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UMNO GA 2003 - VI: An UMNO without Mahathir

THE UMNO GENERAL ASSEMBLY, WHICH ended its 57th annual meeting - never mind UMNO leaders thought it was its 54th - heralds more change than is realised. The outgoing president, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, is its last who was a member of UMNO on the day it was founded on 11 May 1946. The new president was only 7 then. For the first time one saw why UMNO leaders are so upset at the dominance of women in UMNO and lurched feebly into turning Malaysia into an Islamic state to stop them in their tracks. However smooth the political transition, the new Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is not out of the woods. He cannot breathe easy. All contenders agreed to abide by his choice of his deputy, which he would in any case reveal only after he moves into the gilded chair.

But some who promised fealty spoke with treason in their hearts. His continuance in office after the UMNO general assembly next year (in 2005), when elections are due, is subject to matters beyond his control. It would depend on how the BN and UMNO would fare in the general elections, which in all probability would be held earlier, and if he would be challenged for the UMNO presidency and by whom. UMNO treads into unchartered waters, its organisation in shambles, its political focus burdened by the overshadowing presence of a near cripple confined to a wheelchair in Sungei Buloh prison. The rot cannot be reversed without a reformation from within. But there is no heart for it amongst those in control. One officially requested intelligence assessment gives UMNO and BN only a majority of 20 parliamentary seats in an election if Pak Lah is leader.

These assessments can go horribly wrong. One does not know if this one is any better than the recent trend of proferring only advise the leader wants to hear. And the intelligence community itself is so partisan that the results could depend on who is asked for the assessment. One should be shocked at this, but those in office is blase about it. UMNO is tied together by a mismash of contradictory values, most of which has little to do with why it was formed in 1946, the possibility of greed beyond dreams, in a society where long held cultural values are ignored for greed and debt beyond the ability to repay, and a by now well ingrained belief that they UMNO exists to allow its leaders to behave as they like.

There is always ample evidence of this at UMNO general assemblies. Ninety per cent of those at the assembly - the delegates, those who came for the ride, the curious, the stall holders, all ten thousand of them - could not afford a cup of coffee in the only place in the Putra World Trade Centre there is: The Riverside cafe. One roti canai costs RM4.00. As the coffee. And others in astronomic progression. The aim of the PWTC was to make as much money out of it as it could. It was a simple matter of UMNO underwriting the cafe by paying it a lump sum, and it then serves basic food at reasonable rate. For those who want more salubrious settings still had the dining room where only buffet is served. The only contact with the masses the UMNO leaders came into contact were at lunches and dinners they hosted on behalf of their states or constituencies. Where once it would have worked, it would not now. Leaders are afraid to come in contact with the masses.

Meanwhile, the ground erodes from under its feet. This can only get worse. Pak Lah has a clearer notion now of his political patrimony but, like Dr Mahathir, he is served badly by those who advise him. The latter did not take kindly to advise he disagreed with. The former does not whose to take: he has around him eight or nine distinct groups, all surrounding him like vultures for contracts and a passport to easy wealth through cronyism and connexions to him. Few who take a serious interest in looking at the country behond that are sidelined. How could, as one told me during the UMNO general assembly, he have a role when he is not interested in contracts or being a crony and his only interest is to see Pak Lah hold on and the country get back on rails after the derailment Dr Mahathir effectively engineered.

Despite the glowing reports of how smoothly the transition went, nothing could be more wrong. Dr Mahathir, it must be remembered, never once praised or otherwise indicated Pak Lah would succeed him. It is not enough to say it is understood. He had to say it. He did not. For many still believe Dr Mahathir is not about to let go. He gives the impression Pak Lah cannot step into his shoes, and his backers and supporters till have dreams of a successor other than him. As it stands now, that is not on. Pak Lah is the next UMNO president and Malaysian Prime Minister. But it does seem to one closely watching events, but not in the maelstrom, that Dr Mahathir's actions, at the general assembly and in recent months, appear to undercut the stability of the succession. I could be wrong, as often I am.

The false banter and camraderie hides these fears, ascerbated by UMNO ignorning the Malay cultural ground. Issues abound which are not addressed. This belief that an order from on high is proof it is carried out is now ingrained in the BN and UMNO psyche. On the grander international scene, President George W Bush and the US administration is afflicted with the same megalomania. Those on the ground are not easily fooled. The reaction to BN and UMNO's active support for gambling is a larger issue than UMNO would admit, and cannot be easily deflected with claims, as Dr Mahathir did on Saturday, in his closing speech, of PAS not following the Islamic path. Whether it does or not is the issue. Does what it says have any basis? Diverting attention from the central theme might work awhile. But not all the time. Now it must address, and UMNO looks for diversions.

This is the UMNO and Malaysia Pak Lah inherits. He sits atop a constantly shaken greasy pole, and the supports he has to keep him there are, in the Bolehland pattern, of substandard material. What Dr Mahathir should have done is to have said, clearly and unequivocally, that Pak Lah is in charge from the end of the general assembly, that he would only be a guide, philosopher and friend, there if he is needed, but otherwise clearly staying out of the way. But, if the rumours are correct, He plans a cabinet reshuffle, perhaps as early as Wednesday. Two names are mentioned. Both deny it. But both are clearly Mahathir men. One hopes it is not true. But Dr Mahathir has stayed in office as long as he has for his unquestioned ability to be several steps ahead of his enemies and detractors.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my