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The BN spin begins for the coming general election

THE NATIONAL FRONT (BN) POLITICAL party presidents believe that if they parrot their hopes often enough to an unbelieving citizenry, all is well. The United Malays National Organisation president, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, and his successor in three months, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is no doubt that theirs is the strongest party in the Malaysian political horizon, raring to lead the BN into another awesome victory. Dr Mahathir has only been in office for 22 years. The Malaysian Chinese Association president, Dato' Seri Ong Ka Ting, is made president to continue a divisive party divide which came about when his predecessor, Dato' Seri Ling Liong Sik decided they exist at the UMNO president's pleasure. Dr Ling was president for only 17 years.

The Malaysian Indian Congress president, Dato' Seri S. Samy Vellu, is sure his party will romp home because it is virtually indestructible under his great and glorious leadership. He is in office for 24 years and expects the party to be industructible as he confidently marches to three decades in office, when he would, like Dr Mahathir, reluctantly consider retirement. The Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia president, Dato' Seri Lim Kheng Yaik, believes his 24 years as party president cannot do but good for his party in the general election. How can he then retire? These four parties are the mainstay of the National Front Dr Mahathir, and after October Dato' Seri Abdullah, leads.

The other political parties in the BN with presidents drugged on the perks of office, believe they play a useful indelible role in the affairs of the BN and the nation and, when general election comes, at the hustings. When they often are a hindrance. Self-importance is the first attribute of a BN leader. Even the PPP leader, Dato' M. Kayveas, with no elected seat in parliament and seats in the state assemblies less than the fingers of one hand, believes his role in national politics exceeds that of Dato' S. Samy Vellu. Never mind that his ideas above his deputy ministerial station has transferred him laterally into a dead end. Ozymandias, King of Kings, - as they believe they are - will not be denied his grandeur and, though unlike him, his irrelevance.

In Sarawak, the BN leader, Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, is in absolute and autocratic control for two decades, with no plans to step down. Revolt in the air. There is a move, with UMNO's and Kuala Lumpur's backing, to force him to step down. If he refuses, the other parties in the state BN coalition would leave the coalition, isolating his Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (the United Pesaka Bumiputra Party of PBB). Sarawak has been the stranglehold of Tan Sri Abdul Taib and his estranged and now infirm uncle, Tun Abdul Rahman Ya'akob. The state is run as a personal fiefdom, in much the same as the late Tun Datu Mustapha bin Datu Harun once ran Sabah.

In Sabah, the crisis of a different kind. The state UMNO is divided nine ways, with the eight warlords unhappy with the other running the state. That is not all. UMNO went into Sabah at the instance of one Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, and against the general desire of UMNO leaders. He had formed UMNO with a purpose, as a pressure base. The leader he chose still controls UMNO in Sabah, though he has moved away from Dato' Seri Anwar after his fall. But the undercurrent of strength within UMNO for him is still considerable. Besides, many UMNO leaders then are now in the Opposition. The non-Muslim groups also form important pressure groups, with some believing their future is better with the Opposition. The growing presence of the Parti Keadilan Rakyat, an amalgam of the Parti Keadilan Nasional, formed in part to fight for Dato' Seri Anwar's release from prison, and the Parti Rakyat Malaysia, is a wild card in the elections.

The BN believes what its leaders say is more important than the problems on the ground. A regular diet of good news on how well it does as the country heads for a general election is all that is needed. Everything else is unimportant. Which is why Dato' Seri Ong Ka Ting has decided the MCA crisis is over because he says so, and how under his stirring leadership, with a little help from the triads, he would lead the MCA to victory. This view can be replicated in every BN political party. The BN is headed for a glorious victory. That is all that matters.

The Alliance, as the BN's predecessor was known then, was as supremely confident in 1969. I covered politics for the Malay Mail then with an Australian reporter and good friend, Michael Quinn, now alas no more. On the morning of the elections, we went to see the Alliance secretary-general, Senator Tan Sri T.H. Tan. The Alliance was so upbeat that many who should have known better talked a clean sweep. When Quinn suggested it would be 80 for the Alliance and I thought 73, we were ushered into Tan Sri Tan's room, who wanted to know how we came to that.

We had no formula, only that the Alliance had clearly lost ground, especially the impact of the funeral march of a Labour Party supporter who was shot dead in Jinjang, on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, as he pasted posters calling for a boycott of the polls. The Alliance dismissed it in the belief that they, not some rabble, dictated how people would vote in the general election. Tan Sri Tan wanted to know which constituencies: we reeled of several at random. When he called their operations room, he was given a catalogue of problems and shortcomings. It shocked the Alliance - but it was returned in 72 constitutuencies, with polling in one constituency, in Malacca, delayed when the BN candidate died. But of course other considerations came: the rioting, the state of emergency, the virtual Malay coup d'etat.

This is not to write off the BN in the coming general election. The opposition is as unprepared as ever, more from its internal contradictions, and without a clear head. For the opposition to be in power in Malaysia, it must have a multiracial front as the BN. This is not possible unless all parties agree to submerge their more contentious policies for policies that would be acceptable to the people. So far there is no sign of that. But there is in the BN, where it is not policies but of what the leaders would lose if they fight the election disunited.

The opposition cannot yet agree on that minimum policy. There is still disagreement on PAS's Islamisation policy. If general election is either later this year or early the next, the BN could well do as well as in 1999, although this would depend on how well it does in the Malay states, where PAS is particularly active. This in turn depends on who the BN candidates are. Several BN cabinet ministers and mentris besar see defeat on the wall and consider retirement. The opposition's best chance, as in previous elections, is for the BN to self-destruct in individual constituencies. Except in Kelantan and Trengganu, where it fights an uphill battle to wrest the state from PAS.

For the BN parties, its present political uncertainties is a culture shock. They were shocked by the outpouring of public support for Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, after he was sacked, jailed, beaten to a pulp, and humiliated. It struck a sympathetic chord amongst a long suffering people who had to face an arrogant government and leaders who decided what is best for the people, and sidelined them except during the general election. The BN is in a state or rigor mortis, its huge electoral majorities enabling it to do as it pleased, without consulting the people and parliament. That now comes home to roost. At an inconvenient time: the new leader is not as strong at a time when the individual BN parties strain at the leash to have some role in the making of policy, and the younger Malaysia is fed up with the mollycodding and spoon feeding they are told they must accept. Times have changed but the neanderthal policies of the BN have not. Spin would not change anything.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my