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The Najib Enigma

I wrote this for my column in Harakah, which goes on sale today.

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Harakah

15-31 July 2002

COLUMN

The Najib Enigma

M.G.G. Pillai

THE PRIME MINISTER, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, is not his own man, not after his carefully crafted "sandiwara" went awry at the UMNO general assembly last month and resigned to deafening silence. He went on holiday in the Mediteranean, came back to a not-rousing welcome of a few thousand, instead of the 40,000 promised. He is buffetted in an eye of the storm that threatens political typhoons to force him out. He decided, after his return, the prime minister-to-be, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, should have as his deputy the defence minister and UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak. He did not ascertain if both agreed; neither did. The mongoose and the snake would rather go their separate ways. So he backtracks to suggest Dato' Seri Abdullah consider him. Rebuffed yet again, he now says Dato' Seri Najib is ideal for he is the "most experienced". No Prime Minister could decide on the deputy of his successor. Dr Mahathir tries to change this to forestall open political warfare after he retires.

But Dato' Seri Abdullah knows who he wants for his deputy: UMNO vice president, federal cabinet minister and Johore strongman, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. He would not appoint Dato' Seri Najib on being told to. Nor Dato' Seri Najib accept it at gunpoint. Dr Mahathir believes this forestalls the infighting after he leaves. It is not as simple. All it would is realign political forces in UMNO to strengthen the UMNO warlords under a leader who could not move without their consent. If Dato' Seri Abdullah does appoint Dato' Seri Najib as Dr Mahathir wishes, would Tan Sri Muhiyuddin give up the ghost, and continue to back Dato' Seri Abdullah? Or would he move to the dark horse in this leadership struggle, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah? An informal arrangement exists between Tengku Razaleigh and Dato' Seri Najib should the former decide to contest the UMNO presidency at the next party elections next year. He well could -- whoever the candidate, Dr Mahathir or Dato' Seri Abdullah. With Tan Sri Muhiyuddin, if Dato' Seri Najib shifts.

The simple permutations of past UMNO presidents is not Dr Mahathir's. The new UMNO president is unlike any other. He is not a member of UMNO since its founding. He cannot expect the same loyalty the past presidents had, and be subject to pressures from state and federal UMNO strongmen. Past presidents were immune from this pressure because they were all members of UMNO when it was founded on 11 May 1946. This is accentuated with Dr Mahathir's refusal to let go, and let the new leader make his own arrangements. He wants the automatic succession of past presidents to continue. But he cannot enforce it. Dato' Seri Abdullah dislikes this interference. Dr Mahathir's seemingly irrational statements, not just Dato' Seri Najib as the new deputy, is an Abdullah counterattack, perhaps through Biro Tatanegara, which he established and retains control. Dr Mahathir paints Dato' Seri Abdullah as a feeble leader, which the latter cannot allow to gain currency.

Dato' Seri Najib has the best organised political vehicle, so powerful that if he challenged Dr Mahathir as Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, he would be where the former deputy prime minister is. He is a shrewd politician with his political tentacles so deep that he has his men in not only every division but in many branches in each. He bides his time, knows he can be where his father, Tun Abdul Razak, once was, and prepares the ground for it. His vaccilating character makes him an unreliable ally. It is not forgotten, certainly not in Tengku Razaleigh's inner circle, of defecting from Tengku Razaleigh while on stage to join him. His wife's business connexions, depending on her husband's ministry of the moment, rankles many an UMNO leader. But he knows what he wants, works relentlessly to get it.

What he wants is not to be Dato' Seri Abdullah's deputy. The two men are poles apart politically, with neither comfortable in the other's presence. Each distance from the other so firmly that Dr Mahathir's expectations is fantasy more than reality. Tengku Razaleigh is one of his mentors as his father was to him. But this combination and a more decided worldview of UMNO post-Mahathir than Dato' Seri Abdullah's frightens the latter's forces. Dato' Seri Abdullah's strength is in backroom politics and, to not put a fine point to it, political scheming. He does not have an organisation of his own. Which is why he aligned himself with Tan Sri Muhiyuddin. This link is too firm to break. If it does, it would cost both much, if not as much as an Abdullah-Najib link, at least as dangerous.

Dr Mahathir is out to prove he is in control. All it did in wanting Dato' Seri Najib as Dato' Seri Abdullah's deputy is he is not. Dato' Seri Abdullah is not about to wait until Dr Mahathir decides to leave next year. A leader who announces his resignation so far in advance without devaluing his own persona by sticking to it. The first prime minister, Tengku Abdul Rahman Putra, did so he could be Prime Minister for a day under his nephew, the Sultan of Kedah, became the Yang Dipertuan Agung. He wished he had not. He became a non-person within months, and ignored until decades later. So it would be with Dr Mahathir. As Tun Razak got fed up waiting to be prime minister, so Dato' Seri Abdullah. Especially when the new prime minister is told who should be his deputy prime minister.

Dato' Seri Najib tries to distance himself from the mess Dr Mahathir created. He was a part of that, but by being aloof lto the move to make Dato' Seri Abdullah prime minister, he is thought by many to be more suitable than the man who would. And defuses opposition by insisting he is too young and would rather move ahead with a mentor. As one would expect a Malay feudal lord to behave. Tengku Razaleigh and he favour the immediate release of Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim to re-establish UMNO's primacy in the Malay cultural world. But if this combination takes office, it would destroy whatever political credibility Dr Mahathir has with the Malay. And brought, or so he thought, Dato' Seri Najib to strengthen Dato' Seri Abdullah's hand. Only to see it rebuffed. The Najib Enigma is as alive as ever.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my