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The BN attacks the Opposition to shoot itself in the foot as it considers early elections

IT WAS A BRILLIANT SETUP. This time the National Front (BN) would show how rascally PAS MPs are. It did not succeed now as well. Each time it has PAS in its sights and attacks, it is not PAS but BN which is wounded. This time PAS would not get away, the BN strategists insisted. The accidental BN MP for Pendang, Dato' Osman Abdul, is all but certain he could not be re-elected in the coming general elections against a PAS candidate. PAS is so well-entrenched that he believes PAS could capture the state. So he does nothing to lose if he made a fool of himself. So he asked a question in Parliament on 24 September 2003 which BN thought would tie PAS in knots: Would the Prime Minister reveal how many MPs claimed expenses more than RM10,000. The parliamentary secretary in the Prime Minister's Department, Dato' Noh Omar, decided he would not answer it but focus his attention on one PAS MP, Mr Arpandi Mohamed, who had claimed between RM11,000 and RM12,000 a month for 18 months. It was reported as if he had done something wrong. The BN scented blood. And called in the Anti-Corruption Agency to investigate. The ACA, never missing a chance to reveal its toothless impotence, began its investigations. That it did is linked to with top-level discussions this weekend if general election should be held in December.

The BN government revealed a list of 14 MPs - seven BN, four PAS, two KeADILan, one DAP - who had claimed more than RM10,000 in a month in the past 18 months. The MPs expenses are approved by the Parliament secretary. He did not find anything wrong with the claims. Yet he did imply Mr Arpandi had something to hide. The ACA should begin its investigation in the offices of the Parliament Secretary, whose office approves and pays the claims. If the claims were too high, it could have stopped payment. It did not. The Members of Parliament Act,1980, and its regulations show how much MPs can claim. It is not even hinted that Mr Årpandi had done anything wrong. Now he threatens to sue any who defames him over his expenses. If the claims are allowed under the Act, that it is excessive is not cause for public odium and contempt. Morality does not come in. But it has - not from PAS but from BN.

The seven BN MPs are horrified their constituents would look upon them as scroungers. They deem it unfair that they would be held to public odium and contempt. What would their constituents think? That these upright members of society are not beyond a little hanky panky? God forbid! That only the Opposition would stoop to. They are upset the BN government called in the ACA before the BN Backbenchers' Club (BBC) could clear the confusion. One BN MP said the BN government action was unfair. It made the people suspicious. "The people do not know how the procedure works," he said. He knew it when the BN government singled out Mr Arpandi. But that was all right. He is from the Opposition, and there to be at the butt of all BN harrassment in Parliament. If the BN MPs are so concerned about it, why did they not challenge the official statement, or ask for further particulars in the House. They did nothing of that. It is the PAS MP who swings. Let him be. And today they pay the price.

The BN cannot harp on the PAS MP's claims. But when MPs vote allowances for themselves, they are over-generous. It is the BN, with its absolute control over Parliament. often rush this through without adequate debate or questioning. Parliament is still in BN's hold, but the Opposition has increased its share of seats quietly, gradually and confidently since 1990, and now scent victory within the next three general elections. The Malay vote is not automatically with BN anymore. If the BN is not careful, it would lose the Malay constituency for ever. PAS built its constituency in the heavily Malay-dominated states of Kelantan, Trengganu, Perlis and Kedah. It has now gathered strength in the other states as well, and gains in popularity as BN's UMNO loses ground. Hence this constant needling of PAS. That alone is not enough. It has to meet PAS on the ground. That it would not. Nor would it argue its case before the voters. Which PAS does in full measure.

The reasons for this are not hard to seek. The BN went into rigor mortis when UMNO sacked its deputy president in 1988 and he would not go quietly. He singlehandedly damaged the BN's confidence and it has to look over its shoulder before it would do anything. PAS took advantage of it and increased its popularity. The BN is clueless, lacks direction, rests on its laurels, a doddering elephant which behaves as a wounded but toothless lion but not knowing how to command respect and support. The MPs' expenses was a wrong issue, As it turns out. Mr Arpandi would issue libel writs if the matter is raised in public to defame him. The issue is dead. It is much ado about nothing. After all, if BN decided to throw caution to the winds, and decide to go on an electoral rampage, it would still be caught. How could it justify the RM1 billion that the Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, has cost the Treasury in his frequent forays overseas? And equally outrageous sums claimed by cabinet ministers and mentris besar. And the BN government would not want to reveal in court the profligacy of its cabinet ministers and members of the government.

Meanwhile, PAS forces BN to shoot itself in the foot. As when the deputy information minister, Senator Zainuddin Maidin, lost his temper at a PAS question in Parliament if Dato' Abdul Malek Mydin, has said his Islamic prayers during his successfully swam the English Channel. He should have just ignored it, but showed he could also blink against his will. PAS is better at tripping the BN and UMNO ministers than the other way around. The consequent uproar in the House helps PAS not BN. And it has an election issue - how the deputy information minister lost his cool when asked a question about Islam - and UMNO has not. What happened in Parliament is a microcosm of what happens in the Malay heartland day in, day out.

How did the BN misjudge itself? On the eve of the opening of Parliament, the Prime Minister briefs the BN MPs on what to expect. Once, it was also to instruct the MPs to be on their guard, and raise what must be raised, and be on their toes during the sessions. Now it is to hear the Prime Minister's oration, have a good meal, and nothing else. If any MP had the temerity to ask questions like, in this instance, if the expenses issue might not boomerang on it, he would be a marked man. Which is why the BN MPs whine to the press. They cannot raise it with their party leaders or the BN whip - they would not give the time of day to an MP under his control. Do not these people know that their only role is to raise their hands to support whatever the BN proposes? If that is not clear, what happened to the two MCA state assemblymen in Penang who abstained on a proposal by the DAP would have made it doubly so.

The BN MPs' nervousness is real. The BN still plans for general elections before the year end. Two UMNO MPs told me they are worried about it, swears a decision could be as early as this weekend. The BN leaders think if it is held next year, it would be in a time of economic recession or worse. All indicators, despite the Budget's optimism, reveal a mess that could only get worse. The pressure is on, from the BN MPs, to have it earlier than later. The cabinet ministers are as worried. The likeliest date for an election is now December. A decision on this would be taken this weekend. But can it go to the polls with the BN and even UMNO so split. An election in December could catch the Opposition offguard. Is that enough if the BN and UMNO are so split? Could the Prime Minister risk calling for elections in December, even if he is not Prime Minister, since he would be held liable for any setbacks. This would not save his successor, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, either. And throw open the UMNO succession and who would be Prime Minister after the UMNO election next year. As Dr Mahathir discovered in Sabah, when he wanted state elections there - and in September - before general elections in the rest of the states and for Parliament, that internal splits damages it more than Opposition disunity and general unpreparedness. And a superficial BN unity is not enough to paper the cracks within it and its component members.

M.G.G. Pillai
mggpillai@yahoo.com