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The UMNO succession is not so straightforward any more

LAST WEEK, THE UMNO MANAGEMENT committee decided the General Assembly in June should be in October to give its President and Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, a fitting send off into retirement. The UMNO information chief, Tan Sri Megat Junid Ayob, announced it. On Sunday (16 Feb), the UMNO secretary-general, Tan Sri Khalil Yaakob, said it would be discussed in the Supreme Council at its next meeting. On Monday, Dr Mahathir would not hear of it, said it be in June. Since the UMNO management committee is senior party officials chaired by the deputy president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, on first glance it would reveal a deep split in UMNO between King and Dauphin. So it was believed. Dr Mahathir has bluntly told Pak Lah he still calls the shots. He should have been consulted of any change. And other fanciful versions suggest an ascerbic confrontation.

But it did not happen. Pak Lah did not chair the UMNO committee; he was in the United States to be with his wife, whose deteriorating health causes much concern. Instead, the UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, did. Since the Pak Lah forces want nothing more than ensure his retirement from politics, this could have been a Najib riposte at these plans. Pak Lah would have taken account of this. Pak Lah is careful not to step on Dr Mahathir's toes, so he would have discussed it with him before drastic changes like this. He knows only too well what happened to his predecessor. Since his trip to the United States was sudden, Dato' Seri Najib chaired it. It is possible, though improbable, he would deliberately create the crisis to put his rival on the defensive. But he is is on the outside in the committee, and he does not have the numbers to push it through.

Dr Mahathir is at his most venomous with his back to the wall. He is a lame duck, the trappings of power mask an impotence that is not discernible at first glance. Pak Lah, in quietly calm deliberation, flexes his muscles, mindful of not upsetting the Old Man, but unmistakably in control. Dr Mahathir realised, in shock and growing impotence, that his old nemesis, Tan Sri Musa Hitam, is firmly in the Pak Lah camp, and plots to reduce him to a cipher in history. He must now counter-attack, not to remain in office, but so his reputation is not badly scarred as he prepares to depart. But he cannot match the forces Pak Lah has amassed. And he is now cornered. He does not have on his side men who could advice him. The two he could, hated in the Pak Lah camp, he cannot ask for help without damaging his own position. One is in prison, the other is on the sidelines, waiting to pounce which he would not except on his terms. The only UMNO leader who would mount the gallows with him, if he must, is Dato' Seri Najib.

This is Dr Mahathir's dilemma. His strategic and tactical ploys often are superb. This apparent confusion on when the UMNO general assembly must be held is one such to make clear he is in charge. He could get away with it because the Pak Lah camp, once certain that the Holy Grail is within its grasp, presumes it is and goes to sleep. But we shall see shadow plays like this from now until Dr Mahathir retires in October. He goes on leave for two months in March, with Pak Lah in charge. He comes back briefly to attend the Formula One motor race. Dr Mahathir returns in May, a month before the UMNO general assembly. In 1998, a similar ploy destroyed his heir-apparent, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. But Pak Lah, to his credit, gives no hint of treachery or challenge. It appears, in this instance, Dr Mahathir tried, not succesfully, to force Pak Lah to shoot into his own goal.

The surface calm in Malaysian politics misleads. Walk into any hotel coffee-shop or wayside warongs of tea stalls in any town in the peninsula, and you would find UMNO men and women planning, plotting, discussing events. If Dr Mahathir could be a fly on the wall at these discussions, he would realise how out of touch with reality he is. That he is brought to this level is his own fault. He assumed, as he went on to be prime minister for 22 years, he is what his acolytes, supporters, courtiers and siblings made him out to be, but out in the bondooks he is Lilliputian, not Gulliver. UMNO's problem now is to wean the Malay ground that deserted him when he humiliated his deputy president. And he collected enemies galore as he deliberately went out to remove the supporters of those he fell out with. They have got together, under Pak Lah, and determined opponents.

Could he survive? Only if Pak Lah loses his cool. So far, he has not. In the UMNO leadership crisis in 1987, Dr Mahathir had the power and the authority to ride rough shod over the opposition, even cheating, without putting a fine point to it, so it would he, not Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who would be UMNO president. But those who backed him then are not with him now. The Pak Lah camp moves heaven and earth they would not return. The anchor here is his old nemesis, Tan Sri Musa Hitam. But there appears to be one major defection, which has surprised even Dr Mahathir: the former finance minister, Tun Daim Zainuddin, dallies with Pak Lah in such intensity that it must unnerve him. A manufactured crisis, like this apparent discord in the Mahathir and Pak Lah camp over when the UMNO assembly should be held, cannot save Dr Mahathir.

How did he get into this mess? He did not understand Lord Acton's aphorism, that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Much of the good he did -- and he has done more than was expected of him -- is dissipated in arrogance and throwing his weight around. His misstep on Dato' Anwar, and the consequent dismantling of his governance, forced him to make fundamental changes into how Malaysia is governed on the cuff, often without discussing it with his officials. Those around him humour him. His 22 years in office has led to the dismantling of the Malaysian state. His government has ignored the dissatisfaction amongst the ruled, that it is out of step with their views. The Anwar Ibrahim affair drives droves of Malays into the hands of PAS, though that is temporary. He deliberately turned the National Front (BN) on an Islamic route, declaring Malaysia is an Islamic state, without consultation, upsetting Malays and non-Malays alike, the only debate allowed on this is left to the ulamas to dictate.

Now that he wants support, it is not there. He is no more trouble than he bargained for. He is in for the roller-coaster ride of his life. He dropped his guard, ignored the forces building up against him, does not dictate events, is buffetted between the pressure groups and political groups out to make him a non-person. But one cannot rule him out. He is in his predicament because he lowered his guard. He does not any more. This manufactured crisis is the first of many to come. Meanwhile, one fearsome possibility frightens the Pak Lah camp: that the man could well give it all up in the light of his wife's worsening illness. He is made of sterner stuff, and one who would soldier on, whatever the personal setbacks, and would make sense only if others around him are more interested in him being prime minister than he himself.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my