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A test of wills in Kelantan

THE BYELECTIONS FOR THE Pengkalen Pasir state assembly constituency in Kelantan is the first since the general elections last year. The result will make no difference to who governs Kelantan but the main political parties involved, the National Front though practically UMNO, and PAS are treating it as a matter of life or death. UMNO has called for the state government to resign if it wins, though why the PAS government should not when it can rule the state whatever the result. It was Tun Mahathir who said he would remain prime minister even if the National Front won by one seat. PAS could well be in that position after the byelections. But it is seen as a 'prestige' issue for both that they win Pengkalen Pasir. For UMNO it is a prestige issue, but little else. The leaders of UMNO, including the deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak, have visited Pengkalen Pasir in the runup to the byelections. There is a permanent UMNO presence from outside in Pengkelan Pasir. The UMNO leader in Kelantan has asked that UMNO and PAS reveal their candidate simultaneously so that one would not get an advantage over the other. They are trying to change the political rules when National Front meets PAS in a PAS- ruled state. But PAS is nervous as well, though why it should be beats every rational Malaysian. UMNO leaders from Kelantan are at odds with the head of the state UMNO, and they work hard to diminish him. And what better way is there than make sure he falls flat in Pengkalen Pasir. A victory for UMNO there would benefit him, and that is not what they want.

As it stands, it is not likely to be a straight fight. The former National Front deputy minister of information in Kuala Lumpur, Dato' Ibrahim Ali, who joined the perennial outsider in National Front and UMNO politics, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and expelled from UMNO and now and an independent, is the wild card. He has promised to stand. He cannot win in this byelections, but he can draw away votes that would go to either UMNO or PAS. He is the former NF member for the area that is part of the state constituency. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, a former federal Minister of Finance, left UMNO in a fight with the then president, but he remains popular throughout the country but especially in Kelantan, and is elected from Gua Musang, whether he is in or out of UMNO. Dato' Ibrahim Ali's threatened candidacy upsets UMNO the more since those backing him are also anti-UMNO voters. There has been rumours that Parti Keadilan Rakyat would also field a candidate, but it will draw voters who tend to vote UMNO. It is all to ensure that PAS wins. If PAS does not win Pengaken Pasir, it only means that UMNO had better appeal and could mask its internal rivalries for the larger interests of the party.

But UMNO has been sailing into the sunset long before Dato' Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (Pak Lah) took over as prime minister two years ago. He strengthened his position by winning the general election last year. But he is more interested in keeping UMNO together as he is challenged by warlords in the party, and reluctant to even reshuffle the cabinet he inherited from Tun Mahathir for fear that those dropped would go against him, especially in the 2007 party elections. He is more worried about UMNO than general elections, a trait his predecessor also showed. He is unsure of himself, and there is talk in Kuala Lumpur that he will bring Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim into UMNO - one stone he hopes would kill his two major political enemies, Dato' Seri Najib and his predecessor, Tun Mahathir Mohamed. It was Tun Mahathir who sacked Dato' Seri Anwar as deputy prime minister for committing sodomy but would not appear in court to justify it. No one has asked if Dato' Anwar would rejoin UMNO, from which he was expelled. He is not even a member of Parti Keadilan or its successor, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), former after its amalgamation with Parti Rakyat Malaysia, although his wife, Datin Seri Wan Aziz binti Dato Wan Ismail, is president. He has since said in press releases that he would rather join the opposition. The scuttlebutt in Kuala Lumpur is that he would join PAS and be its president before the next general election.

UMNO is therefore in a quandry. Tun Mahathir, after he retired as UMNO pesident, is still active in party politics. Although prime minister for 22 years, he is known in Malaysia and elsewhere not for the development Malaysia has made but as the man who sacked Dato' Seri Anwar. He must not let his rule go to waste because of it. He tried to bring a resolution at the UMNO General Assembly, through his friends, that would bar any who had left or expelled from UMNO to return. But it was hastily pulled out when it was found that the first four UMNO presidents were not members of UMNO Baru, as UMNO is formally known, when they died. UMNO today is a political party. The UMNO of old is a national movement that brought this country independence. UMNO today is trying to coast into office benefitting from UMNO the mass movement. The first four UMNO presidents - Dato' Sir Onn Jaffar (grandfather of the UMNO youth leader, Dato' Hishamuddin Hussein), Tengku Abdul Rahman, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein (father of the Dato' Seri Najib) and Tun Hussein Onn (son of Dato' Onn and father of Dato' Seri Hishamuddin) - were not members of the present UMNO. Tengku Abdul Rahman and Tun Hussein died during Tun Mahathir's prime ministership without ever becoming members of UMNO Baru; in fact, they fought hard, unsuccessfully, against it.

Young Malays join, as a general rule, UMNO if they want to become rich; and PAS if they want to be in politics. This is worrying UMNO no end. PAS is in a flux because the new members want PAS to be a political party, leaving religion to the council of ulemas. PAS at present is ruled by ulemas. The new members have already made PAS more dynamic than UMNO in several areas, and could well organise it to become a leading Malay political party. It will be Islamic, for UMNO is not a Malay party any more, but Islamic. UMNO can spin its conversion, but the spin has caused this shift of new members into PAS. No where is this conflict clearer than in Kelantan, the only state PAS rules. If PAS loses Kelantan, as it might, in the next general elections, it would be because of the still-unfinished quarrel between the young members and the Islamicists. UMNO understands this well, and shakes it, as it has in the run up to the byelections, but it should govern as long as it can, even with a one vote majority it would have if UMNO won Pengkalen Pasir.

There are no issues in the byelections. UMNO must win Pengkalen Pasir. PAS need not. But PAS unnecessarily gets into an argument with UMNO. It should shut up. It has ruled Kelantan from 1959, when elections were held for the first time in independent Malaya (as Malaysia was then known), to 1978. UMNO ruled for 12 years when PAS won it back in 1990. It has ruled ever since and can rule until the next general election. There is no reason for PAS to be worried at the outcome. The death of its member, who won by 65 votes in the 2004 general elections has not altered the result, nor if it lost the byelection. UMNO controls the mass media, so it can set the pace. But the pace is only to assure its members that it is still relevant. Why should PAS go along with that?

(This is my comumn in Harakah for its edition of today, 01-15 December 2005)

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com