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UMNO GA V: The Prime Minister resigns, then withdraws it

The Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, shocked the UMNO General Assembly this afternoon (22 June 2002) when he abruptly resigned from all party and official positions. The UMNO Supreme Council promptly met in emergency session to reject it. It is not clear if he would reconsider it. The UMNO General Assembly, which began THursday, was a crucial one for Dr Mahathir, for he had to wean back the Malay ground which disappeared after how he mistreated his former deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Dr Mahathir had turned the tables on the opposition in recent months as he redefined the political agenda to insist Malaysia is a fundamentalist Islamic state pursuing a "genuine" Islamic agenda, one in complete antipathy to PAS's version of one in which he alleged the PAS God is a thug. The Opposition itself is in a quandry about its own insecurities and inconsistencies.

But the Mahathir option was an electoral rhetoric which could backfire since it was one his successors could not sustain after him. He was in total control of the party which needed him more than it needed him. He had tossed the Opposition into tight knots, from which it could not extricate in time for general election expected this time next year. All indications suggest he would romp home with his National Front (BN) obtaining a large a majority as he ever dared hope. But he also had become the main electoral issue for the Malay community. I suggested this morning (UMNO GA IV: The disastrous power struggle-in-waiting) he should hand over power to his deputy so the BN could find its level for a life without him. But I had not expected anything as dramatic as this.

An hour later, he agreed to withdraw his resignation and says he would stay on. But the momentum he had is lost. His wings are now effectively clipped, his ability to manouvre severely curtailed. Suddenly and without warning, he is a lame duck. UMNO strategists must now look at who after him. Without doubt the clear front runner is Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. But with the known anger of more delegates than Dr Mahathir thought there were, two options remains for UMNO: to stick to UMNO tradition and let Dato' Seri Abdullah take over; or take a more drastic measure by wiping the slate clean and let some strong outsider like the Hermit of Langgak Golf, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, take over.

The pressure would now be on him to step down. Those opposed to him who stayed on the sidelines would have no inhibitions now to stand up and be counted. He showed his hand too early, and he could not justify his actions without admitting he overreacted. In times past, he could offer to resign and not have to because he had the ground well entrenched with him. This time he is a cultural lame duck since he humiliated his putative successor in defiance of Malay cultural mores. Since then UMNO has been in torment, and the events today, however irrelevant UMNO says the Anwar affair is, reflects that. A hint of today's drama came with Dato' Seri Abdullah's praise for Dr Mahathir's family, which he described as an ideal one; two days earlier, he had praised the man himself. It sounded odd and out of place. Less than half an hour later the bombshell exploded.

Without a clean break with the past, UMNO would flounder and bring down with it the other parties in BN. The time for a dramatic change has now come. But none can be expected until the immediate shock wears off. An unfortunate consequence of what happened today is that Dr Mahathir would find himself under greater pressure. The magic he had with his ground is utterly and cleanly broken. Whoever takes over has to deal with the chaotic issue of Malaysia as a fundamentalist Islamic state which Dr Mahathir proclaimed, what happens to Dato' Seri Anwar, and other issues UMNO had given much thought to because Dr Mahathir thought for it. It is not one UMNO relishes. What he leaves behind is a mess that his successor would not possibly erase from the public consciousness.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my