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Parliament, and all state assemblies but Sarawak, is dissolved

PARLIAMENT IS DISSOLVED, AS are all state assemblies but Sarawak's Council Negri. The National Front (BN) government had played a cat-and-mouse game with itself on when it would be called since Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi became Prime Minister. The Opposition this time read the signs early and began preparations for general election in January, earlier than BN. So much so that it surprised UMNO leaders when Parliament was dissolved. The Election Commission would meet soon to decide on the polling day. The originally widely believed date of 21 March is out: on that day the second leg of the F-1 motor racing season is held in Kuala Lumpur. It would be a few days or so after that. It is Pak Lah's first general election since he became prime minister in November. He needs to do well to strengthen his chances, and cut out all opposition, when UMNO chooses its president at its annual general assembly in June.

The BN has a severe problem in Sarawak. The state BN is opposed to the chief minister, Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, and could not be persuaded to work with him for one more term. Kuala Lumpur agrees with this, and to make that clear to Tan Sri Taib, the Anti-Corruption Agency called on him. There were too many odds and ends to tie up, and so it was decided not to have the Council Negri elections now. For Parliament, two state parties, the Sarawak National Party (SNAP) and its offshot, the Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS), are both suspended from the coalition, and would be out of the elections. So, SNAP has decided to field candidates against the BN team. They would have for the Council Negeri if elections were called for it as well. In Sabah, matters are a little better but not by much. The state BN is badly divided, as is the state UMNO. But the Opposition is not well organised, as in the rest of the country, and that gives BN a measure of hope.

So it does not surprise that panic set in in the runup to the election. The BN is a top-down political party, with its president, who is also the UMNO president, dictating its focus. Pak Lah though could not hold his own. So he had to call for general election as soon as possible, while the country is still enamoured of him as a leader, and before the inherent problems within his administration revealed itself. The negotiations for the seats did not go down well. He finally had to call a halt to it, and demand all obey. The People's Progressive Party (PPP) leader, Dato' M. Kayveas, had nursed the new constituency of Cameron Highlands in Pahang, but it went to the MIC instead; earlier, it was earmarked for the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, whose Pekan constituency revealed too many shortcomings that he seriously considered shifting to another constituency. In the end, he stays where he is. Dato' Kayveas is given the Malay constituency of Bukit Gantang in the Malay heartland of Perak for no reason than that he threatened to pull the revitalised PPP out of BN if not.

The Opposition had expected the disssolution, although the Election Commission, after its chairman said in an interview that a candidate would be barred from the polls only if his conviction has not completed its appeal process, barred three Opposition leaders, who were convicted but had expected to contest, pending their appeals. It has a tough fight ahead, for the main party, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), could not get an Opposition coalition to challenge BN; the DAP stayed out. This infighting could cost it seats. It has set its eyes on Kedah, but the best it can hope, barring a miracle, is to shake up the UMNO-held constituencies this time, and capture the state in 2009. For this election, the DAP has agreed to come to an informal coalition, but this could be too little too late. But this election would see a battle royale for control of the Malay constituencies between UMNO and PAS.

Pak Lah kept to the last the distribution of the constituencies, and it was almost too late. This is not new. It happens at every election, though his predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, could decide and make it stick. Pak Lah is still finding his ground. Some signs of warlordism amongst the state UMNO leaders are evident, and he has to weave through them cautiously. Pak Lah has to act decisively this time, but he cannot afford to drop too many old timers, with their considerable hold on the constituencies. The coalition members are themselves split, and let Pak Lah take the rap to drop those they do not want. This gives the UMNO president too much power over the candidates, and he uses it with firmness. Tun Mahathir did, and Pak Lah does. But his victory could be pyrrhic if he does not ensure that young MPs are elected. There is one report that 40 per cent of BN candidates would be new. That would be a step forward if Pak Lah could prevent those dropped from revolt. He is unsure of it, which is why he called on all those dropped to campaign as hard for victory. Such good intentions are laudable, but could it work in the BN?

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com