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What the freeing of Anwar Ibrahim means to UMNO

THE FEDERAL COURT, AS expected, today (02 September 2004) quashed the conviction for sodomy and nine-year-jail sentence on Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, six years to the day he was sacked as deputy prime minister. This hearing had been postponed several times, and the decision confirmed recent rumours of both his acquittal and of a deal struck between him and the prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. After his arrest and when blindfolded and manacled, he was beaten to an inch of his life by the then Inspector-General of Police, Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Noor, causing him now to be in extreme pain and a near cripple confined to a wheelchair. His medical condition is so bad that he had been in hospital for the past five weeks. He would be released from prison today and leaves for surgery in Munich tomorrow on a special flight arranged by the Saudi Arabian government.

Dato' Seri Anwar insisted on microscopic surgery in Munich. The government would not budge from its position that he is a common prisoner, he cannot decide where and how he ought to be treated. But it informed Parliament of this, twice, to turn it into a political confrontation. Pak Lah had no choice but sue for peace: his legitimacy as UMNO president is suspect, and his attempts to be a leader in his own right failed through his political machinations. Dato' Seri Anwar had turned the tables on the government by his brilliant political manouvres and leading the National Front government into a trap of his making. Finally what forced the government's hands is the fear that he might die – and that would make matters worse. And it now appears the five weeks in hospital came when talks began. What the deal is is unclear, but if the rumours have any basis, he would leave Malaysia immediately on his acquittal, not return awhile, but not that he would not return to politics.

The common prisoner is not so common after all. He got what he wanted. He outstared the BN government, lived long enough for its case to collapse, and even the judges decided enough was enough. It does not represent a new mood in the judiciary, which lost its independence when its chief justice was drummed out of his own court, and those who followed made certain it was a particularly pliable government department. But with time this belief that Dato' Seri Anwar was convicted by a kangaroo court damaged what little respect the judiciary had. The prime minister, in one of his more regrettable statements, wanted report cards from BN members of parliament to keep them on their toes; the new chief justice, to prove his genuflection to political authority, followed suit. But the judges had had enough. They were becoming the laughing stock. And decided enough is enough and opted to honour their oath of office.

What does the Anwar acquittal mean to UMNO and by extension BN? The Malay community is still split over the Anwar affair. That would not yet change. Not after Dato' Seri Anwar insisted, after the acquittal, that he would fight, on his return, to reform the institutions from the Opposition benches. Some UMNO leaders hoped he could be weaned back into UMNO, but that had always been impossible. How he was destroyed and humiliated broke the Malay feudal code, and if Anwar had returned to UMNO, his political future would have been pretty grim. UMNO had in the past six years to look over its shoulders to see what Dato' Seri Anwar's plans were. It is only now senior UMNO leaders confess, in strictest secrecy, that the Anwar affair all but destroyed UMNO. This release of Anwar could gain UMNO, in the short term, some brownie points, but the long term impact would be disastrous. He is a powerful icon for Malaysia's opposition. That can only be burnished with his acquittal, especially if the rumours of a deal are true.

The UMNO supreme council elections later this month would be one indication. The UMNO opposition to Pak Lah is leaderless and defused; the strongest is led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Those who back Dato' Seri Anwar are leaderless and without direction. Now it is possible that the two forces could combine with others similarly inclined into an anti-Pak Lah faction. If Pak Lah thought he could get a free ride in the UMNO supreme council elections, he would have to think twice. The UMNO candidates are headless, and the most serious issue amongst them is the need for tutorials on bribery and corruption aka money politics. The candidates, nevertheless, offer bribes in cash and kind to delegates that those who do not, or cannot, are widely said to be no-hopers. But the Anwar acquittal – no matter how one looks at it, he has won this round hands down – could cause delegates to ignore the bribes they have accepted to vote for those with a principled stand.

Dato' Seri Anwar could take part in general elections after he is free of his five-year ban on prisoners contesting for public office ends on 16 April 2008. If he succeeds in overturning his Federal Court dismissal of conviction and jail term for corruption, he would be ready now. In jail, he powerfully tormented the BN government and the prime minister. Free, he would be a greater threat. So far, UMNO presents a studied nonchalence at what happened. But if UMNO is not reformed to meet the new Opposition challenge under a man bent on proving a point, the BN could, probably would, disappear into thin air. The Malay cultural worldview is defied in the humiliation of Dato' Seri Anwar. There is no attempt in UMNO to reverse it. With him outside, UMNO cannot reform and re-orient fast enough to keep pace with him.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com