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It is bye-elections time again!

The National Front (BN) and UMNO forlornly hope for no more bye-elections to upset the fractious unity-threatening infighting within over leaders who stayed on too long. The Sarawak National Party (SNAP) is in convulsions after its octogenarian president cannot see why he should give up when he is fit enough to remain when a nonagenarian. The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) president believes he should stay on. How could he not when the Chinese community he represents wants him out? The Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) president, in office for 24 years and not the longest serving BN party president, insists he should stay on for as long as he wants. And woe betide any MIC leader who feels otherwise. The UMNO president resigns, cries, returns to a post he has held for two decades. None see the writing on the wall, and their path to sustained irrelevance in their parties is pockmarked by the odd byelections which frightens them into sudden reality. Amidst an internal crisis, a bye-elections gives the BN "proof" of its unity.

So in this UMNO "sandiwara" which backfired, the UMNO president, and prime minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, cried wolf once too often. The delegates at the UMNO general assembly looked upon in disbelief when out of the blue he cried, announced his resignation, and withdrew it within the hour. He left for a ten-day holiday the next morning and has not spoken to the country since. We are told, not by him, he would stay on until the Organisation of Islamic Countries summit in October 2003. The mood is orchestrated to have him return in glory. The future leaders are unenthusiastic at the prospect. And face an electoral test sooner than they wanted it. Within 17 hours of Dr Mahathir's political seppukku, the PAS president and Leader of the Opposition, died. UMNO faces two bye-elections -- for parliament and the Kedah state assembly. The elections commission has decided it should be on 18 July.

UMNO is in shell shock. The automatic reflexes are in place. The deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is chairman of the BN and UMNO election team, as always. UMNO insists the deputy prime minister must head the election campaign team. This is not surprising. Power is concentrated at the top. Even state chief ministers and mentris besar, nominally in control in their bailliwick, cannot act independently for long. UMNO does not allow lesser mortals to run bye- elections campaigns for fear they would upstage the leaders. So, the higher up the UMNO totem pole one is, the more bread-and-butter political issues one has on one's plate. One has no time to think which is one is on auto pilot most of the time.

The two bye-elections is a test of wills and strength in the UMNO tussle over Dr Mahathir's successor. Dato' Seri Abdullah had better ensure UMNO wrests the two seats from PAS or face more internal party pressures as Dr Mahathir's successor. The BN machinery breaks up into competing power forces, each weaker than the other, as each party within. It has to fight against odds to win. By all accounts, Dato' Fadhil Noor, was a good MP and state assemblyman. The most prominent resident in his Anak Bukit state constituency is the Sultan of Kedah, the two men liked each other and were closer than the Sultan with UMNO leaders. The Sultan visited him at the Hospital University Universiti Kebangsaan (HUKM). Kedah is the only state the BN governs where it does not have a two-thirds majority. It is the Prime Minister's home state. The opposition has wrested one state constituency from the BN in a bye-election. The state UMNO is diffused and divided amongst themselves.

So, one can expect a riot of money and projects to seduce the voter for the BN UMNO candidates. Would it work? It might, it might not. A win in either of both constituencies is, at best, pyrrhic. Especially since it would need to spend, if the past is any guide, RM50 million and more for one constituency. The election campaign rules are specific about how much a candidate can spend, but it places no limit on what the party can spend. Thousands of campaign workers are brought in from out of state in a campaign that is more a jamboree than serious campaigning. It is an excuse to spend money. The more BN and UMNO spends, UMNO believes, the easier the victory. The opposition on the other hand is often hardpressed for money but is compensated by party workers, and this is especially true of PAS, dedicated and focussed to often give an unforgettable black eye to the BN.

The BN and UMNO bye-elections teams are ad hoc, with UMNO the deputy president in charge. And a juggernaut, spliced with threats and money, often successful but the odd defeat causing paroxyms of fear and loathing. The defeats weigh heavily in the UMNO consciousness and to which it reacts irrationally. The BN and UMNO does not debate on issues, insisting it must be returned so it can provide "development" and stability. It gets away with it because the Opposition is defused and diffused, often not knowing if it comes and goes. The only opposition party which is well organised electorally is PAS, and when the two meet, as in the Sanggang byelection in Pahang, some issues get aired. UMNO leaders would have to respond in the two bye-elections they would rather not: Dr Mahathir's declaration of Malaysia as a fundamentalist Islamic state.

Even if the Elections Commission bends backwards to give the BN and UMNO all the advantages. PAS systematically trains its elections workers to insist they know the elections law backwards, and on duty look for infractions as others do not. In Lembah Pantai in 1999 the Opposition candidate lost when one ballot box turned up hours after the counting. None objected. It should not have been counted. It was. The BN candidate won. If the Opposition candidate was from PAS, she would not have. The BN strategy is to deny the Opposition candidate from approaching voters. It adopts houses and villages by placing their election workers in them and denying outsiders from approaching them during the campaign. Which is why thousands of campaign workers are needed from out of state. The Opposition should force the Elections Commission to outlaw the practice. But it does not. Why? The Opposition is its own worst enemy. It does not matter if the BN is feckless. It would win by default.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my