MGG Pillai Commentary View

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Make no mistake, this is an election budget

THE DEFENCE MINISTER, DATO' SERI NAJIB Tun Razak is livid. How dare PAS call it an election budget? Does not PAS know the National Front (BN) government would never stoop to such crass electoral tactics? Unfortunately, he spoils his case by some electioneering of his own. The defence budget he says would be equitably divided amongst the three services. Why does he have to say it? Has it not been so in previous years? Is it so the anger within the armed forces - more so the soldiers, sailors, airmen - at the politicians for the corruption-ridden penny-pinching upgrading of the armed forces, usually ignoring their technical objections could be obviated?

The budget does not address the fundamental weaknesses of the country's fiscal and financial illnesses. Little or no mention is made of the off-budget agencies and their profligate budgets for which the government is ultimately responsible. Parliament has no oversight of it, but in Malaysia it provides the government with a parallel budget almost as large as the national budget but over which the elected representatives have no control of. The government makes use of their funds to hide its own profligacy before Parliament. Putra Jaya is built out of Parliamentary reach because its construction is funded by Petronas, an off-budget agency. Plans are afoot to sell a large chunk of its petroleum exploration arm to a crony, and Parliament is not told about it. But the budget does not discuss its impact and reach and is presented to Parliament more to hide the cancer within than any attempt to cure it.

The government admits the next few years would force us tighten our belts, but has taken no measures to prepare for that. The election is coming; the BN is in sixes and sevens; if it does not turn the political ground its way with immediate relief, often not thought through, it believes it could lose further ground. Just one example would suffice: the social downside of removing the licence fees on motorcycles of less than 150cc. Would this mean they need not be insured. No. How would the government ensure that? It does not know how. But it is presented as a great help to the poor, although it is to wean the disaffected youngsters back into the BN fold. Would that work? The government hopes so. The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, who is also finance minister, presented, by the Grace of God, his final budget. The caring BN government he leads does look after the voters. He throws crumbs off the budget table at them, and if the fawning coverage in the mainstream media is to be believed, this would ensure a financial and fiscal prudence that would cosset Malaysia against globalised attacks on it.

An election budget which ignores the national bankruptcy this country faces with no respite in sight is criminal. The BN has none to blame but itself. The 22 profligate Mahathir years cannot continue. The Pharaoh's seven fat years must follow seven lean years. Malaysia cannot escape it. The good times should have prepared the country for the bad times, but in Malaysia the government decides that such laws of nature would dare not visit us because the BN is in power. So much emphasis is laid on the nation listening to the budget address in full that it was repeated in full the next day on those television channels where it was not broadcast live last Friday (12 September 20030.

The BN leaders in the cabinet could not contain themselves to declare how wonderful the budget was, how it cared for the poor, and how it would continue to target Malaysia as a developed nation by 2020. It is a safe bet none read the budget speech nor understood it. Does that matter? They could not in fear of their rank and position say anything else. The sectional groups, given their crumbs, are effusive. Different groups praise it for narrow interest, and spokesmen quick to say how wonderful it was. And how wonderful it would have been if they had been given more. It has always amazed me how quickly the man-in-the-street says all the right things the government likes to hear about its budget, year-in year-out, while those who matter and need to study its impact do not know what to make of it.

There is no serious discussion or critical comment on the budget in the mainstream media, except to say how wonderful it is. The budget does not deserve the national euphoria over it. So, why is Dato' Seri Najib upset when it is described for what it is: an election budget? If the behind-the-scenes manouevres come to fruit - it almost certainly would - he is deputy prime minister when Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi succeeds Dr Mahathir in six weeks. That would be his poisoned chalice. Especially if also is either home or finance minister. That has led to a reorganisation of the Pak Lah ranks, with some of them making unannounced visits to the Hermit of Langgak Golf. Why, I wonder, do they call on one whom UMNO and BN leaders refer to as a politician who has missed the boat. Is this why even Dr Mahathir now wants him in Pak Lah's cabinet? Does this therefore mean one has to be a discredited politician before one could be a cabinet minister?

No one explains or understands the fundamentals that went into making the budget and if it had been addressed. For that, accountancy firms hold seminars costing thousands of ringgit to attend to "explain" what it is all about. These seminars are a running commentary of the budget as it was presented and often does not question its authencity or if it addressed what should have been. And sell their reports for those who did not attend for hundreds, even thousands, of ringgit. But to the man-in-the-street all this is irrelevant. He is happy that taxes and licence fees are reduced or abolished, and quick to repeat what their leaders say and this is taken to mean that all is well.

Malaysian statistics are at best of doubtful value. In one celebrated instance, statistics were doctored, in the Prime Minister's Department, no less, so that visitors could be told how well the country does. In the mid-1980s a seconded UN agency specialist had set up the computerised setup for these briefings. He downloaded some examples for his report. He mislaid that. So he downloaded them again. As he wrote his report, he found the missing set. And found to his horror that they were so widely off the mark. When he raised it with the Malaysian government he was told he should not interfere. I understand this continues. Statistics are doctored as a matter or course. This is the main criticism international agencies hurls at Kuala Lumpur. But when these same statistics are incorporated into the budget speech, it is taken at face value, and the same naysayers are quick to say how wonderful it is. It is the more so this year. There is only reason for that: an election budget.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my