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The dangerous fallout from Kuala Berang

THE NATIONAL FRONT (BN), AS only to be expected, was returned in the Kuala Berang by-election. In today's political circumstances, it could not have been otherwise. The stake in this by-election was too high. The Prime Minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, still struggles for a role in BN, and its main component, UMNO, since assuming office ten months ago, and could not face the UMNO general assembly with a by-election defeat. UMNO has rarely lost a by-election; when it has, it reflected deeper problems within. In Kuala Berang, it was Pak Lah's legitimacy as Malaysia's and UMNO's leader. Those UMNO leaders who campaigned for the BN candidate had their own agendas: they were positioning for a crucial role in UMNO for the battles ahead.

The cards were stacked against PAS even before nomination day. No matter what it did, its candidate, short of a miracle, could not be returned. PAS is still on crutches after its loss, in the March general elections, of Trengganu state, where Kuala Berang is, the internal convulsions over it yet unresolved, but its local organisation is, by and large, intact. As the PAS muktamar (assembly) in Kota Bharu revealed, the party is unsure if it should be predominantly a Malay or Islamic party. A similar debate goes on in UMNO, but the differences rarely get the public attention PAS's does because the mainstream media is aligned irrevocably to the BN government. This should not surprise. What is allowed Zeus is disallowed the cow.

All Malaysia's mainstream newspapers, in the peninsular, Sabah and Sarawak, are controlled by the BN parties, with a vested interest of denying or reporting Opposition events, except when it damages them. This is the more severe now as the Malay divide widens, and both UMNO and PAS clamour for their support with an ever shrill Islamic agenda.

Both are unsure of the battle ground for they face similar pressures: In UMNO, this lurch into an Islamic future has upset many in it: one group believes it cannot deliver the Islamic agenda, and opt to be in PAS; another believes in it, but cannot argue its case; and the third wants nothing to do with either, and hankers for the original ideals of UMNO. In PAS, as more professionals join PAS, the move to modify its strident Islamic image raises more heat not so much for its own sake but so it could be re-oriented into a mainstream party. The usual resistance, as in UMNO, is part of the political process.

But the mainstream media, controlled as it is by BN parties and politicians, would attack the PAS differences politically, not as a serious comment. Much of the reporting of PAS and the Opposition is often political hatchet work. There is a subtle change now in the mainstream media, with Opposition leaders and others who in normal times would not be, are interviewed and given space. The one-sided coverage and confrontational reporting loses it readers and corporate losses. This has to be turned around. Hence this makeover. But it still is not enough to reverse the trend of declining sales because readers, fed up of this one-sided reporting have in recent years voted with their feet and not inclined to return.

So, in the end, the BN retained Kuala Berang in the by-election on 28 August 2004. Its candidate, Mr Mohamed Zawawi Ismail, had 6,051 votes against PAS's Mr Muhyuddin Abdul Rashid's 3,992 votes, a majority of 2,059 – compared to a 1,695 vote majority in March. The by-election was caused by the sudden death of the BN state assemblyman, Mr Komaruddin Abdul Rahman, elected in March. The published analysis all point to PAS's bankruptcy, the power of the people, the righteousness of BN policies, the prescience of Pak Lah as BN leader, PAS misjudgments.

There is merit in all of this, but in a general election, not in a by-election. The BN swamped the constituency with as many as three campaigners to every voter. The UMNO deputy prime minister and several cabinet ministers were on hand to lead them, untold money was spent, all of which allowed in the peculiar way the Election Commission allows money to be spent: only what the candidate himself spends for his campaign, like his posters and other similar expenses, are allowed, not the hundreds of millions of ringgit the BN spend to assemble the campaigners and the organisation. The presence of so many cabinet ministers, all paid out of government funds, is ignored.

The greater danger in Kuala Berang is not that BN won, but the turnout. Nearly 90 per cent came out to vote in March, and just a shade less, in the by-election. In any fairly contested election, even a turnout of 75 per cent is high; when it edges towards 90 per cent, it is proof enough that all is not well. The Election Commission amends its rules on the fly. In the March general election, the electoral list was changed several times during the course of the short election period, with even one gazetted after the general election used in some polling stations. This time, it announced that any identification, other than the identity card, could be used. This raises doubts if the frequent allegations of multiple voting are not true, and with official sanction.

This is likely to be the trend in future elections: this attempt to improve the electoral turnout to prove how involved Malaysians are in elections. The BN and its predecessor, the Alliance, has been returned in every general election since 1955. In the last 30 years, it had had been returned in three quarters and more of the constituencies. Once in power they ignore the voter who elected them into office. It worked when the Malays were united. They are not now, thanks to a near cripple in Sungei Buloh. The BN and UMNO must prove their relevance by being returned to power in ever large turnouts, reaching limits that Mr Josef Stalin could only drool at.

With the 'dumbing down' of the mainstream media, where what matters is barely mentioned and the emphasis is on what is referred to as "infotainment", it shifts the voter's attention away from issues of the day. With the space for the Opposition parties reduced by the day, in practice and by law, politics and power is in the hands of a small coterie in BN. It controlls all the levers of power, and in future, elections would be to show Malaysia as a democracy, not that it is. Public expression is disallowed, except under onerous conditions that often cannot be met. The Kuala Berang has pushed that agenda one more step forward. But the conflict over it would push the internal convulsions, and the debate over what should be, into the open, with or without legal permission. That is only a matter of time.

[This is my column in the latest issue of Harakah, the PAS organ, out today, 02 September 2004.]

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com