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The Prime Minister Mulls Over His New Cabinet

The Prime Minister was in Myanmar last week, met Gen. Than Shwe, the head of state, and left on a sailing holiday around the Andaman Islands. We are told, though, he was in south Myanmar all the while. Unusually, no ministers, not even the foreign minister, Dato' Syed Hamid Albar, accompanied him, only officials. But his visit is an elaborate mask to mull over his new cabinet. He sails on a superluxury yacht of a tottering Bolehland tycoon, and again rumours, he returns this week in it, and is expected to return today in it.

Dato' Seri Mahathir Mohamed keeps cabinet and other appointments close to his chest. He makes up his mind, informs those affected though, often, not telling them of their portfolios, or even if they are to be dropped. So, rumours, often true, indicate what could happen. Since rumours spawns rumours, the list can be messy indeed. He usually goes out of the country before the expected cabinet reshuffle. The late Indian prime minister, Mrs Indira Gandhi, was so paranoid of the list being leaked that she was known to change the final list when she was on her way to the president's residence, Rashtrapati Bhavan, for the swearing-in. The mentri besar of Selangor, Dato' Khir Toyo, did not believe when told a day earlier he would succeed Dato' Abu Hassan Omar, and was glued to the television set to find out if it was true.

Surprises there would be. Not all to be dropped are deadwood, only politically inconvenient. The minister in the prime minister's department, Dato' Abdul Hamid Othman, has resigned, ineffective in countering PAS, as he was expected to, and politically neutered after he lost the Sik parliamentary seat to PAS's Dato' Shahnon Ahmad. He is expected to be non-executive chairman of Tabung Haji. Four others are expected to be dropped: UMNO secretary-general and federal information minister Tan Sri Khalil Ya'acob, culture and tourism minister Dato' Seri Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadhir. The second woman minister, Datin Siti Zaharah, is also expected to be dropped, replaced by promoting the deputy minister in the prime minister's department, Datin Shahrizat Jalil. A few deputy ministers could well be promoted.

Among new faces in the government are likely to be the former mentri besar of Selangor, Tan Sri Muhammad bin Taib; the UMNO executive secretary and a Vincent Tan business crony, Tengku Adnan bin Tengku Mansor, former editor-in-chief of the Utusan group of newspapers, Senator Zainuddin Mydin or Zam, as he is popularly known. Both are slated to be deputy ministers, one in the federal territory and the other in information.

Some ministers would move on to new portfolios. The international trade and industry minister, Datin Rafidah Aziz, is one. Her new portfolio is uncertain, as whether she would be retired altogether. Tan Sri Muhammad Taib is widely spoken of as her successor. She is a Mahathir loyalist long in the tooth and unpopular with both UMNO rank and file and the women's wing she heads. The minister in the prime minister's department, Dato' Rais Yatim, could get independent charge of a new justice or law ministry.

The deputy education minister, Dato' Aziz Shamsuddin, is said to move to home affairs either as minister or deputy. If as minister, the incumbent, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who is also deputy prime minister, could move, inexplicably, to finance; otherwise, one name mentioned for finance is Datin Rafidah. Whether Tun Daim Zainuddin remains in the cabinet or not depends on who spreads the rumours: one has it that he would step down; another that he would go on long leave. If the latter, he would continue to pull the strings from behind the scenes.

The Prime Minister's sudden visit to the Sultan of Johore in Johore Bahru before he left for Myanmar has, it is rumoured, to do with a replacement for Dato' Hamid Othman. He had all along wanted the Mufti of Johore as his religious affairs minister but he had not cleared this appointment with the sultan; so Dato' Hamid Othman was appointed. The mufti has an aggressive anti-PAS view of Islam and is brought in for that. If he is not appointed, Brig.-Gen. Hamid Zainal Abidin, a retired imam of the armed forces, could well be. He is now so unpopular with the Masjid Negara congregation that when he occasionally delivers the Friday sermon, the worshippers just walk away.

Malaysian cabinet reshuffles are a genteel form of musical chairs, rarely controversial, with new blood rarely allowed to filter through. This time around, he cannot afford not to make drastic changes. But, on current rumours, he plans to bring in more senators into the government, one that would upset the UMNO rank and file even more. If Mahathir does not handle this reshuffle carefully, he could find a revolt within the ranks led by those he kicks out.

M.G.G. Pillai
pillai@mgg.pc.my