MGG Pillai Commentary View

<< Previous || Next >>

Pak Lah faces General Election as head of a fracturing coalition

THE GENERAL ELECTION IS AROUND the corner. Make no mistake about it. The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, cancels his attendance at the G-15 summit in Caracas, where the host, President Hugo Chavaez, faces a full-blown campaign to force him to step down. He is right to do that if there is the slightest doubt for his safety. But few believe it is why. The New Straits Times, in a front page story about it, says it fuels "further speculation" of an imminent general election. All cabinet ministers overseas are ordered to return to Kuala Lumpur by 29 February. A planned meeting of Sabah BN MPs and state assemblymen in Kota Kinabalu on 03 March is cancelled: they should instead concentrate on their constitutencies. The BN seat allocation committee discuss seat allocation its its member parties. The MCA has released its lists of do's and don't's for its elected representatives, those selected must be debt-free. This is already an article of faith in how the MCA runs its affairs that all, except those who have retired or stepped down, would pass the test, and we are promised there would be few new faces. The 2002 MCA peace plan to bridge the divide between its two mutually antagonistic factions failed abysmally, but those in charge insist that is an unacceptable libel. But is it not an accepted fact of political life in Malaysia that what is, is what we are told, not what is?

The People's Progressive Party (PPP) stirs up a mini crisis when its president, Dato' M. Kayveas, claims the BN secretary-general, Tan Sri Khalil Yaakob, offered him the new parliamentary constituency of Cameron Highlands. This is promptly denied. "I never promised anyone any seat," he said. The BN should be quaking in its boots by now: if the PPP did not get the Cameron Highlands seat, Dato' Kayveas warns, his party members would not campaign for whoever is chosen. Dato' Kayveas is an honorable man. He would not lie, but what he said is not the truth either. It was not Tan Sri Khalil who made the offer but the third member of the election committee who is possibly the most powerful man in the country after Pak Lah. The BN team offered the PPP one state constituency and two Senators. As Dato' Kayveas walked away, he was accosted by the third man who offered him Cameron Highlands. But the man cannot be named or compromised, so he prepares the ground to blame some one if he does not get it, and sideline him if he does.

The BN is a coalition of 14 political parties under UMNO's leadership. Its election committee is drawn from UMNO and the member parties: this time it consisists of three UMNO officials wearing BN hats: Tan Sri Khalil Yaakob, the BN secretary-general, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, the BN deputy president, curiously, both from Pahang, and the BN's president's UMNO representative. There is a reason why this committee is UMNO dominated. Pak Lah has yet to meet the MCA president, Dato' Seri Ong Ka Ting, for one-on-one talks over lunch or dinner. It is not for want of trying. He has had similar meetings with an MCA vice-president. Pak Lah does not forget a slight. During the MCA crisis in 2002, an arrogant Dato' Seri Ong ensured that aplenty. There is a concerted effort in Johore to reduce the electoral chances of the one man in the Team B faction, the health minister, Dato' Chua Jui Meng, whose presence puts Dato' Ong's leadership in question. Similarly, the MIC president, Dato' Seri S. Samy Vellu, insists on holding on to his cabinet and party position at any cost, even after knowing that Pak Lah thinks it time he stepped down in favour of his deputy president, Dato' S. Subramaniam. Pak Lah is close to Dato' Subramaniam; it is his threat to offer the Indian cabinet seat to Dato' Kayveas that led the former MAS airline pilot to believe that he indeed does lead the Indian community.

The main Chinese parties in BN - the MCA and the Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia - have announced plans to merge, to present a united face to the Malaysian electorate. No one believes it can work. The MCA wants it so it can recapture the Penang state chief ministership it lost to the Gerakan in 1969. The MCA realises that for all its influence in the centre and in the state, it does not have the gravitas of the Gerakan, which controls the Penang state government. With Pak Lah believing its president, Dato' Seri Lim Kheng Yaik, has overstayed - and Dato' Seri Lim, is not prepared to step down just yet for like in UMNO, MCA, MIC, the Gerakan president does not want his deputy to succeed him. Pak Lah would have none of that. They have overstayed, and it is time they left. This promise of joint MCA-Gerakan functions fractured from the start: a half-hearted attempt in Penang notwithstanding, the MCA and Gerakan held their Chinese New Year open houses at their respective headquarters and about the same time so that leaders from one could not possible be at the other. UMNO's fear of a strong Chinese party is real: the more so when the two leaders are not accepted in the Pak Lah camp. Is this why, I wonder, Dr Lim frequently points to Tun Mahathir's picture in his office, and refers him as "my boss"?

But this conflict exists in UMNO also at the top. Pak Lah has no time for his deputy, Dato' Seri Najib, who was forced upon him in a political sleight of hand by the former UMNO president, Tun Mahathir Mohamed. The two men cannot stand the sight of each other; their wives even more so. There is therefore a design in his selection of the BN selection committee: Two Pahang men beholden to each other, and tempered with an unelected man who has more power in it than the two combined; but if anything should go wrong - and much can 'twixt the cup and the lip - they would be blamed. There is as strong an UMNO pressure in Pahang against Dato' Seri Najib as there is MCA pressure in Johore against Dato' Seri Chua. A similar confrontation is in place in Sabah and Sarawak. In Sarawak, the BN coalition is in shambles after its coalition partners wanted its leader, Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, to step down and he would not. Two coalition partners, Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak and Sarawak National Party, are out of it over leadership squabbles that is the norm in the Peninsular. In Sabah, the state BN is in shambles, with its leaders, aligned to different political leaders, fight their fratricide battles within, but with the added danger of a realignment of political forces that could deny UMNO a place in the government.

But all this is cold comfort for the Opposition. An enemy, political or otherwise, is at his most destructive when he has nothing to hope for. We see signs of that in present day Malaysia. The BN, rotten to the core, is still a formidable opponent. It still has aces up its sleeve. What unnerves it is the progressive alienation of the Malay heartland. PAS, for instance, concentrates its guns on Kedah and, to a lesser extent, Perlis, has made inroads in the two states; if the Gods smile their way, they could win either or both. But it is an uphill battle nevertheless. Indeed, Kedah is its better bet, but it is not certain it could succeed. What gives it the confidence is that the BN machinery is as weak to be non-existent. But for the voter to throw out the incumbent government and even the sitting representatives requires a mind shift many are prepared not even to think about it. I do not see this mind shift except at a narrow local level, and in pockets. The BN is well aware of this. This is why it is as equally confident. There would be upsets, of course, but that it can live with. The best the Opposition can hope for in this round is to build the ground for an onslaught in the general election after this. Any other result would indicate the ground is angrier than it is given credit for. And should be counted a success.

[This is my column in the latest issue of Harakah, the PAS organ, out today, 24 February 2004]

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com