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A man undergoes microsurgery in Munich, and UMNO screams in pain

WHEN THE MALAYSIAN AIRWAYS flight landed at Frankfurt airport yesterday (05 September 2004) morning at 06.15 am, the few hundred well-wishers, amongst whom were the Malaysian ambassador, Dato' Kamal Ismaun, and his staff, gave a rousing welcome to the special passenger, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The New Straits Times sent a special correspondent to cover his arrival, who thought it unworthy to report this minor detail. But look closely, and one could see apparatchiks of the UMNO high and mighty. But this goes against the grain: it is difficult to turn a devil into a hero, but that is what it has to do. He went on to Munich and checked into the Alpha Klinik, and expects to undergo surgery today. His back problems worsened after the Inspector-General of Police, Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Noor, no less, beat him, shortly after his arrest, to an inch of his life, and combined with political positions he and the government took reduced him to a near cripple, with neck and back braces and confined to a wheelchair. Who blinked, lost. And the National Front (BN) government did.

If all goes well, he would be up and about in a few weeks. He would move on to Saudi Arabia to recuperate from the surgery and his imprisonment, and probably stay away for the rest of the year at least. The longer he stays out of the public eye, and in Saudi Arabia, the more the official nightmare of a free Anwar in politics turns into horrifying fact. He is now off the front pages, but not for long. The Federal Court delivers its judgment tomorrow if it would rehear its dismissal of his appeal against his conviction for corruption. The principle it can is established in the M.G.G. Pillai case. There is an attempt now to limit it to civil hearings in the Federal Court. One of two judges who allowed me that right insists it cannot be applied in a criminal case. If he gets the review, there is still one more hurdle: the rehearing of his Federal court appeal. That could take a year. Twentyfour hours is a long time in politics; a year is eternity. The Anwar case is political, not legal. What we see now is a metaphorical replay of the reformasi confrontation of 1998, only this time the absolute control of an UMNO and the BN government it leads is forced to take on the challenge in near tatters.

Normally, with the UMNO general assembly and elections three weeks ahead, the mainstream newspapers would have little of note to report except the incestuous infighting to be elected, with space only for those who are linked to the UMNO president. All others are all but pariahs, there to prove democracy exists in UMNO and lose. The creative interpretations of its code of ethics is a scandal that candidates now request a tutorial on what is allowed and not. No campaigning, it said; but it is now allowed. No bribery aka money politics, it said; but those caught for it, especially if in the government, are told to go forth and sin no more. Three vice-presidential candidates are thought to have indulged in it with an abandon and face disqualification. Or at least that was the intention so the Pak Lah nominees could romp home without a contest. There is no talk of that although several UMNO leaders insist they would be at the postponed supreme council meeting this week. More frightening is a move by some delegates to ensure the supreme council members elected do not hold any official posts. Whether it would succeed is beside the point; that it has much support should worry the UMNO leaders.

The general assembly is a poisoned chalice for Pak Lah. The Anwar release emboldens the delegates to demands fairness in electing supreme councillors, and more representation. It is a scripted affair, the general assembly, with delegates chosen to speak disallowed to stray from praising the leaders, a little humour, raising no inconvenient issues and delivered in maudlin banality, full of sound and fury signifying nothing. With the delegates up in arms, and encouraged by the Anwar release, the UMNO leaders struggle to contain it. They could well. Tall talk is common before the general assembly and all fall in line when the crunch comes. This year, there is an air of reformasi in the delegates' ranks. The leader down principle in UMNO is challenged. Pak Lah had planned to set his seal as the unchallenged UMNO president and Malaysian prime minister. He finds that now an uphill task. He is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Dato' Seri Anwar, whatever he does or does not do, in hospital or out of it, overseas or at home, metaphorically snaps at his heels.

And worse when he takes his fateful re-entry in party politics. Would he rejoin UMNO? No chance, says the deputy president-to-be, Dato' Seri Najib, the UMNO constitution does not allow it, though others who joined opposition parties on leaving UMNO are welcomed back with open arms. It is wise of Dato' Seri Anwar to have gone overseas now. He was still in an adrenalin-induced high at being released unexpectedly, when I saw him on Saturday (04 September), and inclined to make he could later regret. By the time he returns he would have returned to earth. The cabinet is split. His silent backers who pushed their support to the deepest recesses of their minds now flex their muscles. When challenge is "derhaka" (treachery), it is wise to keep to one's counsel; when that is backed by like-minded individuals and groups, the gloves are off, and it is war. The gauntlet is thrown for UMNO to pick up. Whether he gets the review of not does not matter: whatever the result it is to UMNO's disadvantage. That he is free despite horrendous attempts to make sure he does not reflects the shifting sands that could be UMNO's quagmire if it cannot pull itself.

That is easier said than done. The ill-disguised hostility between Pak Lah and his deputy, Dato' Seri Najib, has locked each into a corner. Dato' Seri Anwar's release puts exceptional pressure on the latter. He is a cautious man not about to take chances, and moves up the political ladder by offending no one but with a well-organised political machine. But his followers and that of Pak Lah's view each as a mongoose views a snake. Rumours abound he would be on the firing line after the UMNO general assembly this month, forced out in disgrace.

That is unlikely, unless Pak Lah has political suicide in mind. The Anwar release bought him time, but paradoxically brings him even closer to the brink. The BN government did not want Dato' Seri Anwar free. It was forced into the deal, which Pak Lah dismisses out of hand, because the crucial decision was taken in a foreign country. In this, the Malaysian government is caught in the same dilemma when it refused Thailand's request to join it in its peace talks with the Malayan Communist Party, but rushed to join it when it realised what it meant. It was too late then, for the Malaysian team arrived to all but sign on the dotted line. After that, it ignored the agreement, and behaved churlishly in refusing to honour it, as now with Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com