MGG Pillai Commentary View

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The National Front has no hope if it cannot retain the support of the middle class

THE MIDDLE CLASS IS society's, to use a hackneyed phrase, engine of growth. Annoy it, and it is difficult to contain them. In India, the middle class provides the leadership of the masses, and keeps the government, and foreign investors, on their toes. The people do not like their rights or living taken but keep quiet because they do not have middle class leaders. In countries like Malaysia and Singapore, the government brings it into its fold by giving it wealth and privilege with promises that other would in time. This kept them away from politics, anti-government oppposition, leading the masses. The few who led opposition parties were allowed, to show the government is fair, but the leaders harassed so that others would not follow their lead. The governments are careful not to make them angry. The middle class, when given a choice between wealth without work especially by connections to authority and leading the masses would, invariably, join the former.

A few middle class men and women cannot make the change, but they can bring others in. Mr J.B. Jeyaratnam, a lawyer and former district judge, had that role in Singapore for 40 years, and remains, in his seventies, honest to his belief. His refusal to kow tow to the People Action Party government, taking official harassment and bankruptcy in his stride, has led others to join him the years that followed. What is remarkable is he is Indian in a Chinese society. Chee Soon Juan, a former university lecturer, is the modern, and Chinese, version. He is in the political dog house for his pains. The task is made easier over the years because the government makes policies often without thinking that upset the middle class. This has happened in Thailand, France, Italy, Nepal, countries in Latin America. Cuba would not be what it is if it had not been led by the middle class against the United States.

Globalisation will make that easier. In India, it cannot move as it likes because the middle class organised the masses in the early years of the last centry. India won independence because the people, energised by Gandhi and other leaders, wanted it. The government in power, British or Indian, accepted it. This middle class leadership caused difficulties for Coca Cola in Kerala, where the state government had given it a licence but the village panchayat in Pachymada, the site of the plant, objected. Globalisation is supported by governments but ignored by the middle class. In Africa, the middle class is with the government and which do not, in most countries, lead the masses. President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe remains in power even if the West would him to leave because he is backed by a significant middle class, besides the power to harass and ill treat.

In Thailand, the prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, was stopped in his tracks months after his return to power. The middle class, especially in Bangkok, went against him, and he went. The king played a conciliatory role, who decided in the end Thaksin should go. So it was in Italy, where the former prime minister Berlusconi, to remain in power, altered the rules so that the middle class who went overseas could vote, but who in the end turned him out. This has split Italy down the middle, but it showed the power of the middle class more than anything else. In the United States, President Bush is in trouble because the middle class in up in arms over government policies, of which Iraq though the most important is one of many. He faces difficulty in Iraq because the Iraqi middle class, bar those who joined the Americans for personal gain and power, are against the American occupation. Washington has finally realised that Iraq cannot be won, and amenable to bringing in others with more clout in the Middle East for talks on the future of the country.

In Malaysia, a middle class man united the people against the government. But the sacked deputy prime minister, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, could not do it alone. The government, then led by Tun Mahathir Mohamed, could not contain the demonstrations that resulted and used force to break them up. But the middle class leaders went back when Tun Mahathir resigned. UMNO under Pak Lah, who took over, got the biggest majority ever in the general elections of 2004. Datuk Seri Anwar and his men now is not sure he will see the support of those days. But Pak Lah will make sure. His government withdrew the 30 sen petrol subsidy, and will withdraw other subsidies in the coming years. The middle class is angry, more move against the government, including members of UMNO and the National Front.

Some of this middle class has provided leadership for the man-in-the-street. More would in time to come. A minister's aide threatened a reporter with detention without trial if she persisted in asking the minister about his mistress and their love house in a housing estate. Pak Lah's relative, who has acquired great wealth illegally by being who he is, now demands he should not be questioned. Any who does is threatened with defamation or other legal actions. It is a signal that criticisms by the middle class is hurting. But incidents like these will anger the middle class. What happened in Parliament this week is symbolic: debate on what a minister wears is more important than of the Ninth Malaysia Plan. The government could have escaped this had its leaders kept in their mind the importance of the middle class for their survival.

But opposition parties in Malaysia will not get a fillip unless middle class men and women not only support them but organise the masses. Many have joined the opposition PAS. That UMNO has had to reorient its policies to neutralise PAS and adopt policies which it hopes will detract people from it is a sign of changes the middle class has fostered. PAS is led today by middle class intellectuals, is more vibrant, forced the religious wing becoming less powerful. UMNO now changes its policies to meet PAS, faces a long and hard fight which will depend on UMNO. That will not come for another ten years at least, if at all.

What frightens the National Front and its component parties, including UMNO, is that the races in this country are being organised by the middle class away from the National Front. There is already talk of the National Front parties moving away from UMNO should it lead a losing coalition. I am now able to talk with members of the government party whether they would be in it should it lose the next elections. In the past, I would have been shown the door. A revolution is taking place in Malaysia, but it is not violent or public. The middle class, up to now the first beneficiaries of the government's largesse, is now not sure it is to their benefit if it supported the government. On that will depend the future of the National Front, and politics in this country.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@streamyx.com