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Was it UMNO vs PAS in Pengkalen Pasir, or Khairy Jamaluddin vs Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak?

THE NATIONAL FRONT, OR rather UMNO, has won the Kelantan state constituency seat of Pengkalen Pasir. The National Front publicity machine is ecstatic about it, but UMNO does not think it a victory. They see it not as a gladitorial contest between UMNO and PAS but as between Khairy Jamaluddin and Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak to see who would have the inside track to be Prime Minister after Khairy's father-in-law, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. The 140-vote win is neither here nor there. There were 160 votes spoilt, surprisingly the same number as postal votes. This is dubbed in UMNO as "Khairy's election". And Khairy Jamaluddin had set the tone: UMNO would get a 700 vote majority, and Dato' Ibrahim Ali, a former UMNO leader who has been expelled and stood as an independent, would get less than 500 votes. Khairy Jamaluddin could only deliver the second of his promises. Dato' Ibrahim Ali lost 1,100 votes less than he received in 2004. UMNO brought in 3,800 votes from elsewhere who were registered to vote in the constituence. Pemuda UMNO and Puteri UMNO said they were in control of the 2,000 new voters. UMNO should have got at least 6,900 vote majority, nearly ten times more than it had predicted, but got less than the postal votes. The efficient National Front propaganda machine has called it a victory, nevertheless, and the newspapers reported it as such and how the PAS state government in Kelantan is dithering because of it.

It is on shaky ground when it asks PAS to resign from the state government because it has now only a one-seat majority. In 1969, the Alliance ruled Perak and Selangor with a one-seat majority for three years, when the National Front was formed with opposition parties like Gerakanan and the People's Progressive Party joined it, along with several others including Parti Se-Islam Malaysia, now its sworn enemy for the Malay mantle. After Dr Mahathir won the UMNO presidency by 40 votes against Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in 1987, he said he would not resign with even with a one vote majority. Since the state assembly meets only twice a year, the PAS state government in Kelantan, sits tight and unless it amends the state constitution, which needs a two-thirds majority, it is safe. The National Front, which includes UMNO, can vote against the budget, but it would not vote against any bill which pays them its allowance. It has voted the budget every time PAS was in power. It was forced out in 1978 by a force majeure organised by the National Front. The propaganda machine is to get all people to vote against PAS, not look at the realities. It is fair to ask the Alliance why it did not resign when it had only a one-seat majority in Selangor and Perak in 1969, and why Tun Mahathir said that he would remain if he won by one vote. That PAS has ruled Kelantan for 37 years after the first general elections in 1959 put paid to the notion that it does not know how to rule.

In Pengkalen Pasir, the National Front used a cannon to kill a fly. As one anaylist said: "The National Front is like someone who spend RM10 million to by a RM300,000 link hourse. The only other buyer has RM100,000. And the successful bidder is crowing to the rooftops that he got the house." But did he, or to be more precise, did UMNO in Pengkalen Pasir? Last night, Dato' Seri Najib's camp were celebrating at the result, because National Front won by a narrow margin. They would have been happier if UMNO had lost. All those unhappy at UMNO winning in Pengkalen Pasir knew they supported one rejected by UMNO ground. The Naional Front makes sure there is an army camp in each of the leader's constituencies. And the soldiers vote in full view of their officers seeing how they voted. There are two ways how this could be done: one by watching the soldier or policeman vote, and the officers vote for the National Front on behalf of the soldier. The army camps are built in constituencies of UMNO leaders.

A 3,000 bonus vote goes to the leaders of the UMNO: Tun Mahathir, when he was prime minister, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Dato' Mustapha Mohamed, among others, have army camps in their constituencies. But there are army commandants now who believe the vote is secret, and it is none of their business to see how their men voted. Dato' Mutapha lost Jeli parliamentary constituency because the camp commandant insisted on the vote being free. In 1999, the commandment of one camp thought so, and ordered his men to vote as they saw fit. The postal votes are kept in a police station three days before the election day. The camp commandant and the Keadilan candiate was informed, by an anonymous call, that the votes had disappeared. They rushed to the police station to confirm it. But the missing 3,000 postal votes went to the National Front candidate, and he became the MP for that constituency. The postal votes are manipulated to keep the government in power in Kuala Lumpur. In state constituencies like Pengkalen Pasir, the postal votes come from civil servants and police stations. The postal votes for that constituencies may have voted for PAS or split for the three candidates. Until we are told how the postal votes were cast, we would have to assume that the postal votes became spoilt votes.

The byelection has left UMNO with heavy commitments. It has promised the people of Pengkalen Pasir to do things they have forgotten in the state constituencies they have won in the 2004 general election. It would be business as usual from now on. A sleepy hollow was turned into a metropolice for the duration of the byelection, with UMNO's help, and it has become a sleepy hollow again. UMNO was interested in making a point, see Khairy Jamaluddin win handsomely, but PAS was interested in Pengkalen Pasir in the larger intests of the Muslim ummah. Islam Hadhari, which UMNO throws around the country as superior to Islam was kept in Kuala Lumpur during the byelection. The last thing UMNO wanted was a theological discussion on the benefits of Islam Hadhari and Islam. Malaysia would see contests like in Pengkalen Pasir in the years to come, with the National Front and lUMNO being more arrogant and the thinking its plan is best because it has more money to spend. Some people will be mollycoddled into accepting that propaganda, but many would not in the coming years. When the Barisan candidate in Bricfields offered RM10 each to any one who would vote for him, it was suggested he should pay RM10 a month for five years to get the vote. He lost. Propaganda and modern electoral methods might work for a while, but not always. Pengkalen Pasir proved that.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com