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... And Anwar, as expected, loses his appeal

THE COURT OF APPEAL COULD NOT but dismiss the former deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim's appeal this month against his conviction for sodomy, as against his adopted brother, Mr Sukma Dermawan's. His supporters, and others, including international and national human rights bodies and NGO's are incensed at the injustice of it all. The government is pleased with it, but cannot, as in times past, welcome it. The Court of Appeal had no choice but to make a mess of it. It is his luck that the appeal came amidst a regime change in Malaysia, in which the Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, leaves office in October under a cloud, and Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi succeeds him to an uncertain throne.

The Court of Appeal also denied Dato' Seri Anwar's request for bail while the appeal for the sodomy charges went to the Federal Court. His appeal against corruption, for which he was jailed for six years, is not completed, although his six year's sentence has. He had asked for bail against the nine years jail term for his sodomy convictions. The simple truth is he could not be out on bail without turning that into a political campaign. The courts, more so in Malaysia, is the conscience of the establishment. Which is why politicians are convicted of criminal offences, so to mask a political confrontation into something criminal. The courts would side with the establishment in any political confrontation. And, however much Dr Mahathir might insist it is, the Anwar Ibrahim affair is not criminal, but political. The Malaysian courts, and Dato' Seri Anwar, believe so too. In any political confrontation before the courts, the courts would side with the Establishment. And so it has, in the Anwar affair.

A growing opinion in UMNO, the only political party that matters in the National Front (BN), believes so too. UMNO is split in how to deal with the man, any decision it takes would split it even further. If Dato' Seri Anwar's convictions were only criminal, this divisiveness in UMNO, the BN, and Malaysian society would not have been as profound. Dato' Seri Abdullah takes over as prime minister in October, unsure if he would be challenged in the UMNO polls in June, and if he is, he could be returned. Before that, he must decide if he wants general elections before or after that. On present indications, he is inclined to general elections earlier, perhaps as early as March or April next year.

There is no doubt the BN would romp home. The opposition is so diffused and fighting their own battles with each other to form a united front. The BN, as divided amongst themselves, would unite to win. But it would be at a cost. The Malay states - Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan and Trengganu - is in ferment, and if current indications have any basis, Kedah could well fall to PAS. PAS is also said to be ahead in Pahang and Selangor. Kelantan and Trengganu would remain with PAS. So, if Pak Lah comes to the UMNO general assembly in June with seats, and states, lost, he could face a tough battle for legitimacy. Helping the trend is, make no mistake of it, the Anwar affair, not only with UMNO split and the Malay ground on the sidelines.

In other words, when the BN's future is in doubt, if a political opponent is kept in prison a while longer, no BN leader would lose any sleep over it. It is this, I fear, those campaigning for Dato' Seri Anwar's release chose to forget. It is not public clamour or demonstrations that would get Dato' Seri Anwar released. The two sides fight this battle in public, so that the winner and loser is easily identified. The BN in power would not allow Dato' Seri Anwar to win, and so this judicial charade. In the worst of political confrontations, interested parties on both sides would keep a channel of communication open so that a possibility of an accommodation exists.

It is unfortunate that in this political confrontation, there is none. Because of it, this matter could not be resolved so long as Dr Mahathir is in office. It was he who decided, when he drummed Dato' Seri Anwar out of UMNO and into prison, that he must be treated, in UMNO, as the political pariah he is not. Now, when he would wish, for his own place in history, for that, there is none. Those who thought, in UMNO and BN, Dato' Seri Anwar should have not been destroyed as he was, found they could not survive politically. So they grieved in private and moved quietly to the sidelines, the normal tactic of a Malay upset with his government.

Dato' Seri Anwar's genius is, much to Dr Mahathir's fright and annoyance, to turn his predicament into a feudal dilemma for the Malay. He succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. Pak Lah's advisers now talk, and it does not seem to be idle talk, of an UMNO-PAS political alliance before the general elections in March, so that he could face the UMNO general assembly with the Malay ground solidly behind him. Cabinet ministers, especially those who are not in his camp but would glad join the moment Dr Mahathir steps down, talk favourable of PAS that PAS leaders themselves are unsure of what goes on. But for this to happen, Pak Lah must take the distasteful step of first releasing Dato' Seri Anwar from prison. PAS would not, on present indications, consider it if he is not.

So, five years after Dato' Seri Anwar is sacked from UMNO, what happens to him continues to split UMNO asunder. Pak Lah, up to now, is opposed to release him. He is a political rival from the same state, Penang. And Dato' Seri Anwar out of prison, for whatever reason, now is dangerous for Pak Lah's political survival. Dr Mahathir would not hear of any deal that would have Dato' Seri Anwar out of prison. But UMNO must decide. Or disintegrate.

The Court of Appeal dismissal of Dato' Seri Anwar's appeal therefore does not surprise. He is too dangerous a political figure to be allowed to run loose when UMNO itself is so brittle. So he must remain where he is. Until Pak Lah takes over, and has to do the running so he could remain Prime Minister. It is time for the Anwar supporters to focus their campaign to release him on a surer political footing than it has shown in recent years. It is easy to dismiss the predictable pressures thrown at the government and the judiciary, but not when that is done with cold political strategy and deliberation.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my

The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, insists Dato' Seri Anwar is convicted of crimes, and he is, cannot be, a political prisoner. He had turned his arrest into a political confrontation by second guessing the charges against Dato' Seri Anwar by telling the world why he was dismissed and charged, and then refusing to come to court and give evidence about what he knows. It was obvious to

The
verdict is an injustice, make no mistake, but any other would have added one more uncertainty at a time when

It is an injustice, but his fate is intertwined with the political survival of the government. If Dato' Seri Anwar had won his appeal, the National Front (BN) government would have been far more out of kilter than it already is. For make no mistake, the Anwar Ibrahim affair has become, in the five years since it burst into the open,