNO
would still have to answer to the feudal crime of its leader
humiliating its leader-to-be.
M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my
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