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UMNO GA VI: Malaysian politics in a tailspin

On Saturday evening, the Prime Minister and UMNO president, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, commits political sepukku; 17 hours later, the Leader of the Opposition and PAS president, Dato' Fadhil Noor, dies of complications after coronary bypass surgery; throwing Malaysian politics into a tailspin. Political analysts and scientists would discuss in the years ahead why Dr Mahathir did what he did, irrational and incomprehensible it may be to those who seek to find out why. A man all powerful when the UMNO General Assembly began on Wednesday, 19 June 2002, could not have resigned as he did without darker forces at work to demand he shapes up or ships out. There was no surprise amongst party leaders when he did announce it. Party leaders cannot resign in UMNO without permission from the Supreme Council. Both Tengku Abdul Rahman and Tun Hussein did before announcing their departure. Dr Mahathir did not.

The death of Dato' Fadhil Noor places UMNO more than PAS under pressure. UMNO cannot relish it must face two byelections now -- for Parliament and the Kedah state assembly -- in the Prime Minister's home state. It is incumbent of the Prime Minister to come out to campaign but he would not, -- he does not bother himself with such trifles any more -- if he does, the UMNO convulsion is worse than imagined. If he does not, the Malay ground in his home state could shift farther away from UMNO. UMNO, in other words, is not the party it was when the general assembly began. That senior cabinet ministers demanded he stay reflects the leadership vaccuum in UMNO. The sigh of relief amongst the National Front (BN) coalition it leads reveals how dependent its leaders are to the UMNO president. Once UMNO was the central plinth to which the BN parties were limpets firmly anchored to it. Today, their presidents fill that role. The departure of the UMNO president would put their positions in the party and cabinet at stake.

A similar convulsion awaits PAS. Dato' Fadhil Noor represented the secular West Coast Peninsular Malaysian worldview in PAS, often out of kilter with the East Coast leaders who dominate it. He has privately complained about this to his friends and advisers, but it was this which was his strength that PAS could not shake it. PAS cannot now insist that an East Coast leader should fill his place. That is just the signal the non-ulama members would watch for to drift away. His successor as PAS president must be one of his own mould. Three names are frequently mentioned as possible successors, all holding high positions in the PAS heirarchy, and all would be subject to the political pressures from within Dato' Fadhil underwent. Which rules out the PAS deputy president, Dato' Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

A similar convulsion awaits UMNO, where this conundrum is reflected in the moderate secular mainstream pressured by its religious win to take on PAS at the hustings and the Malay cultural heartland. UMNO is egged on towards a theocratic state much the same way as PAS is pushed away from it by the smaller but increasingly influential secular modernist Islamic wing. The UMNO president inexplicably accepts this outside pressure from within, and shakes UMNO to its foundations. The PAS president holds his ground to make its East Wing subject to immense pressure to neutralise it. The political pressures to make one more Islamic and the other less ensures the marginalisation of the multiracial, multiethnic politics Malaysians have become accustomed to. Something must give in this confrontation, but it is too early to predict how it would pan out.

But the more dangerous is how the outside world views us. The speed with which Dr Mahathir's reign dismantled before one's eyes has frightened its financial and fiscal allies. The stock markets tomorrow could well react in shock. If there was any goodwill left in the financial markets overseas -- the first would be the US$3.5 billion bond placement by Petronas in New York -- could the new Malaysian leader, or even Dr Mahathir should he stay against all odds, help or hinder it? The country is run on autopilot since Dr Mahathir's feet was chopped bit by bit after he sacked, humiliated, tried and jailed his putative successor. The biggest problem for the new Prime Minister is how to turn the near stupor government Malaysians have been accustomed to to one which serious acts to stop the rot.

The last four years was a desperate attempt by Dr Mahathir to prove to his Malay cultural ground he meant well and the man was a political charlatan and rascal he is painted out to be. But it is a view he could not get many Malays and Malaysians to accept. Next week, the Federal Court would decide if his nemesis, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, would succeed in an appeal to it that should release him from prison on one of his convictions. The confrontation is so marked now that any victory, however irrelevant, would redound on Dr Mahathir. If he is in office, the more so. The arrest of the South Korean president's second son for his actions during his father's presidency draws unfavourable attentions to Dr Mahathir's own children.

The new Prime Minister is faced with choices he must, but cannot, make: those who want him to stay are those who would be adrift without him. He would not have the free hand he needs if he does not want an UMNO opposed to him. He must do this while the elaborate facade of makebelief Dr Mahathir created the world over crumbles under him. All this was known to the cogniscenti but criticism of official policies, or even informed debate about it, is confined to small groups who are ignored because of their stance.

Within UMNO -- and this goes for PAS and every political party -- there is no debate. The leader decides, and all follow. He does not want conflict, and so problems are papered over, the line of succession decided as a pillar in the Leader's feudal rule not one which comes from confrontation and conflict. That is put to the test. But because the institutions of state are devalued in the personalised governance Dr Mahathir insisted upon cannot provide the stability the uncertainty UMNO -- and to a lesser extent PAS -- exudes. Institutions cannot survive if they are not actively strengthened and sustained as a matter of policy. They are not. Malaysia must now pay the price of that neglect. Meanwhile, politics is irrevocably in a tailspin.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my