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And the new Prime Minister is ...

THE PRIME MINISTER, DATO' SERI MAHATHIR Mohamed, has given up the ghost. He tried his best, succeeded thrice, to replace his deputy prime ministers, and met his match in the fourth. It is not for want of trying. He nominated Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi after he despatched Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim to what he thought was political oblivion, found him wanting soon enough and looked around for another. But UMNO, more than the National Front (BN), had had enough of it, and rallied around Pak Lah. The Old Man would not give way, and ambushed Pak Lah whenever and wherever he could. He hoped in hope a draft would allow him to continue beyond 31 October 2003. All it did was to ensure Pak Lah could only continue the skewed policies of the Old Man, with some cosmetic changes, and Malaysia needs major reconstructive surgery to right the wrongs of the Old Man's policies in office. Besides, Dato' Seri Anwar in jail has destroyed UMNO's and BN's raison d'etre. If he is not pardoned and released from jail with a free pardon, UMNO and BN march sure-footedly into oblivion.

Dr Mahathir has run out of options. He is sidelined. But he would not let go. So he praised Pak Lah, at the 50th "anniversary" of BN at Stadium Merdeka in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, 20 September 2003, as his successor. There is no power struggle, he thundered to a tepid crowd of a few thousands, most paid to be there. [The official media suggested 50,000, the Star 30,000; remove the zeros and add the two figures and you would be about right.] He would step down on 31 October, and there is a successor. And make no mistake: BN policies would be continued. The UMNO president rarely mentioned UMNO, and praised instead its poodle, the BN, in such absurd language, that one realised it was an election speech to non-Malays to rally around the BN flag. UMNO, with the Malay ground moving away from it, wants the Chinese vote badly. So, the BN anniversary was suddenly sprung on Malaysians. All we saw of his anniversary was the cryptic signs about it. Many wondered what it was. Given that UMNO and BN leaders have ignored the BN anniversaries, this is pardonable. The BN did not celebrate the anniversaries of its first, second, third and fourth decades. But for Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, it would not have its fifth either.

The power struggle is more vicious now than ever. The BN - and UMNO - is split so many ways that even a strong leader could only patch it up so long as the former deputy prime minister remains in jail. He was destroyed politically because he dared to challenge Dr Mahathir as UMNO president and Malaysian Prime Minister. Dr Mahathir in pique sacked him as deputy prime minister and UMNO deputy president without regard to the legality of it, treated worse than a common criminal and a near cripple today that his political career is probably past him. But the BN's and UMNO's political difficulties rose only since his dismissal in 1998. Dr Mahathir believes Dato' Seri Anwar - or Pak Sheikh, as his followers and supporters address him - is a spent force. Perhaps he is, but so long as Pak Sheikh's current address remains Sungei Buloh jail, BN and UMNO is.

All it needs to upset the BN and UMNO is a challenger for the UMNO presidency next year to release Pak Sheikh from jail with a free pardon to defeat Pak Lah. Dr Mahathir thinks not mentioning Pak Sheikh would consign him to oblivion. He did for five years and failed. His speech yesterday would have had an impact if he had at least mentioned Pak Sheikh. But he could not. He has painted himself into a corner. Mentioning him now would damage him more. Especially when Pak Lah is not about to. Indeed, his boys in Penang work hard to cut him down to size, with a special effort to wrest the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constitutency he once held and which wife, Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the president of Parti Keadilan Nasional, now does, in the General Election.

The BN's show of superficial unity is more to convice the member parties than Malaysians of a future under UMNO. A year ago, both the MCA and Gerakan considered jumping ship if UMNO lost ground. Indirect feelers were made. With both parties split as they are, that should not be ruled out in the future. Let us face it. UMNO is the linchpin of BN. If it is weak - it is, whatever its leaders say - it cannot lead. Far serious is that neither has strengthened themselves over the years. The Lord Action dictum -- power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely - has its proof in UMNO and BN. When that is compounded by misreading the Malay mind, UMNO is a fish out of water, and so BN.

UMNO now needs BN, and rushes to strengthen it. But the BN is run by self-serving leaders in the UMNO mould who believe the members are there to vote them into office in perpetuity and not demand their rights. It cannot be reformed like UMNO without major reconstructive surgery. That must begin at the head, and the head would not allow it. It was clear enough at the BN's anniversary yesterday. It was low key. The newspapers did not highlight it, and most were unaware of it until they listened to the news yesterday or read the newspapers this morning. Curiously, there was no public response to the gathering. At least the newspapers did not report it. Yet we are told people rushed in from all over the country to attend it. The reports this morning was all of the UMNO president patting the UMNO deputy president on his back. BN leaders of an anniversary they wanted were but bit players in a third-rate drama.

If the BN anniversary provide a clue to anything, it was that it goes to the General Election hopelessly divided - the Sabah BN and UMNO difficulties on why it could not hold an election this month was an early warning - but it does not faze Dr Mahathir. The BN will be returned to power in Kelantan and Trengganu, and massive majorities elsewhere. The new Prime Minister is Pak Lah, who would continue with BN's policies. But is that not the problem with BN now? The cronyism, the corruption, the misuse of power, the arrogance, the belief that Parliament is irrelevant, living beyond the country's means - the hall marks of the Mahathir governance - we are now promised, would continue under Pak Lah. This is why Pak Lah's hold as Prime Minister is so slippery. If he is challenged at the UMNO general assembly next year - he could well be - he may have to consider retirement.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my