MGG Pillai Commentary View

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The Opposition and its travails

WHAT THE GENERAL ELECTION 2004 shows starkly that if the Opposition wants to challenge the National Front (BN) head on, it must change its strategy and tactics, and prepare for the 2009 elections within months of 21 March. What it does not, with few exceptions, is to think about it when the rumours fly. It must have a coalition in which all the major races are represented, with a clearly-defined minimum programme of action, and its candidates chosen early for the constituencies, so that they could begin work. The constituents know who could represent them. Now, it is too often a shot in the dark, with both BN and Opposition candidates chosen at the last possible moment and often not from the area. The election becomes a form, with the important interaction between elected representative and voter all but non-existent. Ask anyone who his representative is, and he would often stare blankly at you. I have lived in the same flat for more than 30 years, and voted in every election during that time, but in the last three general elections, I have not once met the MP making his rounds.

If the Opposition does not make that effort, as the BN does not, it would give democratic institutions a bad name. Politics is as far removed from the average citizen these days because he does not partake in it. He is told to shut up when he has a point of view, and if he persists, threatened with dire consequencies. The BN has made politics important only for the vote. The voter is then told that since it is given it the mandate, it should accept whatever it prescribes for him. In Parliament and state assembly, there is no debate. The state assemblies do not meet more than once or twice a year, so power is concentrated in the hands of the executive, who has carte blanche to do as he likes. The Opposition accepts it, for after the election, it retreats into its shell.

Even if there is no formal connexion, the elected representatives of the Opposition must meet regularly to decide on a common position. Only PAS, amongst the Opposition, do that, but it is an exclusive meeting, in that it is confined only to PAS representatives. The Opposition often wants to make grand gestures in challenging and knocking off key BN figures, when the aim should be to be elected first, and then put the government on its toes. While it assuages the ego, there is no point in high profile contests - like KeADILan's Ezam Noor's plan to challenge the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, at the latter's Pekan constituency. Parliamentary debates would be all the more relevant if both are in it.

But this is what happens when the Opposition decides the only way to dent the BN's strong hold is to defeat its leaders in the polls. But this is often done as a dare, or to garner headlines, or other non-political reason. There is more to political life than scoring political points like this. But if it is done as a consequence of a move to force the government into a corner, then it should not be done as haphazardly as it now is. In the 2004 General Election, although PAS oversees the Opposition coalition ad hoc, it faces too many intangibles: the DAP is not part of it, but it wants a no-contest agreement with KeADILan. There should be to prevent fracturing the Opposition vote but such arrangements would at best be tentative.

It is important for the Opposition to firm the coalition. For that, PAS, as the main and best organised, must, and does, take the lead. It has the resources, and the wherewithal, to do so. It leaders are pragmatic enough to accept that its march to an Islamic state is only possible with multiracial support. However, it looks at it, it does not have that. And it is prepared to concede its more strident religious points en route to its goal. The Opposition has no hope to govern if it cannot break away from the BN-dominated worldview, and present one that would challenge its very basis. It is unfortunate but true that the Opposition view is to second guess the BN. In other words, it accepts from the start that it cannot unseat the BN. It is this mindset that must first be erased before it can talk of forming the government.

Which is why I do believe that, as matters stand, the Opposition can barely dent the BN's two-third majority. Where it can cause an upset is if it captures one more state. Kedah is widely tipped. But that would be a fluke. It is touch and go, but in such instances, and unless there is an ingrained hostility to the BN government, it may not happen. What PAS did in 1999 was to make solid BN constituencies into marginal ones. And it hopes, this time around, it could force the BN out. It could, but then it may not. It has denied the BN its two-thirds majority in Kedah. This time around, even if it does not take the state, there would be little change. That process could be seen in Pahang and Selangor.

The states PAS controls - Kelantan and Trengganu - the BN has promised to defeat. It is easier said than done. Kelantan is firmly in PAS hands. So should Trengganu. The BN is sure PAS would be defeated. But that does look unlikely. The Opposition does not control its advance. It is Pak Lah who does. He needs a solid victory to strengthen his hold on UMNO before the party elections later this year. But he may not pull it off. For UMNO and BN has ignored Trengganu after it got only five of the 32 state assembly seats. And caused a political furore when it refused to hand over to the PAS-run Trengganu the Petronas royalties due to the state. That is now before the courts. But what makes it difficult for BN is that it hands the petroleum royalties, which it labels 'wang ehsan', to its state leader to distribute.

It is important for the Opposition to chart a new political course. For too long, it is kept at the mercy of the BN. But it has is a sense of purpose. That should be nurtured, and strengthened. It has over the years brought BN to its knees, not for its policies but by the BN underestimating the Opposition and then insisting that it is beyond challenge. It finds that to be untrue. It would retain its two-thirds majority in what could in the end be but a pyrrhic victory. Which is why where once the short campaign period is to inconvenience the Opposition, this time it is so the BN could coast through before its internal dysfunctions would become public.

But the Opposition is in finer form than it has ever been. It has a new lease of life. But it is still disorganised. It has not yet shown itself to be an active political grouping, but what it has done so far is enough to frighten the BN. The classes PAS conducts for election agents, the unified position it takes in Parliament and state assembly debates all reflect this new mood. Its MPs are well regarded in Parliament, the one who comes out for particular mention being Mr Husam Musa. One cabinet minister told me, and not in jest, that if UMNO has a dozen Husam Musas in its ranks, it could meet any challenges. The fact is it has, and more. But it does not know where to look.

What the Opposition needs to do, and urgently, is to fashion a political philosophy that is acceptable to all races. The BN did it well, but over the years, ignored it as it became too successful, and the leaders decided they were why the coalition exists, not the component parties and their leaders on the ground. It does not have it now. That is why it is so strong electorally and yet so frightened of challenge even by a discordant Opposition as we have now.

[I wrote this as an article for Harakah, the PAS organ, for its latest issue, out today, 08 March 2004.]

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com