MGG Pillai Commentary View

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It is still Saddam Hussein versus the United States in Iraq

SADDAM HUSSEIN IN THE dock challenges the United States and its plans to make Iraq in its image and get at the second largest oil reserves known, after Saudi Arabia. He is on trial for his life, orchestrated by the US. He is in their custody. It decides when or how the trial will be held. The US must censor the trial reports and photographs before it can be published. He has too many supporters in present day Iraq, and they should not ever know he is putting up a fight. But Saddam Hussein in the dock is so threatening that witnesses give their evidence behind a screen; the judges and the prosecution can see them but not the defence. The trial of Saddam Hussein and his men is holding to ranson the US invasion of Iraq. The trial was decided to be in Iraq. The US made his first mistake when it charged him with minor offences, when they should have charged him and his men for the offense they have kept to the last. It did not know what it was doing, allowed Saddam Hussein to take charge. CNN and other television reports that the people of Iraq are not convinced. The judges, who except for the chief judge are kept hidden, can pronounce only death, the sooner the better. If he is acquitted in his first trial, the US is more on the defensive. It cannot afford that. Saddam Hussein has said he would expect the death sentence, and prepared for that. An Arab ruler expects to be killed if he loses or is overthrown. But he is arrested by an invading army, which did not know what to do once it had Iraq. The Invasion was done for false reasons. There was a rush to claim credit for the invasion, and the officials in Washington and their proconsul in Iraq did not agree what to do next. The decision was taken to create a government from start, with lthe Sunnis, who have ruled since the 1920s, excluded. the Sunnis saw the writing on the wall, decided they would never rule again, went against the US, and the country is in chaos.

The United States lives in a dream world. The Sunnis are on the offensive, and is supported by the Middle East where 90 per cent of Muslims are Sunni. A guerrilla war is in force, causing havoc, and while the US says, weakly, is not playing according to the rules of warfare. The suicide bombings have made it difficult to withdraw US troops, as the US electorates wants them to. Yesterday, the suicide bombers went into a police academy in Baghdad, and killed 27 people including themselves. Meanwhile, the US invasion of Iraq has brought desolation in the 21st century as the Mongol invasion had in the 11th century. The US devastated Iraq as a tactic because it used air power to destroy. The insurgents kill in suicide attacks. And the US do not know how they can be stopped. US officials say that the bombs are 'smart' and be devastatingly accurate. But it cannot be, given the damage the US has caused. They would have created peace in a desert, if the Sunni underground was not strong. It is in talks with the US, and offered to bring in Abu Musab al-Zarkawi, the reputed leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, but the US peremptorily dismissed it. The election is coming in the US, and if the Bush administration shows to be giving in, it might have terrible consequences in the US. In a guerrilla war, there are no set piece battles. They will act unilaterally to bring down a static army. They will create fear among the people, already cowed with constant US bombing. All that the US can accuse the guerrillas is that they are not playing according to the rules. But the rules each follow are different. The US version is fiction, but it tries everyone to accept that as the truth.

The elaborate circumstances under which Saddam Hussein and his men are on trial has gone awry. The witnesses are not willing to reveal themselves for fear of what would happen to them outside the court. Every one in authority would like to see Saddam Hussein dead. But the trial was first held during Ramadan, when trials involving death sentences are rarely held, and it is postponed two weeks before the elections in which US's favourite sons will win. Iraq will be ruled by proxy, but with a strong insurgency. Both do not care what happens to Iraq. The government the US formed lives in fear of its lives, and dare not leave the "Green Zone" except under armed escort. The government will not get down to the ground for the same reason. It cannot last, as President Nguyen van Thieu did not in Vietnam. Because of Saddam Hussein now, and Ho Chi Minh then. The arguments heard today in Iraq is those that was heard in Vietnam then. The battle then was between "Freedom" and "Communism", in which the United States was on side, but the Russians got proxies to fight, and the United States lost. In Iraq, the government it formed is peopled by Iraqis who left the country and hold a Western situation. They know that if worse came to worst, they could always go back to the country of Western citizenship. Iraq will be a desolate land for the insurgents are not interested in taking over. Every effort they made to keep a functioning country was rejected: the US is not interested to negotiate with the guerrillas. But it wants to give the impression it is winning the war. So it gives a rosy picture of what is happening in the country, and decry the guerrillas. As they did, in the aptly named "Five O'clock Follies" in Saigon. With this one difference. People could walk about freely in Saigon then, as they cannot in Baghdad.

In Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh led the Vietnamese resistance. In Iraq, the United States created Saddam Hussein. He was put on trial on false grounds. It was not a crime for the President to do what he did. It is now a crime for what he did as President, and he is charged for that. He has put up a stirring defence, as President Milasovic did at his trial, another victor's justice, at the Hague. But killing Saddam Hussein will pose difficulties for the US. There is already talk that he would be hanged in other Middle Eastern country. His hanging in Iraq is said to be too divisive for the country. So long as he is alive, the insurgency will be active. Once he is dead, the insurgency will be more active. His death or his living will turn the insurgency once way or another. But the US in a mess in Iraq because it did not believe that Americans who thought otherwise or spoke Iraq fluently had a point of view that could be useful in the negotiations. A wise general said the exit plan must be planned before the invasion. Now it is ad hoc. It has put its quislings, who will take over when they leave, in an impossible situation. They might follow the invaders out. But what would happen to Iraq, once a European country in the Middle East, nut now an impossible country to govern, with racial, religious, secular forces fighting for a stake, often killing the others in the process. Saddam Hussein and his men will give them some respite, but not if they are killed, as the US would like them to.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com