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Did he go or was he pushed?

I wrote this for my column in the latest issue of Harakah, out today, 26 June 2002

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Harakah

01-15 July 2002

Column

Did he go or was he pushed?

M.G.G. Pillai

The shock, horror, anger, fright which greeted the Prime Minister and UMNO president, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed's unexpected resignation, and the announcement by his putative successor, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi that he would stay on after all, has the makings of a brilliant stage-managed "sandiwara" (play-acting), though in this instance it backfired so he cannot stay even if he wants to. He is a past master in drawing attention to himself when he is under threat or pressure, and get the crowd renewing its support for man he has led them to believe his is indispensible to the country. So it was on the last day of the UMNO General Assembly (22 June 2002) although his plans did not go according to his script.

He had used every opportunity in recent months and during the general assembly to decry the Malay for relying of official subsidies at every stage of his life, unwilling to stand on his own feet, and blaming him for not making use of the advantages thrown at him to better himself, praised the Chinese for his industry, wanted to bring English back into the mainstream of Malaysian education not as a desirable language but as a political act of vendetta. But he is an important cog in the Malay malaise, especially when he put into place, as education minister in the 1970s and as prime minister since 1981, policies to hobble the Malay -- the over-reliance of Malay in schools and universities, and the creation of Malay billionaire entrepreneurs without their need to know what competition is -- he now finds fault with.

It turns out he has not withdrawn his resignation. When the deputy prime minister and deputy UMNO president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, went to talk to him after his shock resignation, he would not withdraw his resignation and all but told him to make any statement he liked, whether he accepted the resignation or if he would stay. It appears, or those close to him now say, he wants Dato' Seri Abdullah to take over and prepare for the general elections next year. It is too pat an explanation. The official euphoria at his return and the usually irrelevant reporting of the explanation only heightens the view that he has put a time bomb under whoever leads UMNO after him. Meanwhile, he left for a holiday in the Mediterranean less than 24 hours after his resignation.

This year, he found his leadership slipping from him as he berated the Malays, blamed them for his failure to changing him, became too emotional at times, reaffirm Malaysia's transformation from a multireligious, multicultural society into an fundamentalist Islamic state. He was setting UMNO's agenda for the general elections and after which UMNO could not resist or object since it needed him more than he UMNO. If he had wanted Dato' Seri Abdullah to take over by throwing him into the deep end, surely this is not how to.

He could have done it gracefully and have the UMNO general assembly endorse it with enthusiasim and be sent off as a revered leader who knew when to step down. The Malaysian and UMNO view is that he is an indestructible leader who must stay on for at least two terms, that there is no one to replace him. That surely is shattered by his petulance. He could well have orchestrated it to have the general assembly forcibly bring him back. But it would have been folly to do that after he puts forth an election strategy in which a head long confrontation is the guiding principle.

It is a view not many UMNO leaders, including his putative successor, would go along with now. But having taken the fateful step, this political giant is found to have feet of clay. He goes on long leave, which is dangerous for it allows political carrions who rush to centre stage would not be happy if they left empty handed. When all he is said and done, he has not given the country any leadership, preferring to order and state policies by remote control. The country and the government has been adrift awhile, the cabinet tired and listless, heading for a cash and fiscal crunch of such enormous proportions that could well be irreversible. And for all the sychophantic coverage of his 21 years in office, he failed in what he set out to do. There is not one policy that Malaysians in the future can pinpoint as the hallmark of his governance.

The growing opposition, amply showed during the UMNO general assembly albeit in discreet Malay style, suggests he would not have the unanimous support within the Malay community to take harsh measures. The arrest of the South Korean president's two sons and the travails of former President Suharto's children and no doubt the fate of those who would not leave office despite their unpopularity must have weighed heavily on him. But what triggered off his irrational petulant resignation appears to have been in the revolt of the UMNO vice presidents when he wanted to appoint Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah as the finance minister. When every leader of note begged him, before the general assembly, to withdraw his resignation, the three vice presidents stayed stoically in their seats on stage. And the Tengku, who was one of those who went into the room after Dr Mahathir's resignation, to persuade him to withdraw it, seems to have thrown his hat in the ring as a possible successor.

What he did though is to make the succession not as firm as he should have. Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is the preferred heir; he now warns UMNO members not to take sides or spread rumours of an infighting after Dr Mahathir goes. Which means it has already started. What Dr Mahathir did was to make Dato' Seri Abdullah's hold on to leadership as greasy as ever. For what he did yesterday has brought the UMNO Malay political ground, long mersmerised by the iron hold Dr Mahathir had, is in deep trauma. Suddenly, UMNO's future itself is in doubt. The question arises if the present hamstrung group of leaders should take over or some one not liked to them.

In a question of survival, they argue, harsher methods must be employed to turn up a leader who could then work to bring UMNO back to it roots. There might be none among Dr Mahathir's lieutenants. In the perilous times as UMNO is in, the normal rules of succession should be thrown out to bring in one who could at least ensure its continuance as a political party running the government. No one knows this better than Dato' Seri Abdullah. The UMNO Supreme Council meets, at the time of writing, to provide the graceful exit of Dr Mahathir from UMNO. In other words, the question of his staying on does not arise; it is only when and how he would depart that remains to be resolved.

At the same time, the most potent political leader in the country is in jail. He holds that mantle because of how he was humiliated and jailed for what his supporters continue to insist is a political frameup. Although his political aura has dimmed, that he is in jail is a Damocletian sword over UMNO, Dr Mahathir and whoever after him. UMNO politics has not been the same since his arrest on 20 September 1998. Whatever gloss UMNO puts on the Anwar Ibrahim saga, UMNO politics since then is shaken and flounders as the communal hurt of what happened to him rises by the day.

Add to this the unexpected death of the PAS president and Leader of the Opposition, Dato' Fadhil Noor, when a coronary bypass operation in a government-run hospital went horribly wrong, and the nightmarish possibility UMNO is saved from by Dato' Seri Anwar's refusal to have his back operation in the same hospital. It is imperative for UMNO's continued survival in a post-Mahathir epoch that this is put to rest. But could Dato' Seri Abdullah or any one now in the government have that political sense to release Dato' Seri Anwar? All are tainted by their hyperactive condemnation, in public and private, of Dato' Seri Anwar to a degree that they cannot now change their minds.

In one sense, Dr Mahathir is the most prominent victim of that. His political hold declines deliberately and surely -- one the sycophantic institutions of the public will would not even consider -- since his nemesis's arrest, humiliation and jailing. It is now more imperative than ever the Anwar ibroglio be resolved once and for all. In other words, the head start UMNO and the National Front had at the next general election now totters from within. It does not give the Opposition a new lease, only a respite for which it cannot claim credit.

So, did he go or was he pushed? A bit of both and neither. Something clearly snapped in him as the general assembly wore on. His lieutenants were squabbling among themselves, the delegates not as enamoured of him as in years past, the realisation that all this would redound on him eventually, and he snapped. He does not appear to have discussed his departure either with his deputies or with his family. He suddenly found himself so deep in the mess it was, as for Lady Macbeth, as tedious for him to retract as move forward.

But the autocratic leader who blinks has a short shelf life. Dr Mahathir did blink. The usual explanations masks important details of how and why he resigned, the official explanations too pat and contrite. He should have faced the General Assembly and answered questions for which there are no answers. The few details that emerge suggest his family was aware of it. Dato' Seri Abdullah unexpectedly in his closing address dwelled on Dr Mahathir's family, which I thought odd when I heard it.

It suggests that at least he knew. Or he decided to take matters in his own hands, and distance himself from his mentor. At the same time, more delegates openly talked of an UMNO and Malaysia without Dr Mahathir "soon". Were other pressures then working against him? Possibly. The manner of his departure raises more questions than answers. He could have gone on his own, was forced out or a combination of both gave him no option but to leave. In such matters, the iron-clad rule of those who live by the sword dies by the sword is in command. As now.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my