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Except for PAS, the opposition parties are united in hate

There are only two political parties of any note in Malaysia: UMNO and PAS. They exist because they are supported by the ground because they love the larger ideal the two parties represent. This is why the only two parties ruling this country are these two. UMNO governs as the National Front, which is the government in all states but Kelantan, where PAS leads. The chances of the other political parties make a dent on the Malaysian electoral system are very slim indeed. The other political parties cannot make any headway because the bulk of its members and supporters see it as way to keep the National Front, or the PAS, governments in check. This is why it has not formed any governments so far. When other political parties form a state government it is not the strength that enable them to, but the weakness of the National Front that caused it to stumble.

In Malaysia, the opposition is seen as a useful check on the National Front. And they have grown in members who are united in hate: they hate a leader in UMNO, and all those who hate him, but not UMNO, rush to swell its ranks. It seems at first sight a party to watch, but it is united in hate. But when the principle hate figure removes himself, and is no longer an issue, whoever takes over UMNO sweeps the board. This is what happened in the 2004 general election. There was a surge out of UMNO as Tun Mahathir Mohamed continued to dominate the party. Those who moved out continued to love UMNO but did not like its then president. KeADILan, now Parti Kadilan Rakyat after it merged with Parti Rakyat Malaysia. The reformasi demonstrations were the larger because many of those in it did not like the UMNO president. When Tun Mahathir resigned abruptly in favour of Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi before the 2004 General Elections, he deprived the opposition of an enemy.

These political parties lost an enemy to hate, and could not find one to replace him. Even today, the opposition hated is for Tun Mahathir, though he had not been prime minister for two years. They survive in Malaysian politics for a sectarian reason. The Democratic Action Party (DAP] is there is ensure that its representations will keep the National Front in check in parliament, No more no less. Which is why its plan to take over Penang and become a force in Malacca failed. It can win no more than three dozen seats in parliament, and about the same number in the state assemblies. They can maintain this so long as they will never form the government and will be available for raising issues the Chinese or Indian parties in the National would not. The PRM, which has merged with KeADILan, was allowed to exist because of its intellectual ability which allowed UMNO to revamp itself, and not to win votes.

The Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia [Gerakan], the Malaysian Indian Congress [MIC], the People's Progressive Party [PPP] are not political parties now in the sense that UMNO or PAS is one. They cannot exist on their own, like many opposition political parties. They divisions in them are based on hate, and suffer the same problems as the opposition parties, and would disappear from the scene if they ever leave the National Front. The Gerakan provides the chief minister in Penang, but the MCA is yapping at its heels, to make the chief minister very uncomfortable. The DAP's attempt to throw out the Gerakan and take over failed because it was not meant to govern. The people of Penang wanted DAP not as the government but as the opposition. The DAP is forever destined to be in the opposition because that is how it is perceived.

When Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim was arrested and jailed, the reformasi crowd that protested in the streets contained many who hated Tun Mahathir. The reformasi crowd grew big because many, though they loved UMNO, hated its leader, then Tun Mahathir. That support has lessened in the years since, as many reformasi members went back to UMNO. Today it is that united of hate which gives PKR its status. That remains its guiding principle these days, that many of its leaders are drifting back to UMNO. One finds few PKR members who are in it because it represents an opposition party. It can remain a political force if it controls a Malaysian state. It cannot in West Malaysia. But only in Sabah has it a local force. So, ten years after its formation, it is limited to winning Sabah and perhaps 15 parliamentary seats, out of nearly 200. That will take it nowhere.

Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the eminence grise of PKR and for many the opposition, is obviously cutting himself out. He himself admits not, but he continues to spend more time overseas than be the focal point for the opposition, as many of his acolytes claim he is. At his present conference, he talked of issues that were no longer current, raised issues that no longer were relevant, and continued to harp on old issues. He seemed out of touch. He appeared, to me at least, to be walking away. He is 60, would never be prime minister and knows it, and is looking a way out. He remains an adviser to PKR, where his wife is president, but his heart is not in it. He knows he can never make prime minister, except by fluke, and now concentrates on his activities elsewhere.

If the opposition ever forms the government, it would be headed by PAS. It has members who love Islam and this is reflected in its continued electoral strengths. But even it won power in Kelantan and Trengannu, in 1990 and 1999, because it was the only party around to benefit from UMNO's mistakes or misjudgements. Kelantan, Trengganu, Kedah, Perlis is where it expects to win. Its narrow political views make it difficult for it to forge alliances, and therefore it can only remain in the opposition in parliamentant, though they may control even four states. The other opposition parties will not join it, except perhaps PKR, because of this narrow Islamic viewpoint. But this will not prevent PAS being a political party. Its members are mutually hostile to UMNO, but has readjusted its policieis to take UMNO members in.

It is alone among opposition parties with a justified vision of governing itself. The other opposition parties exist because they are opposition parties, and would never be allowed to govern. It is stuck in the Malay heartland, and that would not give it enough seats to form the government on its own. The Malay is wedded to UMNO in the rest of Peninsular Malaysia, where PAS's Islamic views are not politically popular. Its membership will remain on the rise, as many in UMNO which do not like the turning of it into a religious party would rather join PAS. The other opposition parties do not figure in this equation at all.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com