MGG Pillai Commentary View

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From the frying pan into the fire

AND SO IT HAS come to that: UMNO is not only afraid of the Anwar lava which spews constantly from the once-dormant volcano of public dissent, but is also infected with the Anwar cancer. At the UMNO wanita, puteri and youth congresses in Kuala Lumpur yesterday (22 September 2004), no leader talked of him by name, but it was he who dominated. He is not an UMNO member, which is why the reticience, but he was nevertheless the man of the hour. He has said he would not join UMNO, that his reform agenda is as current as it was in 1998, when UMNO deemed him politically destroyed. He has returned from the dead, and UMNO is mortally terrified of him. At the Putra World Trade Centre, where UMNO meets, there was little other talk – with groups either supporting or excoriating him. Nothing else seemed to matter. In this atmosphere, few took what was said seriously. It was Anwar, Anwar, Anwar all the way. And he still has said nothing, is in a Munich clinic after his back operation.

When the UMNO-led National Front (BN) government is caught with its collective pants down over the man and react in scalded terror at the mere mention of his name, and this is at the back of the minds of leaders charting a course for it in the difficult times ahead, the meetings dissemble before one's eyes. One senior UMNO leader told me why. "He was not destroyed in 1998. He fought back. His constant battle with the courts showed not only how weak the UMNO and government case was, but that he was framed." It is, in Islam, he said, a mortal sin to accuse a man falsely of sodomy and worse to cover it up. The leaders have no qualms at what they did, but not those below. Which is why many of those involved are frightened of their place in the afterlife, and would rather make their peace with Allah, than UMNO. The leaders realise this, and raise the ante by insisting that he is a traitor to UMNO, and should not ever return.

The wanita, puteri and youth congresses are in one mind about it. The UMNO congress, which begins today, would too. But one discerns one trend not there in previous congresses: many delegates realise the party is headed for oblivion if it is not reformed, perhaps under leaders, with a clear aim of what ails it and how it would overcome it. For too long, the party believed it could do as it pleases, its leaders manipulated the party that few could speak their minds: cabinet ministers are sacked for their insolence in challenging the leader's views; divisional leaders are threatened with bankruptcy and worse if they strayed from the straight and the narrow; branch leaders and ordinary members reduced into ipotent silence. It is not the best of ways to strengthen a political party that has seen better days.

The biggest problem facing UMNO is that it has few men of vision amongst its leaders, nor men who would speak out for the changes needed to survive. The party is hostage to its president of the day. But what happens to the party when the president is held hostage to his own insecurities? UMNO fractures from within as the weak president and the weaker deputy president (both to confirmed today) want to edge the other out. For the first time, the leaders do not know how or what the ground thinks. Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi bent the rules to lead the BN into power with a 90 per cent majority, and to be returned unopposed as UMNO president. He – or his handlers – did not understand or expect the cost. The cynicism of the UMNO delegates is so overpowering this year, that Pak Lah would be weaker still after this assembly is over.

This is why nothing he says about his plans and hopes is relevant or believed. UMNO believes he and his coterie has taken control of the party and government with the same cynicism he and his predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed, tried to destroy Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Things went awry from the start, and with each passing day, the Anwar factor looms heavily on UMNO, BN, the government it leads, the leaders. And this eats into the UMNO psyche. When UMNO would not address it, but the Anwar supporters would, the battle is lost. The only people who have come out publicly to condemn Dato' Seri Anwar are UMNO leaders, not even the BN leaders, but what they say is disbelieved. It is not that those who can address it are not UMNO stalwarts who genuinely believe he is guilty as hell. But they know they would be struck down by UMNO before they start: if any one shows intelligence or political brilliance in defending UMNO or attacking Dato' Seri Anwar, he would be destroyed. Leave that to the leaders, they would be told, and punished for their insolence.

The UMNO supreme council election is this morning. If the wanita, puteri, youth elections are to go by, an anti-incumbent trend builds up. One group attracted much support when they called on delegates to vote those in who do not hold government posts. The election of Tun Mahathir's son into the UMNO youth council, one few amongst senior UMNO leaders would have welcomed, suggests the general view. This general assembly had, as a hidden agenda, the marginalisation of Tun Mahathir from UMNO and national politics. The UMNO headquarters petulantly did not send him the customary invitation to the formal opening today. Last week, the Tun decided he would not attend even if the invitation came. But Pak Lah found this out in time and called on him to deliver the invitation. So he would be there. With the Anwar issue hovering in the air, those, beside the leaders, who dislike him or would rather see him fry in hell move to the ranks of Tun Mahathir's supporters. The long and short of it is that UMNO is pulled apart from several directions, with the Anwar affair preventing it from ever rising above the political fray. What Pak Lah has to say in his presidential address would make no sense, would indeed add to UMNO's difficulties.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com