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The BN is caught in a trap of its own making in Sabah

THE NATIONAL FRONT (BN) IS IN a quandry. With General Election looming and a new leader in less than six weeks, the going is tougher than its worst nightmare. In every previous election since the first in 1955, it decided how, when and indeed who, would win, in government and opposition, so dominating it was on the Malaysian political landscape. But 1999 and the Anwar Ibrahim affair which preceded it brought home the stark reality of a Malay hinterland which decided enough was enough and moved to the sidelines: Malay support for UMNO and BN, until then unquestioned, was no more. The BN's strength was underpinned by this cultural and political Malay support: when that faded, so did the BN's hold over the Malay.

So to retain its two-thirds majority in Parliament, it must win handsomely in Sarawak, Sabah and Johore. In the other states, it faces a strong challenge from PAS and other Opposition parties. In the states, it is more critical. A secretive study about the BN's chances, commissioned by the Prime Minister's Office, says the BN could not regain Kelantan and Trengganu and could well lose Perlis and Kedah, with Pahang and Selangor problematic.

But when BN decided to up the ante and hold election first for the Sabah state assembly, in its misguided belief it could rout the Opposition, as its Tun Datu Mustapha bin Datu Harun could, and did, a quarter of a century ago with such strong arm tactics as tying an opponent under his house with a dog chain so he could not file his nomination papers. Those days are over. Today it is a federally-controlled and -directed Sabah UMNO that is in control, and its years in office denigrated every promise it made to Sabah when it took office. Instead, and much to the disgust of Sabahans, it became a loyal poodle of Kuala Lumpur's interests. One corporate figure describe the role of the Sabah UMNO chief minister as a branch manager to the head office, with little or no power to act independently.

The Prime Minister. Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, who is also UMNO and BN president, is now in the eye of the storm. When he considered dissolving the Sabah state assembly, he was stopped in his tracks when PAS decided it would dissolve the Kelantan and Trengganu state assemblies at the same time. And left the question open if they would anyway when federal and state elections are called for.

Far more serious though were dissension within the Sabah UMNO and Sabah BN ranks. The political structure in Sabah has been so modified that UMNO dominates BN in the state. It now wants a Sabah UMNO man as chief minister as the federal UMNO chief is Prime Minister. This has annoyed all and sundry, including its own allies. Then Sabah UMNO decided it wanted to contest in 36 of the 60 constituencies. the Kadazandusun communities 17 and the Chinese seven. Dato' Musa Aman hopes to continue as chief minister after the election, but the Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) deputy president, Dr Maximus Ongkili, said in Papar on 04 September that he would be the next Chief Minister. "I am almost there," he said. This raises the intriguing question of what happens to Dato' Joseph Pairin Kitingan, the PBS president.

And to the rotation formula of selecting the Sabah chief minister within Sabah BN. It was once Muslim bumiputra, non-Muslim bumiputra, Chinese in two year rotations. It is now modified to Sabah UMNO, Kadazandusun,UMNO, Chinese so that the non-UMNO communities would have to wait eght years for their turn, instead of six. After the election, it would considers a plan to ensure the chief minister would always be from Sabah UMNO.

This already faces flak from the coalition partners. The Sabah Progressive Party president, Dato' Yong Teck Lee, has indirectly criticised this plan by suggesting that Sabah adopt the Sarawak model in which all BN parties have a say in government and policy. Small though the party he leads, Dato' Yong is at the tip of the Sabah political iceberg, and aligned, by past political attachments, to the Sabah for Sabahans movement that is fast taking shape. In this group are the former chief minister, Dato' Salleh Said Keruak, Dr Ongkili, among others.

This is why Dr Mahathir's presence at the PBS annual congress on Monday, 08 September, is important. He must decide soon if the state assembly would be dissolved on 16th September, to coincide with Sabah's 40th anniversary in Malaysia. With Dr Mahathir meddling in the runup to the election, where does this put the prime minister-in-less-than-six-weeks. Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who has stated he would like Dato' Salleh in Kuala Lumpur in the federal cabinet to neutralise him in state politics and deprive the Sabah for Sabahans movement of a credible leader?

Besides, Dato' Salleh is, at least was, linked to Dato' Seri Anwar, and any tenuous link that survives could be injurious to the new prime minister's political health. But it does not make Dr Mahathir's dilemma any easier. If he does not call for state election in Sabah this month, it is a sign that the cracks within Sabah BN and UMNO is more serious than what they are prepared to reveal. More important, BN is caught in a trap of its own making in Sabah. And which could well spill over on to the peninsular.

[This is my column in Harakah, the fortnightly official organ of Parti Se Islam Malaysia (PAS), and published 09 September 2003]

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my