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Pak Lah has a little difficulty about UMNO candidates in Johore and Pahang

THE PRIME MINISTER, DATO' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is caught up in the official myth-making of a National Front (BN) and UMNO so well-organised that it can rout all comers in an election. That it has more than its share of problems is ignored, and not allowed to surface. Threats and sinecures do help mollify the protesters, but not when election come. The old anger reasserts, and with a new leader at the helm, this is pushed to the limit. Pak Lah wants a united team, a better result than in 1999, a stronger showing in the Malay heartland, which it could not in the last general election. His predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, kept a tight ship, crushed all dissent with brutal force, but this only postponed the inevitable. Pak Lah is of a different mould, more conciliatory, and would rather, if he can, discuss the problem. But he succeeded Tun Mahathir only four months ago, giving him little or no chance to hold his ground.

He is cossetted between by the unstated but implied pressure on the one side from his predecessor, who is, in typical Malaysian political fashion, a non-person but unlike it wields considerable influence behind the scenes; and, on the other, the twin pressures of a resurgent PAS and the cultural miscalculation that stemmed from how his predecessor, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, was humiliated, against Malay feudal practice. Both are understated now, the BN in fact insists both are non-issues, though it is more afraid of PAS than of Dato' Seri Anwar. His first major problem is to remove Tun Mahathir's influence in UMNO, Parliament and the state assemblies. Many of those removed in this month's general election are to remove his influence. This has worked well, but in the states, he did not find it plain sailing at all. In Trengganu, UMNO division leaders and members not given a constituency contest walked out from its election office, in one case burning it down, leaving the party machinery in a lurch. In Perak, one UMNO division would not allow a BN component party leader to contest in what was always an UMNO seat. In two states, Johore and Pahang, the list was released at the last possible moment, but not after high drama.

The BN and UMNO in Pahang woke up too late to find PAS well organised, and a threat. It is the home state of the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak. He faces a tough re-election campaign in his Pekan constituency, his opponent a retired well-regarded brigadier-general in his 70s. In 1999, he squeaked through with a 241 vote majority. It is touch-and-go, admits those around him, and made worse with two military camps with 4,000 voters, and a well-organised PAS electoral machine. PAS is fielding 30 candidates for the state assembly, almost all of whom well-educated or professionals. UMNO is disastrously divided in the state, the mentri besar, Dato' Seri Adnan Yaakob, rides rough shod over the UMNO machine that he is resented, and a few state assemblymen dropped have switched their allegience to PAS. The BN and UMNO woke up too late to find that they have to play second fiddle to PAS. What frightens is PAS's campaign is not to take the state now but to disorient UMNO further so that it would fall into its lap without effect in 2009.

In Johore, the once-sold UMNO state is broken up into spheres of influence, and controlled by its strong men or warlords. This is what happens when the centre is weak. The Sultan would not accept a new mentri besar, and this was resolved only with a last minute audience by Pak Lah with him. The retired BN secretary-general, Tan Sri Mohamed Rahmat, wants his son to replace him in his Pulai parliamemntary constituency. In 1999, he would have had his wish. This time, many in the UMNO heirarchy objected. The selection of seats is so bitter that it has all but split the one-vaunted unity in BN. What makes this worrying in Kuala Lumpur is Pak Lah's belief that if the BN sweeps Sabah, Sarawak and Johore, it could easily retain the two-thirds majority and, incidentally, make Pak Lah's political position secure in the UMNO general assembly in June. To do that, the Anwar issue must also be addressed. Another is UMNO's position on an Islamic state must be clarified. It is an election issue this time, but the BN is unclear about it, even if some in UMNO are.

This is why the BN's selection of its candidates could not be released until the last possible minute. Instead of a full final list, each component party released its own, making for a mixed bag, while the Opposition released one complete list, with the problems limited to a few seats, and mostly between DAP and KeADILan. And that is ironed out soon enough. The BN believes that with a two-thirds majority the internal problems would be resolved. They would not. They would fester, if no attempt is made to right them. The BN must reorganise itself to make the component parties more responsive to the ground, and allow the ground consulted more often so it would not feel left out. For what BN and UMNO faces now is that the old political slogans and beliefs have to be drastically reoriented to bring in the new voter, in his teens, who has nothing in common with the tired old ideas which BN holds dear, but which has lost all relevance. Individual UMNO leaders accept this need, but they would not speak out. They leave it to the UMNO president to sort that out.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com