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Pak Lah in the hot seat

THE STORY MAKING THE ROUNDS has the ring of truth: The outgoing Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed, wanted his successor, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, and the defence minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, to agree to two conditions: that Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim should remain in prison until he completes his sentence, and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah should not be allowed to move up the UMNO and BN ladder. Dato' Seri Najib should not have been there since he is not yet the deputy prime minister. Rumours are embellished in the repeating. But when this is linked to another - that Pak Lah was denied his security briefing until he agreed to appoint him as his deputy - and Dr Mahathir's apparent refusal to leave his office until the last possible moment, there is more to this than is revealed. Pak Lah has his own reasons to keep Dato' Seri Anwar in prison: both are from Penang, and an Anwar out of prison, crippled as he is, is a dangerous man indeed. Look at the political trouble he causes from his prison cell in Sungei Buloh.

If Pak Lah is not careful or astute, he would have a stressful term in office. He started his leadership well, promising a caring society and addressing the social development that Dr Mahathir ignored in his rush to industrialise Malaysia by 2020, and changes to the system that would return Malaysia where possible to status quo ante Mahathir. He is not Dr Mahathir, and he would chart a different and softer course. But it would not be an easy ride. He is the first Prime Minister who is not a member of UMNO at its formation in 1946. He represents a major shift in Malaysian politics. He would have to fight his way since he does not have the natural support from at the creation. He is not yet annointed, and he would and is challenged at every turn. A slip between now and the UMNO general assembly would be costly indeed.

Too many stumbling blocks are strewn in his path - caused by his doing, by Dr Mahathir, generational doubts, potential challengers, UMNO's built-in self-destructive infighting, UMNO's refusal to change, Dato' Seri Anwar amongst others. Whatever else Dr Mahathir achieved in his more than two decades in office, he ignored UMNO and the state, which driftged without leadership and direction, and elavatged himself to a demi-god. He personalised his rule to a degree that Pak Lah cannot follow, and if Pak Lah does not move swiftly to reverse this, and bring UMNO back to relevance, trouble lies ahead. He has to hit the ground running, and show he is a far more forceful leader than he is presumed to be. While the policies on the surfaces are movements in the right decision, the question that begs an answer is his role when Dr Mahathir made a mess of it all. Dr Mahathir came to office in 1981 with similar great promise, but he dismantled all he promised to consolidate himself in office and power.

The UMNO he heads is not the UMNO of 1946; that was made illegal, as Dr Mahathir wanted, so he could keep out Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah out. Why so is clear. In 1987, Tengku Razaleigh challenged Dr Mahathir for the UMNO presidency. He would have won the contest but skullduggery was at work, a fortuitious blackout during the counting enabled a switching of ballot papers, and when lights were restored, enabled Dr Mahathir to be returned with a wafer-thin majority. If UMNO had not been made illegal, Tengku Razaleigh would have challenged him again, and this time Dr Mahathir would have lost. The new UMNO therefore excluded him. He is now in UMNO but is in the doldrums. Much water has flowed under the bridge since. The Tengku builds his network relentlessly out of the public eye, has attracted to his side almost all the Mahathir plotters who helped defeat him in 1987. He refuses to commit, insists he has no political ambition, bout not refuse a draft. Would he be drafted? He looks at and smiles. But he has a devoted team of volunteers working around the clock so that should it happen, he is ready.

Few give him a chance. He has disappeared from the political radar screen. Few heard of him after he left the cabinet in 1987, But he represents the traditional Malay cultural element with its feudal overtones the Malays are comfortable with. With UMNO's lurch into an Islamic state, the cultural Malay is all but leaderless. He is a natural to lead them. He has kept out of the public eye and so it is difficult to gauge what support he has. But it is clear he is the best organised UMNO leader, and he attracts the Anwar crowd with his insistence that his jailing has split the Malay community beyond repair, and that must first be set right. The UMNO leaders disagree. But even if UMNO would not agree, Tengku Razaleigh represents the alternate view in UMNO especially in its lurch towards an Islamic state. Whether that is enough to take on UMNO - if he decides to - is another matter.

Pak Lah faces his first test with his deputy prime minister. His natural choice is the domestic trade and consumer affairs minister, Tan Sri Muhiyuddin Yassin. This would give him the solid Johore support he needs to ward off any challenge at the UMNO general assembly in June 2004. Dr Mahathir appears to have twisted his arm to accept Dato' Seri Najib instead. Pak Lah could well not appoint either until after the general election, which could be before the UMNO general assembly. But he must first ensure he could restrict PAS to Kelantan and Trengganu, and win comfortably in the other states in the general election. That is not easy. A recent survey done in some depth has the National Front (BN) defeated in Perlis and Kedah state assembly elections, and in danger in Pahang and Selangor. The challenge is from PAS, but it is buttressed by anger over how Dato' Seri Anwar has been treated. If, on the other hand, he were to confound his critics, and does far better than anyone expected, he could return in triumph at the UMNO election.

But he has to hit the ground running - which he in his first week shows no public signs of - and meet his critics head on. He would have to travel around the country frequently and convince the voters that he means what he says. Dr Mahathir ignored the country. I doubt if he had ever visited a rural development scheme or oil palm scheme. He spent his last few months travelling around the world than prepare for the handover and making his peace with the villagers he studiously ignored. He was bored with details, and let underlings handle them. In UMNO, they did not. And Pak Lah must now pay the price. He must turn this around, if he hopes for a full term in office. There is a gtendency for UMNO and civil servants to tell the Prime Minister and president only what he wants to hear. That culture is fairly ingrained. So he gets a jaundiced and incorrect view of the reality.

The UMNO president does not welcome or allow debate. He wants total control, and questioning his views is treachery. At one time it was not. The president - Dato' Sir Onn Jaffar, Tengku Abdul Rahman, Tun Abdul Razak, Tun Hussein Onn - consulted their critics and considered their views. Dato' Sir Onn left when that conflicted with his. Under Dr Mahathir, he did not, and disallowed any other view than his. That culture has stuck. Laws and regulations are passed only to be recalled and amended because consultations were excluded in its framing. Pak Lah deserves a chance to show his mettle. He should not be circuited from office because of the past. But if he is not careful, it could. More important, UMNO is in the midst of an internal convulsion. The events of 1987 would face an accounting in the first decade of the 21st century. UMNO was declared illegal and a Mahathir UMNO took its place but not with any strategic or tactical intent but so Dr Mahathir could stay on in office. Now that he is no more in office, the more important question is if this Mahathir UMNO is still relevant to the Malay. Pak Lah must prove it is. Can he?

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com