MGG Pillai Commentary View

<< Previous || Next >>

The last laugh

THE UMNO SUPREME COUNCIL is mortified of its own shadow, in rigor mortis at the vaguest hint that former deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, might rejoin UMNO. So it unanimously barred him from rejoining UMNO "even if he wants to" at its meeting yesterday (14 September 2004). But he had said repeatedly, after the Federal Court allowed his appeal and freed him from prison last week, he would not; that he wants reforms which could not happen if he returned to UMNO. UMNO leaders believe him to be devious and speaks, as the Red Indian would say, with forked tongue. But why should a political party with an acclaimed 3.5 million members be frightened of an ex-member it insists it destroyed in 1998, and run around like a terrified headless chicken now that he is free? He cannot join a political party awhile yet. He is acquitted of sodomy, but he could not clear the other: to vitiate the conviction for corruption of abusing his authority to investigate the sodomy allegation. The Federal Court refused today to rehear its dismissal of his corruption conviction, so he is barred from party politics until April 2008 before he can rejoin UMNO or even join another political party. It does look like UMNO jumped the gun – and unnecessarily. If he had succeeded, it would have been a pyrrhic victory at best: it could take years before the appeal was reheard.

The UMNO general assembly meets next week. Yesterday's supreme council meeting was to discuss this, but was sidetracked by the Anwar affair. "The UMNO supreme council unanimously agreed that the sacked former deputy party president would not be re-admitted into the party." The acting party president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, nevertheless prevaricates. "For now, the door is closed." He told reporters afterwards: "I explained to the supreme council members that there is no deal or secret pact with Anwar on his re-entry into UMNO. The explanation was well received and unanimously accepted." The raises an interesting conundrum: He is in absolute control of Malaysia and the country, the supreme council eats out of his hand, in his own words, Dato' Seri Anwar is irrelevant in UMNO, and yet this decision yesterday revealed its fright and dissarray. The more the news from Germany, where he recuperates from spinal surgery, that other leaders treat him as an important figure in Malaysian politics, the more the loathing and the fear in UMNO and the National Front (BN) government.

But the reality is that Dato' Seri Anwar's release has split the top UMNO leaders. Many, if not most, were in the conspiracy that lead to Dato' Seri Anwar's dismissal, arrest and conviction. The UMNO deputy president, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, headed the "Destroy Anwar" committee, which manufactured a videotape which showed Dato' Seri Anwar in compromising homosexual positions. But when the supreme council was shown it – at which both Pak Lah and Dato' Seri Najib were present though not Tun Mahathir Mohamed – several pronounced it so badly done that few would believe it. It was shown nevertheless – to senior civil servants, armed forces generals, ambassadors and others of high rank. At several showings, similar questions were raised. One ambassador asked, after he saw the video with others flown in to watch it, why Dato' Seri Anwar had long hair "on the job", but not when he was tired and resting after. Few remembers the botched effort but the perpetrators, now in high political and cabinet office, fear an Anwar backlash now that he is free.

This, and the murderous infighting amongst UMNO leaders, is why Dato' Seri Anwar cannot return. This would keep him out of UMNO for good, it hopes. In 1969, one Mahathir Mohamed was expelled from UMNO "for ever". A few years later, under a different prime minister, he is re-admitted, is made a senator, appointed to the cabinet, rose to be UMNO president and Malaysian prime minister. The UMNO leaders fear history repeating itself in Dato' Seri Anwar. Tun Mahathir's dismissal was above board; Dato' Seri Anwar's was not. That he would demand his pound of flesh gives UMNO leaders' nightmares and rigor mortis. In 1972, Dr Mahathir wanted to return to UMNO. In 2004, Dato' Seri Anwar does not. This frightens UMNO the more. For it knows what he can do. If Dato' Seri Anwar wants to return to political life, none could stop him. But as one senior UMNO leader told me a few days ago: "He is a nightmare to UMNO leaders if he returns to UMNO, or if he does not."

Whatever his political plans, he recuperates in Munich as a global political leader. Prime ministers, presidents, political leaders the world over now make a well-trodden path to the Alpha Klinik where he is. He is due to leave soon for a pilgrimage (umrah) to Mecca and back to Malaysia next month before the Muslim Ramadhan fast begins. The official paranoia is unmistakable. It has decreed him a non-person, the media to ignore him, his political future to be delayed as long as it could. UMNO knows how vulnerable it is, an amorphous and comatose giant that cannot put its own house in order facing a lean and angry wounded tiger. The leaders fight amongst, themselves. Pak Lah's plan for ultimate control unworkable for he showed unmistakable ambition to best his mentor, which he could not even by playing fast and loose with the election commission and the UMNO elections. His detractors, notably Dato' Seri Najib, had their own plans to turn the tables against him. But both are in awry with Dato' Seri Anwar's release.

What worries both is that the Malay ground is not as hostile to Dato' Seri Anwar as they are and would like. It is neutral, the more this is clear, the more hostile the top leaders are towards him. The ghost overhanging the UMNO general assembly is Dato' Seri Anwar. No more no less. He can throw his time-bombs when and how he pleases. UMNO leaders fear that a speaker or two might depart from their prepared speeches to reflect an independence that is denied them on these occasions. They are shell-shocked when asked how they would react if the election petition to nullify Datin Seri Wan Azizah returned to the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency in Penang. If fresh elections are ordered, UMNO must be prepared for a stinging defeat, certainly with Dato' Seri Anwar campaigning for his wife. It cannot now threaten his wife by nullifying it and calling for fresh polls.

The shell-shock continues unabated. Dato' Seri Najib has instructed UMNO state liaison chiefs to ignore Dato' Seri Anwar, and not ask for his return to UMNO. He is blamed for this, but sources say he did on Pak Lah's written instructions. All this shows is a disordered, disorganised, disgruntled, disfigured political party facing dissolution because it fears a sacked UMNO member would seek to return. The larger impact is worse. It had grown fat on its laurels, with senility taking hold of it. The former UMNO deputy president, Tan Sri Musa Hitam, said after the 1999 general elections that if UMNO did not rebuild and reorganise, it would flounder into irrelevance after the second general election ahead. It did seem to me over pessimistic then; I thought it would be about 2015. He is right. When UMNO needs the quiet and confidence to repair itself, it cannot. The leaders are at hammer and tongs against each other whilst they join hands to repel an outsider who does not want to muscle in.

He is returning to his former political position without holding any office. Too many were quick to dismiss him as an irrelevant nobody. He could not be prime minister if he did not rejoin UMNO. He is still a convict, the Malay ground looks askance at convicted corrupters, that UMNO would not accept him, so his political career is dead before it starts. This assumes much that is untrue. Dr Mahathir's political future was declared dead when he was sacked from UMNO in 1969. He ended up prime minister. The jailed former mentri besar (chief minister) of Selangor, Dato' Harun Idris, was elected UMNO youth chief from prison in 1974. Besides, UMNO is no more the only political path to high office. Kelantan, Trengganu, Penang, Sabah and Sarawak states showed that an opposition coalition could turn the UMNO-led BN out of office. With Dato' Seri Anwar with the opposition, there is no reason why it should not capture the federal government. He laughs at the UMNO dissarray, and if it continues, could well have the last laugh.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com