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Now the Prime Minister Will Not Contest The Elections!

First the Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, announced, at the UMNO General Assembly this year, he would resign after the OIC Summit in Kuala Lumpur next year. It surprised himself, let alone everyone. Once made, he could not retract it. He had not intended to, but as happens rather frequently, his mind deserts him off and on. His aides built a cordon around him, kept him incommunicado, and speedily sent him overseas on holiday. He returned to insist he resigns as scheduled. Few believed him. This time he is serious. The Pendang and Anak Bukit byelection results put his constituency of Kubang Pasu at risk, which even the constituency realignments could obviate, and made his departure certain. He could get a drubbing, not by losing but by being returned with a narrow majority, as happened to the first Prime Minister, Tengku Abdul Rahman, in 1969.

Unfortunately, this time around, if he does not match his 1999 majority of 25,000 in 1999 he is out. Not even the BN would accept him if his majority is only a quarter of that. So he accounces his decision, off-the-cuff, in response to a question from his audience in Kedah. He has yet to inform the UMNO and National Front (BN) supreme councils of it. He is not in control of his destiny, is buffetted by fears of anarchy within UMNO after he leaves amidst a Malay political resurgency which rejects UMNO in it, his flawed vision of a Malaysian Islamic state that can only benefit PAS. and an opposition that sees, however faintly, the light at the end of a 45-year-long cultural and political tunnel.

The BN planned for elections early next year, but is now postponed until after he retires. Dr Mahathir ensures it. If it is held early, and he is not a candidate, he cannot be Prime Minister in the new parliament. If he is, rumour mills start afresh to add more uncertainties to UMNO and BN. But he would stick to his latest promise. There is no guarantee, especially with Kedah's political uncertainties, in Kedah, the BN and he would not get a drubbing. He cannot afford that. He cannot put UMNO and BN more at risk than he already has, even with the realigned constituencies that benefit them more than the opposition. So, to save face, the general elections would be pushed back.

Other political developments force the Prime Minister into a corner. His statement he is not a candidate in the next general elections evoked little shocked response. Unlike his earlier anouncement. At that time, UMNO leaders rushed to the platform at the UMNO hall at the Putra World Trade Centre, including famously Datin Seri Rafidah Aziz, who lost her shoes in the scramble, to ask him to retract it. This time, UMNO called for calm and accept it for as the UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak said, "because he had thought about it at length and is quite firm on the matter". The UMNO supreme council neither discussed it with Dr Mahathir or amongst themselves about it, but it reflects the UMNO feeling it is doomed without a new leader -- and soon. This exclude the jokers: The Pahang mentri besar, Dato' Seri Adnan Yaakob, believes the unbeatable of Dr Mahathir and deputy UMNO president Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, could lead BN to another win and greater heights, and so he should remain. He forgot to mention that without the Prime Minister's protection, he is yesterday's man.

But this would not prevent, as matters stand now, from UMNO and BN sweeping the polls. The electoral realignment ensures it. These exercises are not meant for anything but to ensure UMNO, especially, would romp home without difficulty. If the BN wins with it, it is a bonus. This time around, it was to stop PAS in its tracks in the Malay heartland -- Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, Trengganu. So, the non-Malay voters in sold Malay constituencies would, UMNO hopes, dent PAS's chances. This, with PAS's inbuilt ability to shoot itself in the foot, helps the government.

There is one fly in the ointment: Parti Keadilan Nasional (Keadilan). Its recent merger with Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) upsets UMNO's calculations that it is a fly-by-night party. Keadilan can hold the middle ground -- not now, but it can -- between the clashing forces of Islamic politics in UMNO and PAS. It represents a fading force of Malaysian politics -- sanity, multiracial polity, the rights of non-Muslims and non-Malays, a secular state. UMNO fears that Malays who object to a theocratic state in UMNO's and PAS's agenda, and non-Malays, would flock to it to form a rational alternative. That was once the DAP's preserve, but like most, it shot itself in the foot. The opposition cannot win without a multiracial coalition. When DAP opted out of the opposition coalition because it objected to PAS's Islamic agenda, it lost ground, perhaps irrevocably.

Could Keadilan be that force of the middle ground? Perhaps, especially if DAP decides to join. But can it? If the Malay is convinced a swing to theocracy is as desirable now as until 1998 it was not, a fractured middle ground would be easy meat for both UMNO and PAS. The theocratic and racial arrogance of both and their seeming view that they ought to colloborate against those who are not with them frightens those not so inclined. When extremes meet, it is the middle ground that gives way. As in Czechoslovakia in 1948. As in Iran in the 1970s. In Malaysia in 2002. Like middle ground leaders in Czechoslovakia and Iran, Malaysia also has one.

He is in prison. We do not know what his political views now are, or even if he would opt for the middle ground rather than join UMNO or PAS, as both parties would at a pinch would like him to. But if he does, he would be damned as firmly as he was when the court sentenced him to long years of imprisonment that all but destroyed his political career. It seems impossible he could rejoin UMNO -- but politics is the art of the possible. And 24 hours is an eternity in politics. But the hope is he would lead Keadilan. Would he?

Both UMNO and PAS sees in Keadilan an unacceptable face of Islamic politics. The UMNO position, still fluid and not discussed in its party councils as it should, worsens the longer Dr Mahathir is its head. Many in UMNO, by anecdotal evidence, is upset at this theocratic trend. And could well boost the ranks of Keadilan if it goes too far. The sooner he leaves the better for whoever takes over, Dato' Abdullah, despite his absolute credentials, still at best a front runner. All of this comes to a head the longer he clings to office.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my