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Pak Lah convenes a secret meeting - and shows how divided UMNO is

WHEN DATO' HUSSEIN ONN STEPPED DOWN as Prime Minister in 1981, he made his successor, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, promise he would appoint as his deputy prime minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Dr Mahathir agreed, then ignored it, insisted on a contest, and backed, by word and deed, Dato' (now Tan Sri) Musa Hitam, the first of his four deputy prime ministers. This laid the ground for UMNO's subsequent travails. Tengku Razaleigh challenged Dato' Musa again for the deputy presidency in 1984, and Dr Mahathir in 1987 for the UMNO presidency. He won in 1987 but was robbed of victory by Dr Mahathir's political skulduggery. Several conspirators, whom UMNO later abandoned and are now with Tengku Razaleigh, described how it was done. Dr Mahathir realised, in 1987, that if Tengku Razaleigh is not stopped, he would be UMNO president and Malaysian prime minister in 1990. So he plotted the banning of UMNO, formed a new UMNO from which he excluded all he considered a threat. That now threatens UMNO, and the succession is far from certain.

As Tun Hussein, as he later became, so Dr Mahathir. He wants his successor, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to appoint the defence minister and UMNO vice president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, as his deputy prime minister. Pak Lah would rather he be another UMNO vice-president and the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. In any case, he would only after he is prime minister. Pak Lah is caught in an untenable cul-de-sac. If he appoints Dato' Seri Najib, he loses the support of Johore UMNO, without which his future in politics is shortlived. If he does not, he earns the enmity of Dr Mahathir. Besides those around him would rather he ignored Dato' Seri Najib. This makes him seem indecisive, deflecting any question about his deputy and is firm only after a nod from Dr Mahathir. Dato' Seri Najib, if he wants a future in politics, must be the next deputy prime minister. He is only 51 but he has been in UMNO politics and in Parliament and state assembly since 1976, after his father, Malaysia's second prime minister, died, and longer than even Pak Lah, in Parliament only since 1978.

This uncertainty goads the Pak Lah and Najib factions into self-inflicting action. If Dato' Seri Najib is not appointed deputy prime minister, his supporters want him to challenge Pak Lah for the UMNO presidency in 2004. Dr Mahathir does not want a challenge for the top posts, but neither he nor anyone can make it stick against a determined challenger. Dr Mahathir knows it only too well. His then-protege, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, defied Dr Mahathir in 1993 to be nominated in a landslide that the then deputy prime minister, Mr (later Tun) Abdul Ghafar Baba resigned. The Najib faction is well-placed to challenge Pak Lah. It has the best political machine in UMNO. What holds against him is his indecisiveness, and prone to change loyalties at the last possible moment. In the 1990s, he was all set to cross from UMNO to Tengku Razaleigh's UMNO-clone, Semangat '46, but on stage for the occasion, decided not to. For all that, if he does challenge Pak Lah in June, it is the latter who would have sleepless nights.

This is why a secret meeting took place at the Awana Resort, midway to Genting Highlands, in the second week of September. All were curiously from the UMNO Team B, which was later to be Semangat '46. That it was held at all reveals Pak Lah's insecurities. He is fearful of a Najib bandwagon, and by this meeting revealed to be weaker than he is thought to be. One man at the meeting stood out like a sore thumb: Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Why he was there is unclear, unless Pak Lah wanted his help to deflect Dato' Seri Najib. Pak Lah was there, of course. So were the former deputy prime minister and Pak Lah's mentor, Tan Sri Musa Hitam; Dato' Seri Rais Yatim, who if rumours be true, is the home minister under Pak Lah; Tengku Azlan ibni almarhum Sultan Abu Bakar, the brother of the Sultan of Pahang (there presumably to show the Palace is wary of Dato' Seri Najib); Pak Lah's financial and political advisor, Dato' Khalimullah Hassan, and a representative of the UMNO secretary-general, Tan Sri Khalil Yaakob. After the day's discussion, Pak Lah and Tengku Razaleigh returned; the others stayed on to conspire and for golf.

News of this sent shivers down the Najib camp. Dato' Seri Najib complained to Dr Mahathir when both were in New York shortly after for the UMNO general assembly. But neither could do anything about it. The Awana meeting showed how divided UMNO is, with neither faction prepared to challenge the other in the open, and revealed only each's uncertainties. On the face of it, Dato' Seri Najib is still ahead if Pak Lah is challenged. Aligned to him are mentris besars Dato' Seri Tajol Rosli Ghazali of Perak, Dato' Seri Ali Rustam of Malacca, Dato' Seri Adnan Yaakob of Pahang; Puteri UMNO; the second finance minister, Dato' Jamaluddin Jarjis; the Trengganu UMNO deputy chief, Dato' Idris Jusoh. UMNO Youth is split in its support, with its head and Dato' Seri Najib's first cousin - their mothers are sisters - Dato' Hishamuddin Hussein, not with him. But he is unsure if this support would remain if, as is the norm, extrajudicial, political threats and worse are brought to bear on them. Dato' Seri Najib realises how vulnerable he is. An unconfirmed rumour mentions politically damaging proof in a CD that could ruin him if he persists in his challenge.

Dr Mahathir is impotent in his rage. The one man who could save him is beyond his reach. Dr Mahathir's splitting of UMNO could not have happened but for Dato' Seri Anwar. It was he who got the support which allowed Dr Mahathir to succeed. His strategic and tactical brilliance, aided by a devoted band of supporters, most of whom now back Tengku Razaleigh, was what kept the Mahathir UMNO together. UMNO began to disintegrate in the cultural clash between Dr Mahathir and the Malay community in how Dato' Seri Anwar was destroyed, and pays its price now. In his interview with the local newspapers, Dr Mahathir spins yet another yarn on why Dato' Seri Anwar was sacked, jailed and battered by the Inspector-General of Police no less. It is an old canard few now believe. Unless Pak Lah and Dato' Seri Najib announce how they would repair this cultural hurt, they and UMNO are, in the hallowed words of Mr Justice Augustine Paul, "not relevant".

Pak Lah is not home clear. UMNO advisors have told him general elections must be this year: the economic and financial indicators, despite the Budget statements to the contrary, are so bad that if elections are held in April or beyond, there is hell to pay. It could be as early as December. The Opposition does not believe it possible. But springing the elections on it does not ensure a clean sweep. UMNO is in a bind in the Malay states of Kelantan, Trengganu, Perlis and Kedah. If UMNO is returned in fewer Malay constituencies than in 1999 or loses ground in the state assemblies, an UMNO ground could revolt against Pak Lah and UMNO, and seek one outside the periphery to lead it. However inconceivable that is, it cannot be ruled out. Especially if the still untapped but quiescent Anwar faction in UMNO should flex its muscles. Pak Lah and Dato' Seri Najib knows this only too well.

[This is my column in the latest issue of Harakah, the PAS organ, which is published today, 07 October 2003]

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com