MGG Pillai Commentary View

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The stumbles and pitfalls en route to a certain two-thirds majority

THE NATIONAL FRONT (BN) IS all set for its two thirds majority. The prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, wants a higher majority in 1999. It could, indeed would, get it. When the constituencies are re-drawn, every second general election, the first of two is heavily weighted in the BN's favour. The fiercely independent Election Commission will see to that. It knows who pays its bills and its fate if it does not deliver. In the second, it loses ground because the Opposition has worked the new ground. This is the first election after the constituencies were re-drawn. But it finds it tough going, fighting off a determined Opposition push to dislodge its hold. And it does not always work. Now the BN enemy is the Malay Opposition - PAS and KeADILan - than the Chinese-based political parties like the now defunct Socialist Front and the main Opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) it was for the first 20 years of independent Malaysia.

The 1998 Anwar affair revealed a stark truth. The opposition to BN would, from now on, come not from the Chinese-based and ideologically different political parties, but from the Malay political parties and organisations that disagrees with its worldview. This is reflected in those detained under the Internal Security Act: all, but for a handful, are Malays regarded in Putra Jaya as on the wrong side of the fence. The BN government is caught in a vice about them: several are on a hunger strike, sustained only with water, but it is so serious that they are forcibly removed to hospital to be force-fed. Little is reported in the mainstream media it controls, especially during the election campaign. But it is a live issue, like the Anwar affair, in the Malay heartland. The issue is their detention for alleged links with the Taliban and other far-right Muslim groups, especially after the son of the prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is cleared of all wrong doing in making centrifuge parts for nuclear weapons in a company he controlled. What is sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. But not in Malaysia. Here Napolean, as in George Orwell's Animal Farm, will always be better treated than Snowball.

There is another problem: there is little love lost on the ground between, and within, the political parties that make up the BN. It comes to the fore when general election is called. Dropped candidates will not accept they are, and in anger, burn, destroy or hijack the BN campaign headquarters; stand as independents; stay out of the campaign; or at worst, join the other side. This election is no different. In Kelantan, a former UMNO MP stands as an independent after he was sidelined. He could not win, but he could swing votes away from BN to allow PAS to win the seat. In Pahang, one MP denied his seat kept his counsel, and transferred his well-oiled election machinery to PAS. For all the optimistic statements out of Pekan, where the deputy prime minsiter, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, fights for his political life, his aides mention a disturbing PAS quiet that it worries them. PAS worked to dislodge him since 1999, when he squeaked in with a wafer-thin majority of 241, decided not to match the BN in its money-spending campaign, and opted to campaign as guerillas. Meanwhile, PAS has released one VCD about Dato' Seri Najib, according to his aides, he and they have not cited it. His PAS opponent is a retired brigadier-general in his 70s.

In Kuala Lumpur, the infighting within and between the BN parties is taken to new heights. In Titiwangsa, the sitting member is dropped, and he could not get back in. So he shut down the UMNO campaign headquarters to deny the candidate, the son of a former cabinet minister of long standing. In neighbouring Wangsa Maju, UMNO is miffed at the MCA candidate that it shut down its campaign headquarters. In retaliation, MCA shut down its election office in Titiwangsa. Similar incidents happen all over the country, but in areas in Kelantan, Trengganu and other areas in the Malay heartland, it could upset the BN's calculations. This election is in part to ehance Pak Lah's image, but that image is getting frayed. In Johore he had to eat humble pie, forced to change his line-up when the sultan objected to his candidate for mentri besar.

UMNO stalwarts complain of 'palace interference' but this cannot be ruled out when BN itself is cock-a-hoop when its candidates are of royal blood: in Pahang, the sultan's brother is a BN MP and deputy minister; in Perlis, BN make much of the King's brother standing on its ticket. The BN ignores why the palace is involved: did it pull up the Sultan of Pahang when he openly called on his subjects to vote for the BN? BN at the centre insists who would be mentri besar. This upsets many a sultan who is prepared to accept any chosen by the state assembly or the BN in the state. But BN would not want that: the man chosen is often not the best man available, but one which would accept Kuala Lumpur's dictates without question. It throws up a constitutional crisis waiting for a hearing. This is partly why Pak Lah could not complete his list of candidates until the last possible moment. In Malacca, the chief minister, Dato' Seri Mohamed Ali Rastam, was to step down for two reasons: a missing hundreds of millions of ringgit from a joint account with a foreign investor; and the civil service's refusal to work with him after his several callous remarks to them about "Melayu bodoh" (stupid Malays). The ACA is reported to investigate the first. Yet he is back in. But the opposition is not positioned to take advantage of this, though it could increase its representation in the next state assembly.

Unfortunately, the BN takes the overwhelming victory as proof that it does well. The foreign minister, Dato' Seri Syed Hamid Albar, is certain the BN is right all along, now that his opponent has withdrawn from the election. It is the new election rules at work: candidates can withdraw from the race by the third day of nomination, but would loss their deposit (but is allowed only one hour to be a candidate). It opens the way for weak candidates to be bought when ambitious politicians want to be returned unopposed. So Dato' Seri Syed Hamid is returned unopposed. But does it follow what he said? Not on your life. The BN's problems began when it pruned almost half the sitting members, in parliament and the states.

It was too drastic, and amongst those pruned learnt of it not from party headquarters but on the news, or other means. The pruning was done suddenly and nearer to the polls so the reaction could be muted. It was the work of Pak Lah's inner circle, well clued to the theory but not the practice of politics in either Malaysia or BN. It did not take into account local sensitivities. It worked, but fitfully. It is a sign that all is not well. If Pak Lah uses this majority to do a total spring cleaning after the UMNO election in June, and set up a political machine in which the ground is properly respected and given due weight, and the state BN is given a measure of autonomy, even to chose its candidates, then there is hope. Otherwise, it could take a fall from which it could never recover. It is wise not to forget, as Lord Action said, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[I wrote this for my column in Seruan Keadilan, the organ of the National Justic Party (KeADILan)], out today, 18 March 2004]

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com