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The Pengkalen Pasir byelection is not to benefit the constituency, but to prove a point

THE NATIONAL FRONT SET the pace for the byelection in Pengkalen Pasir state assembly byelection in Kelantan. It can because it owns the media. PAS has fallen into a trap. But it is the National Front through UMNO that is fighting tooth and nail to wrest the seat which it had lost in the general election by a mere 65 votes. The byelection is caused by the death of the PAS state assemblyman. The main problem for UMNO is that its man is Dato' Annuar Musa, head of the state UMNO party. He has many minuses to his credit, which is why the byelection is conducted by UMNO bigwigs from elsewhere in the country. He is at loggerheads with other UMNO wannabe leaders, including a federal former minister, Dato' Mustapha Mohamed. The UMNO emenense grise in the state, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, is not involved in this byelection, but the independent, Dato' Ibrahim Ali, can depend on that man's spport and supporters. They do not want the UMNO candidate to win in Pengkalen Pasir at least so that Dato' Annuar Musa's star will fall. During a former federal election, the PAS leader was given a photograph which would have killed Dato' Annuar as a politician. But Dato' Nik Aziz sent a message to him to close the doors when he undulged in what the photographs showed. The old man has never raised the incident on the hustings, but he had reduced UMNO to an also ran by his actions. I asked him about it when I heard it, and his only reply was we were young once! And he has never raised it in public. But UMNO would not have been magnanimous.

UMNO has suggested PAS should resign if it lost Pengkalen Pasir next week. But that has been modified later by saying that PAS should resign unilaterally if it lost Pengkalen Pasir. Under the election laws amended after UMNO stalwart Dato' Shahrir Ahmad won as an independent in the Johore Bahru parliamentary byelections in the 1980s, any one who resigns is automatically suspended from standing for five years. There is no talk anymore of UMNO state assemblymen resigning. PAS state assemblyman would resign if they are asked to but UMNO state assemblymen would rather not. The UMNO elected official makes it his life time occupation. He cannot afford to be left on the sidelines. In UMNO it is the individual that counts, in PAS the collective decision. The federal cabinet under the National Front is so constructed that its members hold office for a lifetime. The ministers and other political members of the government puts the country in limbo so that they can survive. The prime minister dare not sack them or reshuffle his cabinet for fear they will join his enemies in the party. The byelections in Pengkalen Pasir is held not so the people can elect their representative to the state assembly. It believes that if the people of Malaysia accept its message, so will the people of Pengkalen Pasir. The media, which it controls, carry what National Front leaders from elsewhere are doing to ensure UMNO's continued relevance in the state. But it is not true.

The National Front government puts all its resouces in a small constituency to show UMNO's relevance in Pengkalen Pasir. In this, it has some connection with its problems with China. The issues do not matter but the National Front Government through UMNO must win. It does not accept, at least in the media, that its opponent can fight back. It treats Chinese tourists like it treats its own ciitizens. It assumes it is right even when it is wrong. When it is challenged, it loses its cool, and falls into disarray. In Pengkalen Pasir, the candidature of Dato' Ibrahim Ali, whose expulson from UMNO did not lose him his warlord status, has caused the UMNO campaign to become unstuck. PAS could win if Dato' Ibrahim Ali could take away from UMNO those who do not like Dato' Annuar Musa. We have not heard of the candidates because to UMNO they do not matter. The prime minister and UMNO president, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who is also known as Pak Lah, has staked his reputation by using a hammer to kill a fly. He could well kill it but he might also miss it. With only five more days before the byelection in 6 December 2005, the National Front is pessimistic even if it does not show it in public.

Who wins the byelection is of no consequence. It only shows the National Front and UMNO has the power to use huge resources in a small place, bringing from out of state more people than who will vote. It nakes grand shows like getting its deputy youth leader to paint a house. But the people know they will disappear if UMNO wins or loses. It has no plans for Pengkalen Pasir. It believes a hammer will kill a fly easily. But my experience of the National Front in my constituency, whether it wins or loses, is typical. We do not see him until the next election. That will be the experience in Pengkalen Pasir. The National Front candidate lost in the general election, and this is his second chance. The National Front and UMNO has not bothered it after the general election in 2004. The candidate has not bothered about the constituency since he lost it. If he wins, it will be by fluke. There is no talk of issues, only that it must win, and federal UMNO has decided the byelection cannot be won without support from outside the state.

PAS in the state must engage federal National Front and UMNO by its state assemblymen resigning one at a time after each byelection so that federal National Front and UMNO would be tied up in Kelantan. UMNO is afraid this might happen, said one UMNO member. It wants to be sole representative of Malays and Islam in this country. It is a warning to PAS that UMNO would take it on in any byelection in a Malay seat. But PAS officials say it is caught in problems within its midst: the young members who does not believe PAS should be a religious part in apposition with the party ulemas, the infusion into the party of politically alive youngsters with their own ideas on how PAS should run quarrelling with the party elders. PAS is in a state of flux. But PAS is united in byelections, as opposed to UMNO whose divisions appear in public then. This separate divisions in UMNO is also present in the other parties in the National Front. The leaders rule by ignoring or bottling up dissent in the parties. This cannot last, and National Front would be in dissaray in future as its government is already in its dealings with China.

It does not matter whether UMNO or PAS win the byelections on 6 December 2005. PAS would not resign if it loses, and UMNO will not bring in federal or other funds into the constituency. Life will go on as usual no matter who wins. Its election campaign and its hopes for the constituency, which is what it says in its media, is UMNO's hopes for Pengkalen Pasir. But it does not mean it. It never bothered about Pengkalen Pasir when it was in power in Kelantan from 1978 to 1990. Why should it now when it is in the opposition in the state? Has UMNO done anything like it promises in Pengklan Pasir in the constituencies it has won in Kelantan?

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com